Posted on 10/24/2006 7:14:40 AM PDT by GOPcomeback
TN Corker 45 Ford 43 MT Tester 46 Burns 43 MO McCaskill 46 Talent 43 VA Allen 47 Webb 43 NJ Menendez 45 Kean 42 OH Brown 48 DeWine 40
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Democrats always win big in September. Pubbies wisely keep their powder dry until right about NOW!
It is getting dirty in MO. Michael J. Fox's whining ad will help. There's also an ad featuring injured war veteran's complaining about Talent.
It's not about polls. It's about turnout.
Turnout, EXACTLY RIGHT!!! Polls mean nothing if Likely or Registered Voters do not vote. That's why it is VERY IMPORTANT that the pubbies GOTV come November 7th!!!
Hopefully, it will rain/snow which will suppress the Dims in the urban areas. One can only hope!!!
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) leads Lincoln Chafee (R), 48% to 43%
Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) leads Jim Talent (R), 46% to 43% STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT
New Jersey: Bob Menendez (D) leads Thomas Kean Jr (R), 45% to 42% STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT
Washington: Maria Cantwell (D) leads Mike McGavick (R), 52% to 37%
Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) leads Mike DeWine (R), 48% to 40%
Montana: Jon Tester (D) leads Conrad Burns (R), 46% to 43% STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT
Tennessee: Bob Corker (R) leads Harold Ford (D), 45% to 43% STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT
Virginia: George Allen (R) leads James Webb (D), 47% to 43%
The internals of the Ohio poll are here:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389844/
That seems like a kind of unrealistic number for Blackwell to me.
Aren't these all "registered voter" samples? I'm pretty sure the PA poll is.
I am highly suspicious of all polls at this point for several reasons:
Poller bias
Respondant falsification of preference
Biased samples (e.g., don't most educated people have call screening now? Do you still answer when the little window says, "Unknown Caller"?)
I hope my suspicions turn out to be true. I do remember the 80s governors race in Michigan where the Dem. Blanchard had some huge lead going into the election. He was beaten by the Rep. Engler in a landslide.
The funny thing is that in 2000, this is the point in time where the previously-considered-safe Burns started to seriously lose his lead to Schweitzer. If Election Day had been a week later, he might have lost.
Nelson is so bland and non-descript tha thtere is neither dirt on him nor is their any reason to vote for him. He's riding his encumbancy to victory because no one has a strong reason not to vote for him in FL. Odd thing is that Crist will win the governor's race. That means there will be a lot of people voting (R) for governor, but (D) for U.S. Senator. A lot of people will not be voting straight one party.
Fox is doing the same ad for Cardin in Maryland.
No. They are all Likely Voter polls.
Are there any reg. voter polls out there that are recent?
WASHINGTON — Republican Senate candidates have fought back to regain an edge in two key races, pivotal battlegrounds that could determine which party controls the Senate, according to a series of new McClatchy-MSNBC polls.
Republicans hold narrow leads in Tennessee and Virginia, two must-win states where the party hopes to build a Southern bulwark against a Democratic tide that's threatening their Senate seats elsewhere across the country.
The new polls show Democrats leading in two states they must hold - New Jersey and Washington - as well as in five states now held by Republicans: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
Yet even if Democrats take all seven of those, they still need to win either Tennessee or Virginia to take control of the Senate. Democrats must gain six seats overall to take a majority.
http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington//15835439.htm
I guess that depends on what you consider recent. These were the dates of the last RV poll in each contest above.
PA: Sept 13-18
RI: August 16-21
MO: N/A
NJ: Sept 28
WA: August 28-29
OH: Sept 9-22
MT: December 13-15, 2005
TN: July 5-16
VA: July 25-27
Go Corker GO.
Come on TN.... you can not let Ford win this race!!!
It Mason Dixon, knock 5 off the Dems rating and you are closer to reality.
C'mon, Mason-Dixon is pretty much the gold standard of polling firms. You might not like the results, but they have been pretty accurate and free of bias.
You want biased...then look to NYT/CBS polls on the left and Strategic Vision on the right.
Menendez is going down in NJ, a PAC has launched vicious ads against him, in the NYC and Philly markets.
Menendez will lose in NJ. Count on it.
C'mon yourself, Mason Dixon may have recently gotten religion but traditionally they've drastically overweighted Dems in samplings.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.