ARG is consistently bullish on Romney... I'm not sure what in their methodology does that, but ARG results are generall out of line with everyone else for that reason.
Is there anyone here that's EVER been South of the Mason-Dixon line that thinks Rudy or Romney beats Fred in a Southern or border state?
I've been saying that the only states east of, and including, Texas and south of the Mason-Dixon line that aren't "slam dunks" for Thompson unless something goes badly wrong for him, are Virgina and Florida (I should probably add Maryland, too).
The advance of Romney in this poll suggests the ARG poll was not completely absurd. There clearly has been an improvement in Romney’s numbers in SC, probably due to a media buy of whatever size. He may have visited there recently.
I will say that folks need to keep their minds wrapped around Iraq. Iraq is rapidly unfolding as a victory. The climate next year is going to be a great deal different than now with victory parades on TV. All the presumptions about loss of seats and Hillary’s inevitability will be undone.
It ALL DEPENDS on getting funding out of Congress. Unfortunately the Democrats are rapidly seeing the box they are in . . . that they have to vote to fund their own defeat.
If Iraq victory is funded, any of these GOP candidates will do well — assuming Thompson can stay healthy. I will remind everyone that winning states does not take all the delegates. Close contests . . . consistently close . . . does not generate delegate momentum. Romney winning Iowa and NH will generate a few delegates but not outright victory. Thompson winning SC by a few % will do the same thing, a handful of delegates with Guilliani and Romney picking up a few too.
The key state is unfolding to be Michigan. Michigan is huge. It is the replacement Electoral Votes for Ohio if the enormous Dem effort to take Ohio’s EVs is successful (and likely will be). Romney was born in Michigan.