Flashpoint: Taiwan Straits. The ROCN vs the PLAN

ROCN vs PLAN - Taiwan Straits ^ | June 10, 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

I am putting together a comprehensive comparison and analysis site regarding the face off in the Taiwan Starits between the Taiwan Navy (ROCN) and the Red Chinese Navy (PLAN).

I include in the analysis and the comparison, the likely surface combatants that the US would send to the assistance of Taiwan in the event of agression by the Red Chinese.

Please take a look by clicking on the logo below and let me know what you think:

Also, please feel free to refer others who have questions or interest regarding this potential flashpoint in toda6y's world.

It is clear, in the event of war, that the Taiwan navy would need the US assistance in order to hold out very long.

[Jeff Head]

I believe that the LA class will figure most prominently in any operations against the PLAN in the near future. As time goes on, I will change the analysis to look at the Virginia's, but quite frankly, given the realtive disparity between the ADCAP LAs and the PLAN as it is, the analysis will not change markedly with the Virginia's.

Oh, it will improve for the US alright...but it will not be dramatic over the dramtic difference US intervention will already make.

The SSGNs will be involved...but there involvement will not be one in any kind of strike at sea mode...which is really what the site is about. They would be lobbing TALMs from far away at land targets if they got involved...probably port or support facilities for the PLAN or PLAAF.

[Strategerist]

The problem is clearing mines isn’t cool. Mineclearing vessels tend to be slow and dumpy-looking.

Ever seen mineclearing on a Navy recruiting commericial?

Clearing mines is tedious, slow, dull, and dangerous work. And nobody gets to be CNO or top Admiral by being a mineclearing specialist.

However, there’s been some neat advancements in using UUVs (unmanned underwater vehicles) for mineclearing, and a new helicopter-mounted gun that shoots supercavitating bullets that can travel long distances underwater, to blow up mines quickly. And the first LCS module will be a mineclearing module.

[PAR35]

The current USN has far more actual combat capability than the USN in 1988, any way you look at it.

Statements like that remind me of the Czarist navy circa 1903. Everyone knew that they could beat the Japanese.

Of course, you are right. 10 carriers can be as many places as 13, 54 submarines can do as much as 100, and the current cruisers can stay in action without refueling as long as the nuclear powered ones could. And let's not forget that the top gun in the navy has grown from those puny 16 inchers to the powerful 5 inch guns.

[redlegplanner]

A thought. Note last line - of course we would never let a civilian vessel carrying mines into our harbors. Brought to you by the same department that keeps out TB patients...

China has thousands of contact mines based on old Soviet technology, but it also boasts newer magnetic and acoustic combination types. The export of EM-52 rocket boost rising mines to Iran several years ago highlighted modern advances in PLAN naval mines. The EM-52 can be laid in waters down to 110 meters deep, and it has an electronic trigger for its 140-kilogram warhead. Soviet ADM or MDM series mine copies are common, and they can have air-, ship- or submarine-launched variants.

The units to lay mines off of target areas, such as Taiwan ports, likely would not be mine warfare vessels. The PLAN has several options among other naval assets. About 150 maritime patrol aircraft and naval bombers can carry several mines. For example, China’s H-5 bomber can carry six Chinese copies of the ADM-500 type mines. More than 90 PLAN submarines can sow mines in complete secrecy. Earlier Type 033 Romeo boats can carry 28 mines, and newer diesel and nuclear boats can carry 32 mines each. A variety of surface warships are equipped to lay mines. The modern 24 Jianghu frigates can carry 60 mines, and older frigates and 60 Hainan patrol craft can carry 30 mines each. The 15 large Luda-class guided missile destroyers can carry 38 mines, and more than 300 Shanghai II patrol boats can carry 12 mines each. Of note is the fact that most sea mines laid worldwide since 1950 have been by merchant ships, fishing trawlers or junks. China has thousands of these vessels available.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Quix]

Congrats.

Good work as usual.

More power to you.

[Captainpaintball]

Although I ALWAYS value your posts and analysis, I’m starting to fear that this battle will will be won without firing a shot.

[hinckley buzzard]

And since 1950, of the 19 USN ships destroyed or damaged, 14 of them were by mines.

Not to mention, the mining of Haiphong harbor did more to end the VietNam hostilities than any other single intervention.

I am surprised that wargaming of an attack on Taiwan omits a counterattack on the Three Gorges Dam, an extremely vulnerable target and the source of 10% of the total energy generation of the entire Chinese mainland.

[hinckley buzzard]

And let's not forget that the top gun in the navy has grown from those puny 16 inchers to the powerful 5 inch guns.

It's the age of the Carrier now. Battleships with 16 inch guns are obsolete. Equip them with cruise missiles and you have a different story, but ship-to-ship artillery showed itself to be a failure in WW II sixty-odd years ago. The Japanese battlewagons with 18 inch guns were sunk by submarines and aircraft without ever bringing their massive arms to bear.

[PAR35]

but ship-to-ship artillery showed itself to be a failure in WW II sixty-odd years ago. The Japanese battlewagons with 18 inch guns were sunk by submarines and aircraft without ever bringing their massive arms to bear.

And battleships with 18 and 16 inch guns sank the carrier USS Gambier Bay and its escorts armed with 5 inch guns and torpedos.

[timer]

Ah yes, you are RIGHT : MINES. And yet they have limitations too : only useful in limited areas like ports(no one can cover the whole ocean with mines)and if they drift you could have a friendly fire sinking. Plus I’m sure there are defensive measures that can be taken against floating or submerged mines, WW II was 60 years ago, marine technology/development didn’t STOP when it did.

Be as it may, how versed in marine transportation are you? I’d like to run a few ideas by you, in a private post.

[Tainan]

Excellent points all. Blocking Taiwan harbors while effectively halting air traffic into the island would create economic havoc.
Not to mention the psychological toll on the island populace.

[SauronOfMordor]

Otherwise, they lack the sensors, the radar, and the range that they will need from the larger vessels to take advantage of their numbers.

The main things the bigger vessels seem to bring to the table are high-power radar and other sensors, plus the computing power to sort out threats and pass targeting data to other vessels.

But what if a breakthrough occurs from thinking outside the box. How about an expendable cruise missile with a powerful radar? Send a swarm of them in the general direction of our fleet, and they only need to survive long enough to detect and relay the positions of our ships to a swarm of small ships packed with missiles.

[Captain Rhino]

Yes, I was aware that the Kitty Hawk CSG is homeported in Japan. But, IIRC, it serves in rotation with other CSGs supporting the Indian Ocean presence mission. My assumption was that the responding CSG(s) would have to respond from either the IO or West Coast, a fairly long transit even at the reputed high speeds that these ships can make. If the Kitty Hawk CSG was much nearer, the PLAN would be even more conscious of the very limited time they would have to win the naval portion of a campaign to take Taiwan.

This, of course, does raise the possible role of Japan in such a conflict.

[grey_whiskers]

The US won't intervene. Most Favored Nation, etc.

Taiwan is TOAST.

(Unless we slip a couple of nukes to Japan, for them to use. Wink, nudge.)

Cheers!

[texas booster]

Ah, the Japanese SDF. Are they a real force, due to the threat of PRNK, or are they a safe spot to leapfrog up the military chain of command to a cushy job?

What other navies in the area would possibly fight against the PLAN, if they were not attacked personally?

Would the Royal Navy have assets that could be deployed?

And would Russia take advantage of a great situation to pile on the USA?

[Bender2]

Bump for later read

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

If the neo-cons in this administration had their way, your project might already be outdated, if ya know what I mean...

[Jeff Head]

The ROKN may also get involved...in fact, my guess is that they could be even more likely to do so than the JMSDF.

At the same time, not too long ago in Australia, the Japanese and the US jointly announced that the peace and status quo of Taiwan was in both nation's military interests.

[tanknetter]

The SSGNs will be involved...but there involvement will not be one in any kind of strike at sea mode...which is really what the site is about. They would be lobbing TALMs from far away at land targets if they got involved...probably port or support facilities for the PLAN or PLAAF.

Thanks, for that, Jeff. Considering the following, though - The US puts two Ohio SSGNs into the Straight to either conduct no-notice TLAM attacks on ChiCom coastal facilities, or to hit targets much deeper in the interior.

My guess is that if the PLAN thinks the Ohios are inside the Strait, sinking them becomes an overwhelmingly signficant priority. It'll really change how they deploy their assets.

Reference, for example, the impact the Doolittle Raid had on the Japanese - compelling them to bring lots of aviation assets back to the home islands and spurring Yamamoto to press ahead with an invasion of Midway.

The questions then are whether the USN would put the Ohios into the Strait, and then if they would be able to protect them enough to make the risk worth it (possibly assigning a Seawolf to ride shotgun on each Ohio?). Having a significant portion of the PLAN ASW force drawn off into beating the bushes for the Ohios would probably make it worth it ... especially if the PLAN can be convinced that the Ohio(s) is at location X, and in trying to get there they run smack dab into a wolfpack of 688Is.