RealClearPolitics Posts Polling Data on Current Rep. House Seats -- 8 "Lean Dem," 16 "Toss Up"

RealClearPolitics.com ^ | October 28, 2006 | RCP Polling Links

[StJacques]

Battle For the House of Representatives

Republican Seats

Lean Dem (8)

Toss Up (16)

Lean GOP (21)

Note: According to RealClearPolitics.com, no Democrat seats are in play.

[moose2004]

Isn't there another seat in Illinois that we might pick up? I read Novak's column this morning where he reports Charlie Rangel held a last minute fundraiser for the dem candidate in Mark Foley's district. I think Joe Negron and the Florida Repub Party are doing an excellent job getting the word out that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron. Look for us to keep this seat. Also, Sherry Sekula-Gibbs is in excellent shape to hold Tom Delay's seat in Texas. If we can hold these two seats, plus pick up a seat in GA, I think it will be very difficult for the dems to take the House. In the end I agree with you, the Repubs will lose between 12-14 seats and retain the majority by the thinnest of margins.

[Babu]

I read the data at RCP.com, but I take it all with a very large grain of salt. I'll tell you what I believe I trust more, is Rove's internal polls, and Rove's internal polls are telling him that we will hold both houses of Congress.

Rove has stated several times publicly, the most recent was just a few days ago, that WE WILL RETAIN BOTH HOUSES. Rove said he sees 68 polls a week, that are NOT biased, and that none of us, or the Left, or the Antique Media get to see. Rove certainly cares about his reputation, and he would not state so confidently that we will win, if "the polls" (what he insisted on called them in an interview with Siegel a few days ago, not "my polls") were not giving him that confidence.

Be of good cheer. We will all be smiling on Nov 8!

[Political Junkie Too]

I ran 100,000 simulated elections using these predictions and my scale.

For reference, here's my scale:

Safe Democrat = 0% (50% from Toss Up)
Strong Democrat = 25% (25% from Toss Up)
Lean Democrat = 37.5% (12.5% from Toss Up)
Tilt Democrat = 43.75% (6.25% from Toss Up)
Toss Up = 50%
Tilt Republican = 56.25 (6.25% from Toss Up)
Lean Republican = 62.5% (12.5% from Toss Up)
Strong Republican = 75% (25% from Toss Up)
Safe Republican = 100% (50% from Toss Up)

I'm showing an expected value of 212.87 Republican seats, a net loss of 19.13 seats. The probability of keeping 218 seats (majority) is 7.829%.

Question: Real Clear Politics says "Current House (232 R, 202 D, 1 I): Democrats Need to Pick Up 15 Seats For Control." I'm assuming that the Independent is caususing with the Democrats so that they get 218? Is that Sanders? Isn't he running for Senate? Does this mean that Democrats need to pick up 16 seats for control, or is this just semantics?

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

GOP Material stays where it starts many times.

Google has been slowly removing conservative sites from their news search engine, claiming that the articles on controversial topics contain hate speech. That's why liberal topics proliferate while conservative discussions go nowhere.

You can search FR for "Google" to find the stories.

-PJ

[pollyannaish]

That is definitely true. HOWEVER, they do average run-of-the-mill polls that tend to oversample dems.

Most of the experts say that in toss up categories the GOP will most likely be wins for us. The lean dems are most likely the only true toss-ups.

[WOSG]

"RCP is definitely NOT a lib-leaning site -- I think a Dem win in the House is looking increasingly likely."

Correct, its looking ugly, but at pickup of 15 the trend is (slightly) better than before ... If the election were held 2 weeks ago the Dems would have picked up 25-30.

A pick up of 12 would be considered a non-wipeout for GOP.
Another 10 days of positive trends and we could manage to hold on to most 'tossups'.

We don't just observe history - WE MAKE IT. By writing letters of support to editors in newpapers, by voting yourselves and getting others to vote for Republicans, you can stave off the Democrat tide.

In short, if you dont want a Democrat Congress,
PLEASE HELP WITH GOTV.

[Soul Seeker]

1) RCP joined with an MSM organization recently. Now that doesn't necessarily mean they sold out, but when you join with the MSM in any business endeavor I'm going to look at you sceptically.

2) These assessments are based on all the media's polling. It's up to you how reliable you believe that polling to be.

3) If we take this at face value, then Reps retain the House. If 16 are toss up then most will by default fall according to the district's partian leanings. Not all, but the majority. In this instance those districts are Rep.

4) This doesn't include Dem seats in play, and there are a few.

[WOSG]

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.politics/browse_thread/thread/e485279bf56f7438/58ec15a60b76986e?lnk=raot&hl=en#58ec15a60b76986e

humming???

A lot of liberal trolls bashing everything conservative and republican with juvenile potty-mouthed attacks ... blech.

"Moveon and salon and the nyt start their conspiracy theories and propaganda at moveon, salon and the NYT then they take their conspiracy theories and propaganda to the next level (USENET,AOL, Yahoo chats and yahoo and Google discussion boards where they popup on any search engine for years, from there the MSM grabs it and it ends up on TV within days to weeks."

The left has perfected the art of internet-based propaganda. They are way ahead in spreading their nonsensical messages.

[WOSG]

Rove may be just putting a brave face on things.
NRCC actions speak louder, they are giving up on some former GOP seats and are not strongly contesting any Dem ones.

GOP is on defense and we will be lucky to escape with a net loss under 10. More like 12-18.

Some polls can lie but we are just stupid if we dont see this election cycle as a very tough one for Republicans.

[MattinNJ]

Things look good.

[WOSG]

"Google has been slowly removing conservative sites from their news search engine, claiming that the articles on controversial topics contain hate speech. That's why liberal topics proliferate while conservative discussions go nowhere."

This is true and very troubling.

[Blackirish]

RCP was started by a couple of libertarian /conservative guys on the Northside of Chicago....it's been a great tool for almost everyone to get free polling averages.

They however were making peanuts so when TIME offered them some real money .......

[MaineVoter2002]

That's my point

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.politics?lnk=lr&hl=en

[CTGOPPER]

Rob Simmons is listed as a toss-up. He was listed as a toss-up 2 years ago and won handily. His work in saving the Submarine Base from the Brac list will make all the difference.

[Steven W.]

If you live in one of the competitive districts you can do more than just voting - help GOTV! Every vote counts and remember - Halloween is just around the corner and the DemoncRATs will be trolling all the graveyards this next week and rolling in the dead voter tallies they think will pull them to victory.

[MaineVoter2002]

Google has been slowly removing conservative sites from their news search engine, claiming that the articles on controversial topics contain hate speech

THIS ONE GOES ALL THE WAY BACK TO DASCHLE

[paul544]

We're gunna get creamed and bad... If we're reduced to smearing a good site because we don't like what they say, we're pretty pathetic.

When the party's leader is as disliked as Bush is, they are inherently handicapped. Remember 1994 anyone?

Soon will be time for us to take where the sun don't shine. And we will have to thank Bush for it all.

[comebacknewt]

I say we lose 14 seats and retain control of the House by one seat barring any defections.

[Starboard]

Another 10 days of positive trends and we could manage to hold on to most 'tossups'.

I really hope Republicans have kept their powder dry and are now prepared to dump an avalance of money into the campaigns. We need the blitz.

[comebacknewt]

I obviously want us to win, but if it is going to be one or two seats either way, we may be better off from a strategic standpoint having the RATs control the House for two years.

If they do, they won't be able to hide their true colors and then the American people can see how despicable they truly are and can vote them out en masse during Giuliani's landslide victory in 2008.