Posted on 09/21/2006 10:57:13 AM PDT by okstate
Schmidt (R) 45%
Wulsin (D) 42%
Other 1%
Undecided 12%
Topline numbers based on 497 likely voters called between September 17th and 19th.
Partisan breakdown:
Republican 49%
Democrat 31%
Independent 18%
In an election for US House of Representatives in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District today, 9/20/06, Republican Congresswoman Jean Schmidt leads Democrat Victoria Wulsin by 3 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati. 7 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Schmidt gets 45%. Wulsin gets 42%. The 3-point edge is within the poll's 4.5% margin of sampling error, and is not statistically significant. Republicans support Schmidt 6:1. Democrats support Wulsin 14:1. Independents break 5:4 for Wulsin. Republicans have a 3:2 advantage among 2nd CD likely voters. Wulsin leads among lower-income voters. Schmidt leads among middle-income voters. The two tie among upper-income voters. Schmidt is up slightly among men. Wulsin is up slightly among women. Though Wulsin leads 5:3 among Moderates, that is not enough to overcome the 9:2 lead Schmidt has among Conservatives. Of those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance, 79% support Schmidt. Of those who disapprove of Bush's performance, 80% support Wulsin. President Bush's approval rating among likely voters in Ohio's 2nd CD is 50%. Schmidt was first elected to Congress in a special election in 2005.
It means that Ohio will probably be disastrous for the GOP.
Given the breakdown of the poll participants, this is not a good news poll for the Republican, in my opinion. It appears that some of that 49% of republicans in the poll are leaning towards the Democrat.
It's very close, of course, in the poll, but that big block of Independents is worrisome.
I've definitely noticed that trend as well, and I have something of a working hypothesis on why that's happening. I think that if the election is ultimately a referendum on GWB, it's the more conservative House members in the 55-60% GOP districts that are having problems because they don't distance themselves from President Bush. Meanwhile, the more moderate House members in the more marginal districts (closer to 50/50) have for the most part aggressively distanced themselves from GWB on at least one or two big issues.
I'm not so sure that this is a referendum on GWB. I think that the media has been blitzing for the Democrats since march, prophesizing a sea change in congress, and a major bloodletting for Republicans. They have hammered Bush on virtually every point available: Katrina one year later, energy prices, Iraq, "illegal" wiretapping, torture of innocent "insurgents," you name it. They put Murtha out as a courageous veteran, and gloss over Democrat corruption. They know that the people still read newspapers and watch TV, and they use current events and manufature "news" in a massive PR campaign against Bush and the Republicans.
I have my misgivings about Bush's immigration policies, but he's just doing his job as he sees it, and it will be the next President's job to do otherwise. That is why Presidents only get the job for 8 years. I have a sense of unease about the leadership in the Senate being wimpy Frist, after Lott who was such a wimp before him. But still, I will vote for the Republican candidate, because the alternative is so scary as to not be worthy of consideration.
Huh? Schmidt was supposed to LOSE last time. Now she's got a clear lead. It portends a damn good election year here in OH. And, btw, I have just a little internal data to suggest that is exactly what is happening.
Here in OH, the guys who were tight with Bush are in no trouble at all; but it's DeWine, who frequently distanced himself from Bush, who is having trouble.
Anti-Guv cmon, are still glooming and dooming?? This is a Survey USA poll for God sakes. GOTV will have winning by 10% and you know it.
I live in Jean Schmidt's district. It has been Republican for a long time. I think she will win. Wulsin is a RAT/lib/socialist poseur.
Anti-Guv, I am suprised your theories used to be much better.
In 1998 the Republicans were looking at a 20 to 30 seat pickup due to the obvious problems of Clinton, but they made the mistake of making Bill Clinton the focus of their campaign and lost 3 seats.
The Democrats have made the same mistake in 2006 by focusing solely on hatred of Bush. The Left even applauds madmen like Chavez and the Iranian Anti-Semitic to help their cause.
Anti-Guv did you have your coffee today???
I hope the Boob McEwen Groupies won't vote for the RAT out of spite. McEwen wants to get back into Congress, just to bounce more checks.
Right LS, and is the experts like Anti-Guv and others who think they know Ohio better than you.
Right LS, and is the experts like Anti-Guv and others who think they know Ohio better than you.
Predictions on the upcoming election are not at all uniform, in any case. The New York Times pre-election map says Schmidt's seat is "safe Republican." That seems to contradict this poll. I suspect anyway that Schmidt will win. Not only is this a strongly GOP district as you say, but it is very rare for an incumbent who won a special election to be ousted when they seek a full term.
This poll seems about right to me. If Paul Hackett was facing Schmidt in this bad year for Ohio Republicans, he'd probably be leading. But the Dems have a worse candidate this time and so Schmidt has a small lead.
So that is why Blackwell is cruising.
Do tell.
Congressional Quarterly's election outlook page also says Schmidt is "safe." Very interesting. Either they think this poll and others are not accurate, or they give her an edge because of registration and funding.
The Times and CQ projections in other races are kind of puzzling too though. I forget which one has consistently shown Sen Talent to be slightly ahead while every poll has shown him behind. They have the MT Senate race listed as a toss up though poor Sen Burns has been trailing in every poll for months. So maybe these prognosticators see things we don't. Midterm elections often have a lot of surprises.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.