Analysis: Outsiders Obama, Giuliani surging in 2008 races

CNN ^ | February 28, 2007 | Bill Schneider

[Aussie Dasher]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Who's got the heat for 2008? One Democrat and one Republican. And in one case, it's coming from a surprising place.

The 2008 races on the Republican and the Democratic side are taking on a familiar shape -- an establishment candidate and an outsider in each party. And right now, the outsiders have the heat.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's the establishment Democrat.

In last month's Washington Post-ABC News poll, Clinton had a big lead over outsider Illinois Sen. Barack Obama -- 40 percent to 17 percent.

In the Washington Post-ABC News poll published Wednesday, Clinton is still ahead, but Obama's gaining ground. Clinton's lead is down to 12 points -- 36 percent to 24 percent.

The poll's margin of error in regard to questions about Democrats was plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.

The most dramatic pickup for Obama has been among blacks. Last month, Clinton led Obama among black Democrats by three to one -- 60 percent to 20 percent. Now, Obama leads Clinton among black Democrats 44 percent to 33 percent.

[Aussie Dasher]

Surely, there MUST be someone better?????

[Aussiebabe]

Rudd?

[Aussie Dasher]

Only if he can take on Brian Burke as an advisor!!!! :-)

[Aussiebabe]

I am sure he was only trying to get advice on how to get Labor out of the "Three Mines Policy". LOL

[Aussie Dasher]

You should tell him that. He's desperate for ANYTHING that might get him off the hook at the minute!

[highlander_UW]

America is doomed.

[syriacus]

The word is in...It's all right that Obama's father was a polygamist, but it's not okay that Romney's great-great grandfather was one.

[Hydroshock]

Duncan Hunter

[marsh_of_mists]

Duncan Hunter, Duncan Hunter, Duncan Hunter. For Duncan Hunter to have a chance someone actually needs to mention him outside this website.

[MSF BU]

Obviously this means that most of what distinguished Ronald Reagan from the rest of the pack is now inoperable. I'm still voting for Hunter. I'm sending him more money as well.

[nctexan]

"It's all right that Obama's father was a polygamist...

We need to fully understanding the activities of Obama's great-great-grandfather.

I can imagine that as a muslim in Africa at that time would have some interesting 'history'.

[Hydroshock]

They are I assure you. Keep in mind that at this time in 1991 a certain Governor of Arkansas was only at 2% in the polls.

[Corin Stormhands]

Rudy signal ping.

[period end of story]

For Duncan Hunter to have a chance someone actually needs to mention him outside this website.

Regardless, he'll have to hang in there and wait for some of the frontrunners to slip-up. If he can gain support little by little, he may be able to build up some momentum and surprise some people.

[X-Ecutioner]

Obama beats Ruddy according to the new gallop poll...

[deport]

New York, New York appears to be in the making, reckon?

---

Without Gingrich (recalculated, based on second choice of Gingrich voters):

					.
		2/22-25/07
		%
	Rudy Giuliani	53
	John McCain	23
	Mitt Romney	5
	Sam Brownback	2
	Mike Huckabee	2
	Tommy Thompson	2
	Chuck Hagel	1
	George Pataki	1
	Ron Paul	1
	Tom Tancredo	1
	Jim Gilmore	-
	Duncan Hunter	-
	None of these (vol.)	2
	Wouldn't vote (vol.)	1
	Unsure	5

[Nephi]

If Bill Schnieder calls them outsiders they surely mustn't be.

[BackInBlack]

No, no, no. I'm sure of this: Giuliani has no chance. None. Right now he has high name recognition, but Joe Sixpack has no idea what his views are on gays and abortion, let alone his three divorces.

Remember, at this time in 2003, and even by November, Joe Lieberman was leading the national polls among Democrats. People knew who he was, but didn't know yet that he had a mind of his own, which of course is anathema to the Dem base.

We have nothing to worry about. Rudy will fall.

[dirtboy]

Right now he has high name recognition, but Joe Sixpack has no idea what his views are on gays and abortion, let alone his three divorces.

And now it turns out Rudy was opposed to the Vietnam War as well - and got a deferrment with the help of the judge he was clerking for.

[AFPhys]

He wins easily in New Jersey, according to this:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1793247/posts

I somehow doubt that Gallup has this one right.