Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Survey USA OH-02 Poll: Jean Schmidt (R) up 3 points
Survey USA ^ | 20 September 2006 | Survey USA

Posted on 09/21/2006 10:57:13 AM PDT by okstate

Schmidt (R) 45%
Wulsin (D) 42%
Other 1%
Undecided 12%

Topline numbers based on 497 likely voters called between September 17th and 19th.

Partisan breakdown:
Republican 49%
Democrat 31%
Independent 18%

In an election for US House of Representatives in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District today, 9/20/06, Republican Congresswoman Jean Schmidt leads Democrat Victoria Wulsin by 3 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati. 7 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Schmidt gets 45%. Wulsin gets 42%. The 3-point edge is within the poll's 4.5% margin of sampling error, and is not statistically significant. Republicans support Schmidt 6:1. Democrats support Wulsin 14:1. Independents break 5:4 for Wulsin. Republicans have a 3:2 advantage among 2nd CD likely voters. Wulsin leads among lower-income voters. Schmidt leads among middle-income voters. The two tie among upper-income voters. Schmidt is up slightly among men. Wulsin is up slightly among women. Though Wulsin leads 5:3 among Moderates, that is not enough to overcome the 9:2 lead Schmidt has among Conservatives. Of those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance, 79% support Schmidt. Of those who disapprove of Bush's performance, 80% support Wulsin. President Bush's approval rating among likely voters in Ohio's 2nd CD is 50%. Schmidt was first elected to Congress in a special election in 2005.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2006polls; electioncongress; electionscongress; ohio; poll; polls; schmidt; surveyusa; wulsin
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061 next last
To: TNCMAXQ

They rate her as safe because the district is heavily Republican and Wulsin is a third-tier challenger. Because the district is so Republican, this is the first independent poll anyone has bothered to do on it. I expect that those groups will quickly shift this election to "Republican Likely" or "Republican Favored", whichever is one step away from safe and two steps away from "Toss-Up." Schmidt is going back to Washington again in November, but this race should be a little less close.


21 posted on 09/21/2006 12:20:12 PM PDT by HostileTerritory
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: TNCMAXQ

I suspect the undecideds are mostly conservatives who held their nose and voted for Schmidt in 2005 thinking they would be able to beat her in the primary in 2006. When they didnt, they got upset and are threatening not to vote.


22 posted on 09/21/2006 12:21:39 PM PDT by DontBelieveAugPolls
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: TNCMAXQ

By all measures Schmidt should be well ahead. 'Ohio is pissed off at Republicans' is not very thorough reasoning, but it's the best that comes to mind.


23 posted on 09/21/2006 12:23:08 PM PDT by DallasJ7
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: MineralMan
"Given the breakdown of the poll participants, this is not a good news poll for the Republican, in my opinion. It appears that some of that 49% of republicans in the poll are leaning towards the Democrat."

Says right in the text: "Republicans support Schmidt 6:1."

That's roughly 86%.

24 posted on 09/21/2006 12:25:39 PM PDT by Positive (Nothing is sadder than to see a beautiful theory murdered by a gang of brutal facts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Positive

I was talking about the breakdown of participants in the poll. As you can see below, and in the article, 49% of the participants were Republicans, yet the candidate got less than that percentage of votes.

It appears to me that some of the Republicans chose the Democrat. That's all I said. If you look back at the statement you quoted of mine, you'll see that I said just that.

Yes, 86% of the Republicans support Schmidt. That leaves 14% who do not. Of those, some probably are in the undecided group, but some also probably voted for the Democrat.


Partisan breakdown:
Republican 49%
Democrat 31%
Independent 18%


25 posted on 09/21/2006 12:30:21 PM PDT by MineralMan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: okstate

Wow. 25 posts and the brain-dead Brinkman crew has not shown up yet. Amazing.


26 posted on 09/21/2006 12:36:05 PM PDT by klute
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #27 Removed by Moderator

To: LS
"...Bush's approval numbers wouldn't correlate at all with GOP success..."

I think that when President Bush's approval numbers are taken in an area such as a congressional district, they will correlate...to the congressional race to some degree.

If taken in a state, same thing in the Senatorial race.

But the National Approval numbers are virtually meaningless.

Look at your red/blue maps...the blues are small in area but dense in population and the dims vote like limmings...89-11, 79-21 that sort of thing.

Now look at the reds, huge in area thinner in population and the margins are substantially closer 57-43, 55-45, 53-47.

My point is that the Congressional elections, especially the House will not correlate to President Bush's approval rating very closely...good or bad.

I mean Bernie Sanders, a registered Socialist is going to be elected to the U. S. Senate...how Republican do you expect his replacement in the House to be? Would that change if President Bush's national approval ratings were 80% positive?

28 posted on 09/21/2006 12:41:03 PM PDT by Positive (Nothing is sadder than to see a beautiful theory murdered by a gang of brutal facts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: okstate

Republicans have to GOTV.


29 posted on 09/21/2006 12:46:39 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I am SO glad to no longer be associated with the party of "dependence on government"!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MineralMan
Your point is clearer to me now...

I would guess that nearly all of the undecideds are Indies...12?

If 9% are indies an they break as the others 5:4 to the dim what would that mean? R-49 D-47.

Then if the other 3% go as the partisans went that would be R-51.35 D-48.26.

Also Schmid was only elected last year so she has less incumbency power than any other congress critter I think...so she isn't much of an indicator either.

30 posted on 09/21/2006 12:52:40 PM PDT by Positive (Nothing is sadder than to see a beautiful theory murdered by a gang of brutal facts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: LS; okstate; All

I couldn't agree more LS!

I live in the 2nd Congressional District and know the political dynamics well! . . . Per usual for Jean, the election will turn on the GOTV efforts in Clermont County -- Jean's home county! And, per usual, Clermont County will turn out BIG for Jean (as they did for President Bush who is VERY popular here)!!

[In all of Jean's previous elections (to include primaries), she broke even in Hamilton County and lost every other county in the 2nd congressional district EXCEPT Clermont and still won!!]


31 posted on 09/21/2006 12:53:17 PM PDT by DrDeb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Kuksool; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; AntiGuv

Yup. It's bad enough with McEwen and his check-kiting, but all the folks that think McEwen is hot $hit should consider that if Ted Strickland goes to Columbus in January, he owes the biggest thanks to Boob McEwen for making his entire public career a rousing success.


32 posted on 09/21/2006 12:53:58 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: okstate

Not to worry folks, gas prices coming down, dictators spouting the RAT line on our soil, the war on terror etc.
what do the RATS have to offer, higher taxes, more attacks on the homeland, liberal judges etc. Ohioans are smarter than that.


33 posted on 09/21/2006 1:00:24 PM PDT by KenmcG414
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS
If your analysis is correct, then Bush's approval numbers wouldn't correlate at all with GOP success. Yet the rebound in his poll numbers seems to tack perfectly with the rebound in GOP numbers across the board.

In your rush to contradict me, you said it precisely backwards. If my analysis is correct, then Bush's approval numbers should correlate very closely with GOP success. So, the rebound in GWB's approval numbers should tack with a rebound in GOP numbers across the board.

34 posted on 09/21/2006 1:02:10 PM PDT by AntiGuv ("..I do things for political expediency.." - Sen. John McCain on FOX News)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: LS

She was supposed to win in a walk this time. This is was supposedly "safe Republican" and now she's up only 3?


35 posted on 09/21/2006 1:27:49 PM PDT by okstate
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: drubyfive

Do NOT believe the agitprop you hear about a double-digit Strickland lead. All I will say is I have inside info, and Blackwell is doing just fine, esp. for this point in the game.


36 posted on 09/21/2006 1:36:48 PM PDT by LS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: drubyfive

Do NOT believe the agitprop you hear about a double-digit Strickland lead. All I will say is I have inside info, and Blackwell is doing just fine, esp. for this point in the game.


37 posted on 09/21/2006 1:36:59 PM PDT by LS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: okstate

OK state the Seminar Democrat is back. Bringing back the daily Doom and Gloom.


38 posted on 09/21/2006 1:46:08 PM PDT by Welike ike
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: LS

But LS, of course all the experts here about Ohio do not even live in the state. They spewed this same crap in 2004 saying Kerry would win Ohio. Anti-GUV were you dooming in 2004 also?


39 posted on 09/21/2006 1:47:48 PM PDT by Welike ike
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: okstate

I am not up-to-date on this race but when an incumbent is in this kind of trouble after Labor Day, it's not a good sign.


40 posted on 09/21/2006 1:48:53 PM PDT by no dems ("25 homicides a day committed by Illegals" Ted Poe (R-TX) Houston Hearings 8/16/06)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson