[perfect_rovian_storm]

What do you make of this?

The internals of the Ohio poll are here:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389844/

That seems like a kind of unrealistic number for Blackwell to me.

[LS]

"Registered" voters always say they will vote. Most don't. "Likely" voters is a term used by most pollsters who apply a follow-up questionnaire: 1) did you vote in 2000? For whom? 2) Did you vote in 2002? For whom? etc.

So I think these numbers are typically way off.

[cookcounty]

That Ohio poll shows a softness in the DeWine/Brown race, with DeWine having a "favorable" number that is actually higher than Brown's though apparently trailing in the poll by 8 points. This is an unsettled electorate.