Posted on 11/05/2006 3:16:09 PM PST by Oakleaf
Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans.
As you know, I like to whack around pollsters like a pinata, but Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.
Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio. (Who was writing last night Ohio had turned into a single-digit race?) (Interestingly, they saw no tightening in Pennsylvania; Santorum went from -12 to -13.) Brown is still the favorite, but DeWine can take some solace in the fact that the numbers are turning his direction in these final days.
The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Chafee had been down pretty big for a while. But as a buddy of mine noted, Chafee's a well-established, well-respected family name; those names don't often get blown out by 10 to 14 points. (I could see the argument that between a liberal Republican and a liberal Democrat, voters will pick the Democrat, but as we saw in the primary, Chafee's got a better connection to this community than we expected.) Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.
In Arizona, M-D has Jon Kyl up 8, suggesting that spending $1 million at the last minute may be a decision that Chuck Schumer comes to regret, particularly if a race like Rhode Island gets fumbled.
M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.
Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.
In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.
Worst sign for Republicans? Another poll showing Virginia nearly tied, M-D showing Webb by 1. It's gonna be a close race, and from my mailbag, the NoVa Democrats are fired up. Allen had better hope his get-out-the-vote effort works a heck of a lot better than the rest of his campaign has worked so far.
"I will hold my nose and vote for the RINO Kean over the despicable rat Menendez."
Thank you. Suffering the RINO Kean is easier than suffering the Democrats running the Senate.
I was just at a Santorum rally. He had with him Elaine Chao , Pat Toomey and of course his wife.
Pat claims that the race is close,maybe even tied.
After the last election's Exit polling results showing Kerry winning which was followed by the Susan Estrich rant fest and Kerry losing, I am still inclined to believe that the polls are missing key factors.
One big factor is the absentee votes. Several elections last time hinged on the absentee votes and if I am not mistaken the margins for the republicans increased in each election where the absentee vote was important.
I do not think that the "professional" pollsters have figured out how to factor in the absentee vote. The SJ Mercury news is reporting 44% of the Calif votes are already absentee. This indicates that the election results might take a few days in several districts.
When we move to more conservative areas of the country and see the large numbers (population wise) of the absentee ballots, I would think that these may be disproportionate for the Reps. Busy people mail the votes in, social workers get time off.
The voter turn-out election day may be largely democrat. The Reps may have already voted in large part.
Another fun time watching the "pros" crash and burn in the Estrich mode.
I wouldn't surprise me if the Dem take control of the Senate that rat in disguise will jump ship.
In my neck of the woods of the North Metro KC area, Talent signs outnumber McCaskill signs by about 50%, but "no on two" (against the stem cell thing) signs are EVERYWHERE. I just don't think the stem cell thing can go fail with McCaskill/Talent being neck and neck.
PA tends to be 3 races: Philly, Pittsburgh & everything else. Philly is blue & Specter wins in PA because he can get enough of the Philly independents. Rural PA is bright red. Pittsburgh is a mix b/c of the union vote. Santorum's recent "middle of the road" behavior & Casey's prolife stance has cooled a lot of the proSantorum fire.
In the end, this race & all the congressional races will come down to one thing - will the determination of the broken-glass Republicans beat the tepid & fleeting general support for Dems.
My gut tells me that across the country, most of those supporting the GOP will wake up Tuesday eager to vote. And those claiming to support Dems will hesitate when they wake up dreaming of Pelosi, Kennedy, Clinton & Kerry running things.
I doubt that dems would get the point of the ad in my part of the state (West)!!!!
I thought the Menendez brothers were still in jail.
That's actually underselling it. M-D is hands-down the best state-level polling organization in the nation. There are some individual states that may have local firms with a better record, but none of the big players (Zogby, Pew, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc) are as reliable as M-D.
Keep voting and working. As I keep saying, red-staters have a duty to elect conservative Republicans, because they can still do so. Blue-staters have a duty to make their local Dem candidates work hard and spend money to make sure they win -- so they can't dump excess cash into red state races.
You know you'll usually lose, but you sure can work at making them miserable in the process.
BTW Duckworth is going to lose Illinois' 6th district...
What are the polls regarding Duckworth? This is Henry Hydes seat right?
.
JOHN KERRY =
Pictures of a vietnamese Re-Education Camp
http://www.Freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1308949/posts
.
Pittsburgh and Philadelphia can always be counted on to have 110% turnout. That's how PA steals elections. Not much different in NJ.
PA elected Arlen Specter. Repeatedly. Liberals hate Santorum with a passion. There have been anti-Santorum signs and fliers here, printed up by some group that did the same type of thing against Bush in 2004. Santorum has national name recognition among libs. I'm not sure if it's his "It Takes a Family" book, or his remarks on gay marriage, or his Catholicism, or his... PA is basically half lib & half conservative. The libs own the two big cities, and Republicans own SOME suburbs (not Philly ones) and rural. Santorum is wonderful IMO, and Casey is a joke. They're not gonna vote FOR Casey though, just against Rick. It all boils down to anti-Values Voters.
It was pathetic how the Dems exploited Tammy Duckworth. She is a "pathos" candidate. Roskam should win...
Specter should have campaigned for Santorum in the Philly burbs, and the big cities. He is an ungrateful boob.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.