Flashpoint: Taiwan Straits. The ROCN vs the PLAN

ROCN vs PLAN - Taiwan Straits ^ | June 10, 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

I am putting together a comprehensive comparison and analysis site regarding the face off in the Taiwan Starits between the Taiwan Navy (ROCN) and the Red Chinese Navy (PLAN).

I include in the analysis and the comparison, the likely surface combatants that the US would send to the assistance of Taiwan in the event of agression by the Red Chinese.

Please take a look by clicking on the logo below and let me know what you think:

Also, please feel free to refer others who have questions or interest regarding this potential flashpoint in toda6y's world.

It is clear, in the event of war, that the Taiwan navy would need the US assistance in order to hold out very long.

[Jeff Head]

For those interested.

[Jeff Head]

FYI...my latest.

[Palladin]

Thanks for the ping.

This should be very interesting.

Bookmarking for later...

[Jeff Head]

Thanks...hope you enjoy it. Let me know what you think. Ultimately I will also have detail pages up there about the various SS (diesel submarine) and SSN (US nuclear submarine) classes.

[Mariner]

It's also clear that the ROC will have to make an accomodation with PRC.

If it was Hawaii...just 100 miles off the coast of the US, and they had a communist form of govt militarily supplied by the US...they would be in deep sh*t too.

[Edward Watson]

Can you include a summary paragraph in plain English? What exactly is your conclusion as to who will win the conflict given current forces in the region?

[Jeff Head]

The ROC already has made significant accomodation and does a lot of business with the PRC.

However, when it comes to political leadership and governmental form, I do not think the ROC should or will make an accomodation short of the PRC itself becoming a free nation politically itself.

Furthermore, I think the US should support them in that and allow them to remain autonomous from Beijing in that regard until such time that the PRC itself changes internally. Anyhting short of that would be an abject betrayal of millions of people who are free, and who have embraced our own form of a constitutional Republic and would reverberate negativel in our own foreign policy for decades to come.

[Jeff Head]

Without US intervention, the PLAN naval force will overcome and defeat the ROCN naval forces. The number disparity, and growing numbers of brand new, high tech vessels on the PRC side are just too great. They would win a war of attrition, but not without significant loss.

The same thing is occurring regarding the Air force side of the equation.

Both sea dominance and air dominance would be required by the PRC before they could attempt to cross the straits and invade and install their own government.

I hope and pray that does not happen...and should it do so, I also believe the US would intervene.

The numbers also indicate that a US Carrier Strike Group (CSG) supported by 4-6 Los Angeles Class submarines, would completely turn the conflict in favor of the ROCN.

[stefanbatory]

Did someone in the PLAN finally read Mahan’s book?

Or perhaps The Bear and the Dragon?

[InMemoriam]

The numbers also indicate that a US Carrier Strike Group (CSG) supported by 4-6 Los Angeles Class submarines, would completely turn the conflict in favor of the ROCN.

Funny that you should mention Los Angeles in the context of turning the tide in such a conflict.

The Chinese military does, too, as you know.

[texas booster]

I see a lot of discussion regarding Chinese vessels and their combat rating.

Even a small ship could take modern missiles and attempt to overwhelm defenses with sheer numbers. Modern missiles are also much harder to kill.

How does your analysis account for small vessels that pack a wallop?

[Forward the Light Brigade]

I believe that if Red China does attack Taiwan it will come like a theif in the night. The war will be won in hours, not days. There will me those in Taiwan who will welcome the Red Chinese with a parade. They will also, I feel, only attack if America is distracted someplace else in the world. They don’t want to lose their biggest customer.

[Jeff Head]

The analysis focuses, as it indicates, on the major combatants. For the smaller vessels to survive, the major combatatnts are going to have to square off because they support them.

The analysis does not take into account the many smaller vessels each side has. IMHO, if one side ot the other emerges with significant advantage in the major combatant area, then the smaller comatants will be able to take advantage of and exploit that opening.

Otherwise, they lack the sensors, the radar, and the range that they will need from the larger vessels to take advantage of their numbers.

[Captain Rhino]

Jeff,

Based on a very quick (and I mean very quick) look at your report, it appears that the United States would need to keep a USN SAG more or less permanently on station in the Western Pacific region in order to create enough uncertainty concerning the outcome to make the PLAN reluctant to commit to a military solution to the “reunification problem.” Obviously, a responsible US President would dispatch a CSG (perhaps more than one) as soon as the situation dictated. Its arrival (in combination with the ROCN and the previous USN SAG) would tip the balance decisively in favor of the ROC/US coalition. (Oops! My bad. You can’t have a coalition with a province. Well, whatever.)

So the questions are: 1) Is the US keeping a SAG in the Western Pacific on a more or less permanent basis, 2) how long would the ROCN/USN combination have to hold out until (pardon the metaphor) the calvary arrives and, 3) what are the logical counter moves by both the ROCN and the PLAN to tip the odds more in their favor.

The obvious PLAN move is what they are presently doing; developing a CSG (or multiple CSGs) of their own. But I would also be surprised if they didn’t also significantly improve their ability to conduct deep ocean deployment of multiple SSNs for the interception of approaching USN CSG elements.

Now, what are the logical ROCN countermoves?

(P.S.: Thanks for your hard work on putting the analysis together.)

[Jeff Head]

The US is in the process of building up its forces in the WestPac, particularly around Guam. I believe we are doing this to send a message to the PRC.

In addition, the ROC is well enough armed, with dispersed forces and heavily fortified, mountain air bases and what not to avoid being wiped out and overcome in a few hours.

If the ROC can hold out three to four days or a week (an I believe they can) then the US intervention would make the difference.

I think it is likely that there will be significant distractions...I think it is equally likely that the PRC will hedge its bets and wait until another "Clinton-type" US administration is in place that will be less likely to intervene in any case.

[Tainan]

Thanks Jeff.

[Jeff Head]

The US has one Carrier Battle Group that it keeps permanently stationed away from the US...and it is USS Kitty Hawk stationed in Japan.

We have considered stationing a second...and another Carrier group has been added to the Pacific...but to date, a second has not been moved to WestPac.

But the Kitty Hawk, and its replacement this year, the nuclear powered carrier, the USS George Washington, could impact the situation in a matter of hours.

[BnBlFlag]

Why don’t the Taiwanese develop a sense of urgency and start a crash program to bolster their Armed Forces to acceptable or greater levels? They’ve got plenty of money.

[Jeff Head]

The Republic of China has been spending beaucoup money to bollster their defenses. The have Partriot batteries...most of their navy has been purchased or license built, they have built their own indigenous fighters and purchased ours (F16s). Billions have been spent.

They are a small island of 22 million, so they do not have a bottomless treaasure chest...but per capita, they are probably amongst the best armed nations in the world.

[sport]

“There will me those in Taiwan who will welcome the Red Chinese with a parade.”

I agree.

For that matter, there are those in the U.S. that would celebrate a muslim take over of the U.S. They would not be muslims or illegals either. They are so called American citizens, members of the Democrat Party or one of its satellite groups.