Posted on 11/05/2006 3:16:09 PM PST by Oakleaf
Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans.
As you know, I like to whack around pollsters like a pinata, but Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.
Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio. (Who was writing last night Ohio had turned into a single-digit race?) (Interestingly, they saw no tightening in Pennsylvania; Santorum went from -12 to -13.) Brown is still the favorite, but DeWine can take some solace in the fact that the numbers are turning his direction in these final days.
The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Chafee had been down pretty big for a while. But as a buddy of mine noted, Chafee's a well-established, well-respected family name; those names don't often get blown out by 10 to 14 points. (I could see the argument that between a liberal Republican and a liberal Democrat, voters will pick the Democrat, but as we saw in the primary, Chafee's got a better connection to this community than we expected.) Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.
In Arizona, M-D has Jon Kyl up 8, suggesting that spending $1 million at the last minute may be a decision that Chuck Schumer comes to regret, particularly if a race like Rhode Island gets fumbled.
M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.
Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.
In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.
Worst sign for Republicans? Another poll showing Virginia nearly tied, M-D showing Webb by 1. It's gonna be a close race, and from my mailbag, the NoVa Democrats are fired up. Allen had better hope his get-out-the-vote effort works a heck of a lot better than the rest of his campaign has worked so far.
And not surprising, Arlen Specter has been the invisible man in this campaign. For some reason, Santorum campaigned his ass off for Specter last time, but Specter is nowhere to be found now. ...NOT TRUE!
Toomey has done a radio commercial and probably more that I don't know.
Specter has done everything he could to help Rick. He has made calls, written opeds, raised money, held fundraisers, spoken to group after group, taped ads, gone on talk radio, on tv and everyplace else he could go to make sure Santorum is reelected.
I don't know, the democrats and the Washington Post put an all-out blitz on the guy, and he didn't help himself with his campaign.
In VA we have been treated to a ton of cheap political ads that have turned people off. Allen has done a pretty poor job of convincing people he's their man even after the success he had as governor. That the media has teamed up with Webb to take Allen out of office has hurt Allen tremendously. This state has gone democrat for the State House for the past few elections and NOVA is overrun with demorats. I think Webb takes it by a nose unfortunately.
Hey, I even think Chris Shays is going to make it.
Old George has not run a good campaign in a state that has been trending Blue. If he wins (which I am inclined to think not at this point) then he does it by a hair.
I have thought this all along, yet there has been very little mention of it. Evangelicals will be voting in force with this amendment on the ballot.
Two words: Pat Toomey
Rick's support base collapsed after that fiasco and has never fully recovered.
Prop 5 - no ??
Lincoln Chafee has pulled even in the polls. It puts RI conservatives in the ironic position of helping reelect someone they're reluctant to have supported in the first place.
If the Pubbies across the river are doing what we are doing here in Maryland Allen will prevail handily. I was so impressed today by the folks around me and those managing GOTV effort for Erlich and Steele. It's an honor and a joy to be part of it.
That may be the only good thing about the cloning ref, but we are optomistic.
That was before they discovered Obama. "The MSM giveth and the MSM taketh away."
I think Allen holds on; with the WAPO ombudsperson today stating that they now admit they have been unfair to Allen, that may (or may not) have an impact. I'm sticking with my original, no change in numbers in the seante...a few face changes, but we will still have a 55-45 majority. I think we keep the house as well, but the margin is only 2 or 3 seats. Punch Foley for Joe is really working in that district and I think pubbies hold there, despite the dem/press attempts to steal it away.
WE, REBPUBLICANS WIN, the dems lose again.
I trust Barron more than anyone else on the planet. Do you have a link or something where I can see his predictions?
I may be in incorrect on this one, but I seem to remember in previous elections when Rep. are down about 2 to 3 pts in congressional pref. polls we actually pick up seats. Pollsters can be wrong for 6 months but when they publish their accuracy of results it's only the final polls that matter.
We hold the Senate by 52-48 but lose the House. Given my druthers I would rather hold the Senate simply due to judicial nominations.
The reason the polls dont make any sense is because they are BULLSCAT!Republicans polled say demorats are better on taxes? Not on this planet.Nice try rats but we aint buying.
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