"20%? What's a girl to do?"
Posted on 10/01/2007 12:30:15 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
In South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Fred Thompson leading Rudy Giuliani 24% to 20%. That’s little changed from a month ago when Thompson held a 23% to 21% advantage. Mitt Romney has moved into third place and is now supported by 15% of South Carolina’s Likely Primary Voters while John McCain is barely in double digits at 11% support.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee earns 3% of the South Carolina vote while four other candidates split 5% and 22% are undecided.
Sixty-three percent (63%) of the state’s Republican Primary voters say that Giuliani is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if he becomes the Republican nominee. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say the same about Thompson. Just 48% think Romney is at least somewhat likely to win it all and only 39% have such confidence in McCain. Nationally, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican and Thompson as the most conservative.
Just 19% of South Carolina’s Republican Primary voters believe Thompson waited too long to enter the race. Three times as many, 57%, believe that the other candidates started campaigning too soon. A recent Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 56% of voters say the campaign so far has been annoying and a waste of time.
Giuliani is viewed favorably by 71% of the state’s likely primary voters, Thompson by 70%. A month ago, Giuliani was viewed favorably by 76%, Thompson by 68%. Twenty-six percent (26%) have an unfavorable opinion of the former New York City Mayor while 20% offer a negative assessment of Thompson.
Romney is viewed favorably by 62%, unfavorably by 29%. The perceptions of McCain are more harsh—56% favorable and 40% unfavorable.
While Thompson holds a slight lead in South Carolina, Romney leads in New Hampshire, and Giuliani in Florida. The “leads” in all three states are in mid-single digits meaning that the race remains amazingly fluid and competitive. Thompson and Giuliani lead in national polling but there is no clear frontrunner.
In South Carolina, Thompson leads by ten among men but Giuliani has a two-point advantage among women. Thompson leads by ten among conservatives while Giuliani leads among the smaller number of moderates and liberal Republicans. These patterns are similar to what is found in national polling on the race.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
This telephone survey of 863 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 26-27, 2007. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
I agree about that other poll that was put up tonight. There were too many month to month jumps on it. Absent a scandal, the gradual movements shown on this one look more realistic.
At least we can agree that we want any one of the trio of Romney and Rudy and McCain knocked out of the first position.
Rasmussen tends to screen respondents more rigorously for the elusive “likely voter”. That is why they tend to differ(and are usually more accurate)
"20%? What's a girl to do?"
You’re welcome, I’m glad it’s helping.
Such early polls don’t mean a great deal. Still, it’s at least as usefull as a poll showingt Romney’s stock valued tripling in the blink of an eye.
It’s nice to see Romney starting to gain the traction that he deserves.
I don't see it... especially Giuliani. On guns, gays and illegals... this nut-case is a disaster. Voting for Romney, on the other hand, would be a gamble at best. So much of his campaign is based on how he feels now... and little about what he's actually accomplished as Governor(next-to-nothing).
Why McCain is even a blip on the radar is an anathema to me.
Thompson should win comfortably in SC... and pick up the Romney/McCain voters as the primary moves on.
They knew it was BS, but pretended to believe it. I was really surprised not one Romney supporter wanted to bet me Thompson would kick Romney's butt in SC. Romney supporters are as disingenuous as their candidate.
Rudy will have to be stopped in SC by a vote for Thompson if I were tactically voting against more liberal candidates.
I wish all the big names would go away and we could find a better candidate.
Well, like any typical 'female' when bad news hits ....
You Go Shopping!!
"Thank You Sir, I'll Take Three of These."
Sending Rudy/Romney into the south to defeat Fred is roughly equivalent to sending George B. McClellan and Ambrose Burnside to take care of Nathan Bedford Forrest. The result “won’t be pretty.”
The way Fred has been conducting his campaign recently, if he somehow manages to win the nomination then Hillary would win in a landslide.
Fred needs to sharpen and quit being so lazy, this is a Presidential election and not a election for a small town mayor.
The way Fred has been conducting his campaign recently, if he somehow manages to win the nomination then Hillary would likely win in a landslide.
Fred needs to sharpen and quit being so lazy, this is a Presidential election and not a election for a small town mayor.
Fred needs to sharpen and quit being so lazy, this is a Presidential election and not a election for a small town mayor.
My goodness you're kidding right!!!
ARG is consistently bullish on Romney... I'm not sure what in their methodology does that, but ARG results are generall out of line with everyone else for that reason.
Is there anyone here that's EVER been South of the Mason-Dixon line that thinks Rudy or Romney beats Fred in a Southern or border state?
I've been saying that the only states east of, and including, Texas and south of the Mason-Dixon line that aren't "slam dunks" for Thompson unless something goes badly wrong for him, are Virgina and Florida (I should probably add Maryland, too).
It’s nice to see Romney starting to gain the traction that he deserves.
Why does he “deserve” it?
The advance of Romney in this poll suggests the ARG poll was not completely absurd. There clearly has been an improvement in Romney’s numbers in SC, probably due to a media buy of whatever size. He may have visited there recently.
I will say that folks need to keep their minds wrapped around Iraq. Iraq is rapidly unfolding as a victory. The climate next year is going to be a great deal different than now with victory parades on TV. All the presumptions about loss of seats and Hillary’s inevitability will be undone.
It ALL DEPENDS on getting funding out of Congress. Unfortunately the Democrats are rapidly seeing the box they are in . . . that they have to vote to fund their own defeat.
If Iraq victory is funded, any of these GOP candidates will do well — assuming Thompson can stay healthy. I will remind everyone that winning states does not take all the delegates. Close contests . . . consistently close . . . does not generate delegate momentum. Romney winning Iowa and NH will generate a few delegates but not outright victory. Thompson winning SC by a few % will do the same thing, a handful of delegates with Guilliani and Romney picking up a few too.
The key state is unfolding to be Michigan. Michigan is huge. It is the replacement Electoral Votes for Ohio if the enormous Dem effort to take Ohio’s EVs is successful (and likely will be). Romney was born in Michigan.
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