[StJacques]

If you follow the polling links you will see that according to most recent polling data the Democrats are in good shape to pick up between 16 - 18 seats, depending upon how NC-11, CT-4, and PA-6 go.

[BonnieJ]

How convenient...the exact # they need to take control of the House. The numbers are as always suspect, but we all need to be sure to vote...Even long-time solid Reps like ours in AZ, J.D. Hayworth, seem to be in a bit of trouble this time, if you can believe ANY of the stories and polls.

[Dems_R_Losers]

That's a good list. If you assume the GOP loses all 8 of the "leans D" seats, and the GOP does not pick up any Dem seats, then Dems have to win 7 of the 16 "tossup" races. I think this is possible but pretty difficult if you look at those races. I think Republicans will also pick up at least one of those seats in Georgia. I am looking for a 12-seat net loss by the Republicans, with the GOP retaining control of the House by a hair.

[saganite]

Taylor in NC-11 is my representative. He has a fund raising lead over Schuler and we're getting quite a lot of national ads here. I'm optimistic. Besides, my wife and I already voted so he's got at least 2 votes! ;^)

[100-Fold_Return]

Yeah, but what makes this blog any different from MoveOn.org or Salon.com, as the NY Slimes is paying their bills?????

[Intolerant in NJ]

Note: According to RealClearPolitics.com, no Democrat seats are in play...I don't believe it......

[OpusatFR]

We just got a call Webb or Allen?

Allen, of course.

I don't care that Webb is a novelist. There is just so much more baggage he has that is damning.

[jmaroneps37]

Relax. Take a deep breath and think. Real Clear is just averaging Democrat leaning polls. Real Clear does not do it's own polling. The polls are always a lagging indicator.

The tip off is that they don't have Indiana 7 on the radar. Eric Dickerson is going to win that race. He is up 3 45 /42 with 13 "undecideds" they are not undecided. They are just not ready to tell a pollster they won't be voting Democrat this year. Eric's race is a microcosm of the Black vote around the country. You think that if 33% of Blacks in Maryland are SAYING they will vote for Steele, there aren't more, maybe up to 38% who will and some who will be so flushed they won't vote for anybody. We benefit from that.

[Republican Wildcat]

They've still got KY-3 listed as Leans R...but the polling shows the race exactly tied. I'm very worried about Northup. She's always had a tough race but her comments in recent days indicate she's in more trouble than usual.

Thankfully KY-4 does appear to be moving back in Geoff Davis' direction.

[alloysteel]

And here is where I have a bit of a problem - NO Dem'crat seats are in play?

What secret operative do they have working the sort of patented magic that Karl Rove is rumored to exercise with such finesse?

I just cannot imagine that Dem'crats have 100% assured safe seats. Some Dem'crat congresscritter has done something so stupid, so egregious, that the constituents of that district are in total revulsion, and will march to the polls and toss the miserable twerp out bodily.

Not counting on it, understand. But of some 202 Dem'crats, not finding at least 10% of them being REALLY out of touch has to be a much more serious situation than previously considered.

[Babu]

I read the data at RCP.com, but I take it all with a very large grain of salt. I'll tell you what I believe I trust more, is Rove's internal polls, and Rove's internal polls are telling him that we will hold both houses of Congress.

Rove has stated several times publicly, the most recent was just a few days ago, that WE WILL RETAIN BOTH HOUSES. Rove said he sees 68 polls a week, that are NOT biased, and that none of us, or the Left, or the Antique Media get to see. Rove certainly cares about his reputation, and he would not state so confidently that we will win, if "the polls" (what he insisted on called them in an interview with Siegel a few days ago, not "my polls") were not giving him that confidence.

Be of good cheer. We will all be smiling on Nov 8!

[Political Junkie Too]

I ran 100,000 simulated elections using these predictions and my scale.

For reference, here's my scale:

Safe Democrat = 0% (50% from Toss Up)
Strong Democrat = 25% (25% from Toss Up)
Lean Democrat = 37.5% (12.5% from Toss Up)
Tilt Democrat = 43.75% (6.25% from Toss Up)
Toss Up = 50%
Tilt Republican = 56.25 (6.25% from Toss Up)
Lean Republican = 62.5% (12.5% from Toss Up)
Strong Republican = 75% (25% from Toss Up)
Safe Republican = 100% (50% from Toss Up)

I'm showing an expected value of 212.87 Republican seats, a net loss of 19.13 seats. The probability of keeping 218 seats (majority) is 7.829%.

Question: Real Clear Politics says "Current House (232 R, 202 D, 1 I): Democrats Need to Pick Up 15 Seats For Control." I'm assuming that the Independent is caususing with the Democrats so that they get 218? Is that Sanders? Isn't he running for Senate? Does this mean that Democrats need to pick up 16 seats for control, or is this just semantics?

-PJ

[MattinNJ]

Things look good.

[CTGOPPER]

Rob Simmons is listed as a toss-up. He was listed as a toss-up 2 years ago and won handily. His work in saving the Submarine Base from the Brac list will make all the difference.

[comebacknewt]

I say we lose 14 seats and retain control of the House by one seat barring any defections.

[Recovering_Democrat]

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[Welike ike]

ST. J thanks for the post, but you must realize that everything thing RCP is based on Polling only. And most of their substance comes form Newsweek, PEW polls etc.. mate.

They were only good in 2004 because the polling was more accurate do to an Presidential election year were More people where answering their phones and turnout was high. This will be a low turnout election which will benefit GOTV.

Melissa Bean is in big trouble in the IL 8th along with Barrow in GA, they will both lose.

[Welike ike]

Jaques, thy key word is CURRENT my friend. Since when do we vote on the last Saturday of October?

Good post though bud.

[shield]

bttt

[shield]

ping

[tobyhill]

Rats gain 8 House seats tops and 2 in the Senate. When people start really thinking about how to run the country most they don't want the San Fransisco/Massachusetts type politicians spreading their socialist, pro-abortion, gay agenda.