I’m not sure about the accuracy of the market traders for the Democratic field in the 2004 Presidential Election.
What I concentrated on was President Bush vs. the yet unknown Democratic Nominee, and later, President Bush vs. John Kerry. From my recollection, President Bush had a solid lead one year out from the General Election. In addition, my study was on the expected Bush Electoral Votes on a state by state basis, not just predicting the overall winner.
I would guess that Howard Dean was in the lead for the Democratic nomination until his Iowa meltdown, but that is just pure speculation on my part.
I wonder if Intrade or IEM would provide historical data on the 2004 Presidential race?
Thanks.