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It’s nice to see Romney starting to gain the traction that he deserves.

Not with Gallup! Gallup seems to see Guiliani ahead on most everything...BUT if you look further on page two of the article, you find this: Giuliani's current frontrunner status is no doubt aided by the fact that he is among the best known Republican candidates. Thompson and Romney remain unfamiliar figures to more than one-third of Republicans, and it is certainly possible that as they become better known their support could increase nationally. Indeed, among Republicans who have an opinion of the four leading candidates -- less than half the party base -- the ballot looks very different, with Thompson at 33% support, Giuliani at 26%, Romney at 15%, and McCain at 10%.

Additionally, from the article:Thompson appears to be the greatest threat to Giuliani's winning the nomination at this stage of the campaign, particularly since he is already competitive with Giuliani among some of the most important Republican subgroups. Though, he remains unknown to a large segment of the population. However, the actor and former Tennessee senator has yet to make any significant gains in the national polls since he officially entered the race earlier this month. If he can become better known over the next few months, he may well pass Giuliani.

Polling methods:"These results are based on of 1,690 combined telephone interviews with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, from randomly selected national samples conducted in August and September 2007. (Note the poll dates.) For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

Margins of error for subgroups of Republicans will be larger, in most cases between ±4 percentage points and ±6 percentage points.

Republican Nomination Preference by Ideological Self-Identification
	Moderate/Liberal Republicans N=544
	%
Giuliani	38
Thompson	17
McCain	16
Romney	9

	Conservative Republicans N=1,131
	%
Giuliani	30
Thompson	23
McCain	15
Romney	10

Religion

For more than two decades, the Republican Party has been closely aligned with conservative religious individuals and groups. There has been considerable media speculation that religious Republicans are not overly enthusiastic about any of the leading Republican candidates for the 2008 nomination, given some of their past positions on moral values issues. While their ballot choice cannot speak to that directly, the data do show that Giuliani does not fare as well among religious Republicans as he does among other constituencies within the party. Specifically, Giuliani (27%) and Thompson (24%) are running about neck-and-neck among the most religious Republicans -- those who attend church on a weekly basis. McCain is third among this key group, while Romney and former Arkansas Gov. and ordained minister Mike Huckabee essentially tie for fourth.

Among less religious Republicans, Giuliani is the clear leader, with double-digit leads.

Republican Nomination Preference by Frequency of Church Attendance

	Attend Church Weekly N=689
	%
Giuliani	27
Thompson	24
McCain	17
Romney	9
Huckabee	7

	Attend Monthly N=396
	%
Giuliani	33
Thompson	18
McCain	16
Romney	14

	Seldom/Never Attend N=577
	%
Giuliani	39
Thompson	20
McCain	13
Romney	8

Historically, every Republican nominee for president to this point has been of a Protestant faith. So it is notable that the group of leading contenders for next year's nomination includes a Catholic (Giuliani) and a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints (Romney). Giuliani leads the field by a wide 26-point margin among Republican Catholics. But he has a much smaller 5-point lead among Republican Protestants (including those who identify as "Christian" but do not mention a specific Christian denomination).

Romney is supported by 8% of Republican Protestants, not appreciably worse than his showing among Republicans more generally. That is notable because Gallup research has shown that a majority of Protestants have a negative view of the Mormon religion.

Republican Nomination Preference by Religious Affiliation

	Protestant/"Christian" N=765
	%
Giuliani	28
Thompson	23
McCain	17
Romney	8


	Catholic N=273
	%
Giuliani	44
Thompson	18
McCain	13
Romney	13

Region

Much of the Republican Party's success in electoral politics can be attributed to its strength in the South. Thus, it is important for a Republican presidential candidate to demonstrate an appeal to Southerners. Giuliani and Thompson have been running even among Republicans living in the South, with McCain and in particular Romney trailing by significant margins there.

As is usually the case in nomination campaigns, there is a strong element of a "native son" effect in support for the various candidates. Thompson (the South), Giuliani (the Northeast), and McCain (the West) all have the greatest support in their home regions. Romney's best showings are in the Northeast -- the home region for the former Massachusetts governor -- and in the West, which has a large population of Mormons and where he is known for his leadership of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Republican Nomination Preference by Region of the Country

	Northeast N=327
	%
Giuliani	43
McCain	14
Thompson	14
Romney	13

	Midwest N=365
	%
Giuliani	34
Thompson	17
McCain	16
Romney	9

	South N=616
	%
Thompson	28
Giuliani	28
McCain	12
Romney	6

	West N=382
	%
Giuliani	28
McCain	19
Thompson	18
Romney	14

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Gallup