RealClearPolitics Posts Polling Data on Current Rep. House Seats -- 8 "Lean Dem," 16 "Toss Up"

RealClearPolitics.com ^ | October 28, 2006 | RCP Polling Links

[StJacques]

Battle For the House of Representatives

Republican Seats

Lean Dem (8)

Toss Up (16)

Lean GOP (21)

Note: According to RealClearPolitics.com, no Democrat seats are in play.

[StJacques]

If you follow the polling links you will see that according to most recent polling data the Democrats are in good shape to pick up between 16 - 18 seats, depending upon how NC-11, CT-4, and PA-6 go.

[BonnieJ]

How convenient...the exact # they need to take control of the House. The numbers are as always suspect, but we all need to be sure to vote...Even long-time solid Reps like ours in AZ, J.D. Hayworth, seem to be in a bit of trouble this time, if you can believe ANY of the stories and polls.

[Alter Kaker]

RCP is definitely NOT a lib-leaning site -- I think a Dem win in the House is looking increasingly likely.

[italianquaker]

nahh if it close in polling add 5 pts to gop

[Dems_R_Losers]

That's a good list. If you assume the GOP loses all 8 of the "leans D" seats, and the GOP does not pick up any Dem seats, then Dems have to win 7 of the 16 "tossup" races. I think this is possible but pretty difficult if you look at those races. I think Republicans will also pick up at least one of those seats in Georgia. I am looking for a 12-seat net loss by the Republicans, with the GOP retaining control of the House by a hair.

[Names Ash Housewares]

I would not say "likely".
I would say it is possible if we do not fight hard enough.

[saganite]

Taylor in NC-11 is my representative. He has a fund raising lead over Schuler and we're getting quite a lot of national ads here. I'm optimistic. Besides, my wife and I already voted so he's got at least 2 votes! ;^)

[100-Fold_Return]

Yeah, but what makes this blog any different from MoveOn.org or Salon.com, as the NY Slimes is paying their bills?????

[Intolerant in NJ]

Note: According to RealClearPolitics.com, no Democrat seats are in play...I don't believe it......

[JLGALT]

"RCP is definitely NOT a lib-leaning site"

As far as I know you are correct. But the some of polls they quote are! You need to know the makeup of the people polled!

[StJacques]

RealClearPolitics.com is NOT a lib-leaning site. They were very accurate on their state-by-state election forecast for the presidential election in 2004 and they were the only site I saw that projected the surprising Republican showing in the 2002 mid-term elections. I also remember that in 2002 they predicted that Zogby was going to be really embarrassed the day after the election, which of course turned out to be true. He was still apologizing a month later.

[OpusatFR]

We just got a call Webb or Allen?

Allen, of course.

I don't care that Webb is a novelist. There is just so much more baggage he has that is damning.

[YdontUleaveLibs]

GOP is gaining in the polls if the media was even close to being even handed, ie the Webb scandal GOP would be far ahead in the polls.

[StJacques]

By the way everyone, according to RealClearPolitics the Democrats are NOT in good shape to pick up the Senate, just in case any of you are still wondering if they're shivving for the libs.

[Gordongekko909]

But the some of polls they quote are!

A-yup. Garbage in, garbage out, bra.

[ReaganRevolution]

Actually RCP has a deal with Time magazine this election year. Take it for it what you will. I have a hard time believing that not one dem seat is in play.

[jmaroneps37]

Relax. Take a deep breath and think. Real Clear is just averaging Democrat leaning polls. Real Clear does not do it's own polling. The polls are always a lagging indicator.

The tip off is that they don't have Indiana 7 on the radar. Eric Dickerson is going to win that race. He is up 3 45 /42 with 13 "undecideds" they are not undecided. They are just not ready to tell a pollster they won't be voting Democrat this year. Eric's race is a microcosm of the Black vote around the country. You think that if 33% of Blacks in Maryland are SAYING they will vote for Steele, there aren't more, maybe up to 38% who will and some who will be so flushed they won't vote for anybody. We benefit from that.

[MaineVoter2002]

Moveon and salon and the nyt start their conspiracy theories and propaganda at moveon, salon and the NYT then they take their conspiracy theories and propaganda to the next level (USENET,AOL, Yahoo chats and yahoo and Google discussion boards where they popup on any search engine for years, from there the MSM grabs it and it ends up on TV within days to weeks.

GOP Material stays where it starts many times.

While Republicans tend to sing to the choir, liberals post their material in places where it's read by independents, undecided voters and the MSM including Fox.

I was reading a post from a Freeper in alt.politics. The place is HUMMING right now.

[Republican Wildcat]

They've still got KY-3 listed as Leans R...but the polling shows the race exactly tied. I'm very worried about Northup. She's always had a tough race but her comments in recent days indicate she's in more trouble than usual.

Thankfully KY-4 does appear to be moving back in Geoff Davis' direction.

[alloysteel]

And here is where I have a bit of a problem - NO Dem'crat seats are in play?

What secret operative do they have working the sort of patented magic that Karl Rove is rumored to exercise with such finesse?

I just cannot imagine that Dem'crats have 100% assured safe seats. Some Dem'crat congresscritter has done something so stupid, so egregious, that the constituents of that district are in total revulsion, and will march to the polls and toss the miserable twerp out bodily.

Not counting on it, understand. But of some 202 Dem'crats, not finding at least 10% of them being REALLY out of touch has to be a much more serious situation than previously considered.