And here is where I have a bit of a problem - NO Dem'crat seats are in play?
What secret operative do they have working the sort of patented magic that Karl Rove is rumored to exercise with such finesse?
I just cannot imagine that Dem'crats have 100% assured safe seats. Some Dem'crat congresscritter has done something so stupid, so egregious, that the constituents of that district are in total revulsion, and will march to the polls and toss the miserable twerp out bodily.
Not counting on it, understand. But of some 202 Dem'crats, not finding at least 10% of them being REALLY out of touch has to be a much more serious situation than previously considered.
In every other election since 1791 (the first reelection opportunity) the "losing" party still managed to pick up at least one seat from the "winning" party. And that is a powerful fact which kicks in the 2 for 1 math. If the Dems lose one of their seats to the Reps, they have to win two additional Rep seats to make up for it. One is to cover the loss, the other is to make progress.
So, just one take-away from the Dems mean they have to gain 17 Rep seats to make their goal. This rule is clearest in the Senate. Just one Rep win in a Dem state like NJ or Md. and the game is over for any pretense of Dem's taking control of the Senate.
My prediction that the Reps will keep control of both Houses is based on the historically-backed assumption that the Reps will take at least one Dem seat in each House. And the math is, it's then all over except for the shouting.
Congressman Billybob
Latest article: "Recess at Salisbury State"
Please see my most recent statement on running for Congress, here.
That's not inconceivable. Can you name five dem-held House seats that the GOP has a serious chance of picking up? I can't.