Posted on 10/29/2006 10:55:26 AM PST by charlie5
Well with one week away from the 2006 elections, I would like to share with you my prediction for control of the US Senate.
You are not the Amazing Kreskin. McCaskill goes down in Mizzou as does Tester in Montana. Lieberman will ALWAYS vote with the dems. You don;t need to be the Amazing Kreskin to predict that!
If everyone else votes either Democrat or Republican, it won't matter whether Lieberman votes Democrat or abstains. If the vote for everyone else is 50R-49D, the Republicans will win regardless of what Lieberman does; if it's 49R-50D, the R's will lose unless Lieberman votes for them. Consequently, I wouldn't be too surprised if Lieberman votes for neither party.
What if the reps and Lieberman win?
Willhe caucus with the reps to get a chairmanship?
The only change in Senate was Wellstone(D-MN). It was the election on the eve of the Gulf War I.
Your predictions are sound except for the farfetched notion that Lieberman will become a Republican. He's using the gullible conservatives in Connecticut to vote the same party line hes voted for the past decade.
Bingo. Loserman will give a speech complaining Harry Reid is too partisan and needs to work with the President, then Loserman will "reluntantly" cast the tie-breaking vote to deliver the Senate to the Dems.
Dems will then act like they did when Dachle took power and treat the GOP "minority party" like sub-humans.
The Loserman supporters on FR will pop the champaign and tell us how much better it is that Conn.'s senator is "only" 90% liberal instead of 95% liberal, so it's a "symbolic victory" over Daily Kos.
The only way we'd end up with a 49-50-1 makeup is if Lamont somehow has a last minute surge in CT or hell freezes over and Sanders loses in VT.
Otherwise there will be two "independants" when the Senate conviences in 2007 (Lieberman, I-CT; Sanders I-VT), both of whom support the liberal position 90% of the time and have pledged to support Reid for majority leader.
In a 49-49-2 scenario, Lieberman casts the deciding vote to hand the Senate to Reid.
He could just as well abstain with the exact same effect.
Corker will win by 5+. Does anyone out there recall Jr. being invloved in a physical altercation over yard signs, or something involving a campaign of one of his relatives? I think it happened in '99 or '01.
What do you make of these predictions?
Thanks for another point of view. I don't think that Ford will win either.
I think we will keep the House too. Remember the article from Barron's magazine that the GOP would keep both houses? Follow the money, honey.
No way we're gonna lose TN and MO; No way!!!
Any freeper who buys the "Lieberman is worth voting for because a 90% liberal candidate is better than a 95% liberal candidate" arguement might as well vote for likes of Hillary over the Green party candidate in states where Republicans "can't win". Same logic.
DemocRATs in "safe" GOP states would never abandon their own "unelectable" candidate and vote for a 90% conservative candidate who disagrees with conservative activists on one issue (example: Chris Cannon) just to send a "symbolic" message in support of amnesty for illegals or other such nonscene. They know a vote for Cannon would simply help Hastert keep the House.
Loserman tried to hijack the 2000 election and I, for one, will never forgive him. Vote Schlessinger.
Kean will lose.
Burns keeps his seat
Corker wins Tennessee
Allen squeaks by in Virginia
Talent keeps Missouri
Hope you're right about all these! If Steele can just get his numbers up a bit among African-American voters--it was 33 percent in late September, down to 25 percent the last I saw--he could pull this one off. He is clearly much more articulate than Cardin.
The momentum seems to be with Burns in Montana. He has about pulled even in the polls. Although Montanans are not entirely averse to sending Democrats to the Senate (witness Burns' colleague, Max Baucus), this is essentially a conservative/libertarian state. It is just hard for me to believe that it will send a liberal such as Tester to the US Senate. (He is currently in the Montana senate--but that is a different story.)
Likewise, the momentum is with Corker in Tennessee. True, Corker is about as exciting as a game of shuffleboard; but Ford is not likely to do well outside of his base of Memphis. And Tennessee is a very red state. So I, too, give Corker the edge here.
Allen's lead in Virginia has recently been diminished, down to just a point or two in the polls. And Northern Virginia--especially the Washington suburbs--can be expected to go heavily for Webb. Still, I like Allen in this one. The "macaca" incident is ancient history now; whereas Webb's pornographic writings, although old, are fresh in people's minds, having just been displayed on Drudge and elsewhere.
Missouri worries me. It is partly the Kansas City and St. Louis suburbs that concern me--will married women (usually GOP leaners) vote disproportionately for McCaskill there, due in part to the Michael J. Fox ad?--but even more worrisome is the specter of voter fraud. The far-left group, ACORN, has recently been found to be attempting to rig the vote. To what extent this fraudulent project has been subdued, I don't know. (Perhaps a Show Me Stater--or anyone else knowledgeable about the matter--could shed a little more light on this for me.)
And don't forget New Jersey. I'm not quite as hopeful as I would like to be here--New Jersey is a rather blue state; it seems to have a high tolerance for corruption (one of Kean's chief issues); and Democrats tend to do a few points better in New Jersey than the polls usually indicate. Even so, this one is in still in play. And a Republican upset in the Garden State would greatly complicate the Democrats (already slim) hopes of recapturing the Senate.
Remember my thread on Election Day.Bookmarking it now...
DU troll, likely stoned.
Agreed, makes nice drama, but it won't go down like that at all. That's WAY too overzealous to the D's.
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