Aren't these all "registered voter" samples? I'm pretty sure the PA poll is.
I am highly suspicious of all polls at this point for several reasons:
Poller bias
Respondant falsification of preference
Biased samples (e.g., don't most educated people have call screening now? Do you still answer when the little window says, "Unknown Caller"?)
I hope my suspicions turn out to be true. I do remember the 80s governors race in Michigan where the Dem. Blanchard had some huge lead going into the election. He was beaten by the Rep. Engler in a landslide.
No. They are all Likely Voter polls.
This is the most important factor, in my opinion, in the way the internet is changing the world. For one thing, newspapers are losing (not loosing) subscribers, TV news is losing viewers, and caller ID is causing people to not answer their phones. Times are changing, and the media is still acting like this is 1970.
I know that I haven't been polled ever in the last 15 years, but then I never answer the house phone, and I only have a house phone for emergencies. Everyone I need to talk to calls my cell. Pollsters don't call cell phones that I have ever heard of. I also don't watch TV, and I only read the local liberal rag when there is absolutely nothing else to read. I get all my news at FR first (thank you).
This can only get worse for the pollsters with their mid-20th century methods.