Posted on 10/28/2006 12:50:44 PM PDT by StJacques
How convenient...the exact # they need to take control of the House. The numbers are as always suspect, but we all need to be sure to vote...Even long-time solid Reps like ours in AZ, J.D. Hayworth, seem to be in a bit of trouble this time, if you can believe ANY of the stories and polls.
RCP is definitely NOT a lib-leaning site -- I think a Dem win in the House is looking increasingly likely.
nahh if it close in polling add 5 pts to gop
That's a good list. If you assume the GOP loses all 8 of the "leans D" seats, and the GOP does not pick up any Dem seats, then Dems have to win 7 of the 16 "tossup" races. I think this is possible but pretty difficult if you look at those races. I think Republicans will also pick up at least one of those seats in Georgia. I am looking for a 12-seat net loss by the Republicans, with the GOP retaining control of the House by a hair.
I would not say "likely".
I would say it is possible if we do not fight hard enough.
Taylor in NC-11 is my representative. He has a fund raising lead over Schuler and we're getting quite a lot of national ads here. I'm optimistic. Besides, my wife and I already voted so he's got at least 2 votes! ;^)
Yeah, but what makes this blog any different from MoveOn.org or Salon.com, as the NY Slimes is paying their bills?????
RealClearPolitics.com is NOT a lib-leaning site. They were very accurate on their state-by-state election forecast for the presidential election in 2004 and they were the only site I saw that projected the surprising Republican showing in the 2002 mid-term elections. I also remember that in 2002 they predicted that Zogby was going to be really embarrassed the day after the election, which of course turned out to be true. He was still apologizing a month later.
We just got a call Webb or Allen?
Allen, of course.
I don't care that Webb is a novelist. There is just so much more baggage he has that is damning.
GOP is gaining in the polls if the media was even close to being even handed, ie the Webb scandal GOP would be far ahead in the polls.
By the way everyone, according to RealClearPolitics the Democrats are NOT in good shape to pick up the Senate, just in case any of you are still wondering if they're shivving for the libs.
A-yup. Garbage in, garbage out, bra.
Actually RCP has a deal with Time magazine this election year. Take it for it what you will. I have a hard time believing that not one dem seat is in play.
GOP Material stays where it starts many times.
While Republicans tend to sing to the choir, liberals post their material in places where it's read by independents, undecided voters and the MSM including Fox.
I was reading a post from a Freeper in alt.politics. The place is HUMMING right now.
They've still got KY-3 listed as Leans R...but the polling shows the race exactly tied. I'm very worried about Northup. She's always had a tough race but her comments in recent days indicate she's in more trouble than usual.
Thankfully KY-4 does appear to be moving back in Geoff Davis' direction.
And here is where I have a bit of a problem - NO Dem'crat seats are in play?
What secret operative do they have working the sort of patented magic that Karl Rove is rumored to exercise with such finesse?
I just cannot imagine that Dem'crats have 100% assured safe seats. Some Dem'crat congresscritter has done something so stupid, so egregious, that the constituents of that district are in total revulsion, and will march to the polls and toss the miserable twerp out bodily.
Not counting on it, understand. But of some 202 Dem'crats, not finding at least 10% of them being REALLY out of touch has to be a much more serious situation than previously considered.
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