That's a good list. If you assume the GOP loses all 8 of the "leans D" seats, and the GOP does not pick up any Dem seats, then Dems have to win 7 of the 16 "tossup" races. I think this is possible but pretty difficult if you look at those races. I think Republicans will also pick up at least one of those seats in Georgia. I am looking for a 12-seat net loss by the Republicans, with the GOP retaining control of the House by a hair.
Isn't there another seat in Illinois that we might pick up? I read Novak's column this morning where he reports Charlie Rangel held a last minute fundraiser for the dem candidate in Mark Foley's district. I think Joe Negron and the Florida Repub Party are doing an excellent job getting the word out that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron. Look for us to keep this seat. Also, Sherry Sekula-Gibbs is in excellent shape to hold Tom Delay's seat in Texas. If we can hold these two seats, plus pick up a seat in GA, I think it will be very difficult for the dems to take the House. In the end I agree with you, the Repubs will lose between 12-14 seats and retain the majority by the thinnest of margins.