RCP is definitely NOT a lib-leaning site -- I think a Dem win in the House is looking increasingly likely.
nahh if it close in polling add 5 pts to gop
I would not say "likely".
I would say it is possible if we do not fight hard enough.
Actually RCP has a deal with Time magazine this election year. Take it for it what you will. I have a hard time believing that not one dem seat is in play.
"RCP is definitely NOT a lib-leaning site -- I think a Dem win in the House is looking increasingly likely."
Correct, its looking ugly, but at pickup of 15 the trend is (slightly) better than before ... If the election were held 2 weeks ago the Dems would have picked up 25-30.
A pick up of 12 would be considered a non-wipeout for GOP.
Another 10 days of positive trends and we could manage to hold on to most 'tossups'.
We don't just observe history - WE MAKE IT. By writing letters of support to editors in newpapers, by voting yourselves and getting others to vote for Republicans, you can stave off the Democrat tide.
In short, if you dont want a Democrat Congress,
PLEASE HELP WITH GOTV.
1) RCP joined with an MSM organization recently. Now that doesn't necessarily mean they sold out, but when you join with the MSM in any business endeavor I'm going to look at you sceptically.
2) These assessments are based on all the media's polling. It's up to you how reliable you believe that polling to be.
3) If we take this at face value, then Reps retain the House. If 16 are toss up then most will by default fall according to the district's partian leanings. Not all, but the majority. In this instance those districts are Rep.
4) This doesn't include Dem seats in play, and there are a few.
RCP has FL16 (Foley/Negron) in the lean democrat column. I have been working on this campaign for the last week, and I can tell you that we have a better chance in this district than we do in FL13 (Harris/Buchanan). FL13 experienced a grueling, bitter primary, a primary that has negatively impacted the GOP base in the district. President Bush stumped for Vern last Wednesday in Sarasota because Vern's numbers are sagging. If I had to guess, I would say that State Representative Joe Negron (FL16) has a better chance at victory. I was at the Palm Beach County Supervisors Office (had to go through security as if I were going on an international flight, complete with magnetron) on the first day of early voting, and the large precinct was overflowing with voters, hispanic (Cuban) voters. Negron's voters had turned out in droves.
It's not left leaning but they do offer every poll (whether it's AP, Rasmussen or whoever) so they just average out all the polls.