Posted on 09/30/2006 10:13:58 PM PDT by okstate
WASHINGTON — Democrats are slightly ahead of Republican incumbents in three election battleground states that will help determine control of the Senate, a series of polls released Sunday showed.
In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester had the support of 47 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns had the support of 40 percent.
In Ohio, Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown had 45 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine had 43 percent.
In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. had 43 percent, and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, the Republican Senate nominee, had 42 percent.
Democrats probably must win all three races if they’re to take back control of the Senate on Nov. 7. They need to gain six seats overall, and these three are among the six seats held by Republicans that are considered most vulnerable.
Another Republican incumbent, Sen. George Allen of Virginia, was locked in a 43 percent to 43 percent dead heat with Democratic challenger James Webb, according to a poll released Friday by McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC.
The surveys underscored how much these states are up for grabs and how much rides on the final five weeks of campaigning. The work of both major parties to get their supporters to turn out on Election Day could prove decisive. One in 10 voters remain undecided in Montana and Ohio, 12 percent in Virginia and 14 percent in Tennessee.
The polls were all conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for newspapers in each of the states — Lee Newspapers in Montana, the Cleveland Plain Dealer in Ohio and the Memphis Commercial Appeal and Chattanooga Times Free Press in Tennessee. Each state poll was of 625 registered voters and had an error margin of plus or minus four percentage points. The polls were taken between Monday and Thursday.
Mason-Dixon conducted a broader series of polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC in seven other closely fought Senate battleground states. Virginia results were released Friday, and the other six will be released Monday.
Except for the inconvienient little fact that pre-election polls in 2000 were almost all skewed to OUR SIDE. 8 of 11 final Presidential national polls in 2000 favored the Republican more than what the final margin reflected. Those polls were Rasmussen, Gallup, Pew, TIPP, ICR, NBC, ABC, and Battleground (these polls found between a 2 point and 5 point Bush win). CBS and Harris got it close (Gore +1 and PUSH, respectively). Zogby called the correct popular vote outcome, but was off by about 1.5 percent on the margin (he found Gore +2).
As for 1996, you are correct, all polls showed Clinton winning with a greater margin than he actually did, but all but one of those polls were within the stated margin of error (the exception was CBS/NY Times).
Conrad Burns is a goner.
I'm less worried abotu George Allen & Bob Corker. There is an undercurrent of negativity against Ford's family that voters aren't telling pollsters. And as for Allen, this poll was taken before it was learned that Jim Webb had gone into black neighborhoods and pointed fake guns at the residents while he was in the ROTC.
The pre-election polls in 2000 that you refer to may not have reflected the impact of the last minute media bombshell about Bush's 1976 DUI arrest, which was made public on the Thursday before the election. If it had not been for that, Bush probably would have won by several points and had an absolute majority of the popular vote.
You may be right, but we'll never know thanks to the drive-by media.
"...my girl's a corker, she's a New Yorker,
I buy her everything to keep her in style."
Corker won the primary because two other canadidates split the conservative vote (Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary). If either of the other two had bowed out, I don't think Corker would be the candidate now.
I don't think Abraham was down in his last poll before the election, much less down double-digits. He had a big lead over Stabenow until September or October and she only narrowed it to single digits in the last weeks. She benefited from disproportionately high 'RAT turnout in 2000.
Sorry, I didn't see you said last "victory."
And this Foley person is . . .?
I knew what you meant. I also knew, being a rabid Dallas fan, that TO did not attempt suicide. But it's irrelevant as far as the press is concerned.
Thank you
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