In your rush to contradict me, you said it precisely backwards. If my analysis is correct, then Bush's approval numbers should correlate very closely with GOP success. So, the rebound in GWB's approval numbers should tack with a rebound in GOP numbers across the board.
I don't think it's either. I think it's ISSUES, and the perception of th WoT as the central issue, combined with gas prices, has played a central role in the GOP's rebound.