Posted on 11/05/2006 3:16:09 PM PST by Oakleaf
Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans.
As you know, I like to whack around pollsters like a pinata, but Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.
Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio. (Who was writing last night Ohio had turned into a single-digit race?) (Interestingly, they saw no tightening in Pennsylvania; Santorum went from -12 to -13.) Brown is still the favorite, but DeWine can take some solace in the fact that the numbers are turning his direction in these final days.
The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Chafee had been down pretty big for a while. But as a buddy of mine noted, Chafee's a well-established, well-respected family name; those names don't often get blown out by 10 to 14 points. (I could see the argument that between a liberal Republican and a liberal Democrat, voters will pick the Democrat, but as we saw in the primary, Chafee's got a better connection to this community than we expected.) Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.
In Arizona, M-D has Jon Kyl up 8, suggesting that spending $1 million at the last minute may be a decision that Chuck Schumer comes to regret, particularly if a race like Rhode Island gets fumbled.
M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.
Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.
In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.
Worst sign for Republicans? Another poll showing Virginia nearly tied, M-D showing Webb by 1. It's gonna be a close race, and from my mailbag, the NoVa Democrats are fired up. Allen had better hope his get-out-the-vote effort works a heck of a lot better than the rest of his campaign has worked so far.
Chafee should lose, he will defect to the Democrats so fast that Mitch McConnell's head will spin if it comes down to it.
So your the one still watching that moron??
Pray for W and The Election
I don't even want to know until Wednesday...in other words, I'm afraid to look for fear of jinxing it. ;)
..no way, no how...
GOP Prayer bump!!!
so you would rather have a 100% certainty of a Dem in that slot?
Against Obama? Maybe.
I will hold my nose and vote for the RINO Kean over the despicable rat Menendez.
I don't get this one either. I know there are some freepers holding Specter against him, but Casey is so freakin' stupid, I can't imagine anybody with any brains voting for him.
Yeah it sux and so did the Bears but at least Daley is not a moonbat...he's friends with W and has a son in the Army and runs a heck of a city....but I'll vote Repub cuz ...thats me.
I've noticed something very strange about the "Republican" respondents in these polls. When asked who they trust more on taxes, the respondents say "democrats."
That doesn't make sense. If they were Republicans, they wouldn't want higher taxes.
It's good.....really good.
And in prime time, also.
Whoopie!
Leni
We were in 50/50 position before, and Chafee did not switch party. Some people said that's because Jefford did it first. I don't buy it. Chafee could have been better off siding with the Dims majority if he wanted to do so. Yet, he did not. So, yes, he is a liberal, and I hate him for some of his votes. Yet, he consistently voted for the Republican leaderships. Unless we prefer to have Senate Judiciary Chairman Pat Leahy, I'd say vote for Chafee.
Mason dixon's Polls are very accurate.
Look to check their finals tomorrow
Well, Pa is pretty blue at this point. And large parts of Pa look at the Caseys the same way that Mass. looks at the Kennedys. Don't ask me to explain it, because I don't get it.
And not surprising, Arlen Specter has been the invisible man in this campaign. For some reason, Santorum campaigned his ass off for Specter last time, but Specter is nowhere to be found now. The guy is a total jerk.
Same here as I vote for Snowe.
The gay issue is on the ballot there. Democrats are the gay marriage party. I think the issue will save Allen.
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