Posted on 10/31/2007 1:17:10 PM PDT by Plutarch
Thompson might still be hanging in there in national polls , but those trading money on the probability of Thompson becoming the nominee are increasingly bearish on his chances.
At one point, the probability of Thompson winning the GOP nomination was trading at 35% at Intrade . Over the last month his position has deteriorated, and in the last several days crumbled.
At Intrade Thompson is trading at 8.4%. At Iowa Electronic Markets 7.1%,
The validity of future’s markets is sometimes questioned. No one was questioning them, however, when Fred was trading at 35% .
The buyers aren’t at all rational, in the economic sense. They aren’t putting their money at risk for nothing, they are doing so foolishly because, as usual, they don’t understand what’s going on. They didn’t understand what was going on with the Dems in 2003 and they don’t understand what’s going on with the Republicans in 2007. They are like the buyers of tulips in Holland during the 1630’s, bidding certain prices far higher than any rational calculation can justify.
When they do, plausible candidates can come from nowhere (let alone second place) to win.
***That’s why I’ve been saying Hunter is a bargain at less than 1%. Then, of course, the FredHeads will start focusing on the “plausible” aspect of your sentence and we all go round & round.
if it could be anyone then fred would take the hit as he would have most to lose
I tend to think if it were Fred it would be in the papers by now.
“all of this talk about polls is just noise.”
While futures markets CAN be a good indicator, stocks and stock markets crash all the time, even with very saavy investors.
Wasn’t one of these market-based indices predicting a Kerry win in 2004? And then go through crazy gyrations to catch up with reality?
AuntB, I used your link. In fairness, Fred did have some rather unsavory votes circa 1996 to 2000. I note that he also voted against the illegal alien also during that time frame in a few instances.
This makes me think there may have been more to some of these bills, than meets the eye.
I also believe that a person can change their mind over time and become a strident believer in a cause. Thompson has genuinely seemed to do this on immigration from my vantage point.
In 1990 I wasn’t a devout right to lifer. After being expose to the right to life arguements I became a strident right to life advocate.
Mind you, I have never advocated abortion. It had just been my view that it was a matter of choice. I couldn’t disagree with that more today.
Thompson seems anti-illegal immigrant today, and I don’t seem much in recent years to deter that opinion.
This is true. They don't discuss the invasion of our borders on Law and Order.
Then on what basis should the voters assess his potential? On the promise that he's going to grow into being a leader after he's elected?
Where's the evidence of leadership potential? Exactly what element of his backgound and/or experience would lead one to believe that he's ever done anything original or noteworthy? Something that might provide a glimpse of his potential to the country and the free world?
A reasonable post. Certainly, people can have a change of heart, and we ought to embrace their conversion if it has been to the good.
Here's what I can't stomach at FR: the screeching hypocrites who scream "Flip-flip! Flip-flop! Flip-Flop!" in Romney's case but say, "Fred flip-flop? Nonsense. Why, he's just gotten wiser in recent years" when confronted with the same pattern of changed positions in Fred's case.
I don't know if you're one of those hypocrites. I'll leave you to do your own self-assessment.
No longer is Thompson within a 1/2 point of Ron Paul. Ron Paul has passed Thompson, and is nearly a point ahead!
I’m not sure about the accuracy of the market traders for the Democratic field in the 2004 Presidential Election.
What I concentrated on was President Bush vs. the yet unknown Democratic Nominee, and later, President Bush vs. John Kerry. From my recollection, President Bush had a solid lead one year out from the General Election. In addition, my study was on the expected Bush Electoral Votes on a state by state basis, not just predicting the overall winner.
I would guess that Howard Dean was in the lead for the Democratic nomination until his Iowa meltdown, but that is just pure speculation on my part.
I wonder if Intrade or IEM would provide historical data on the 2004 Presidential race?
Thanks.
A Mayor? Puhlease.
McCain? Who?
AuntB, Hunter isn’t going to pull this off. I wish he would but I think you realize this also. What we are left with is Huckabee or Thompson. IMO, Thompson is the best between those two.
If you have something better to offer, I’d like to hear it.
Oh undoubtedly I am. I understand why some would find that appauling. In the case of Romney, his state run healthcare plan disqualifies him. If anyone thinks I’m going to vote for a guy that would install a socialist healthcare program on a national level, they’ve guaged me wrongly.
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