Posted on 09/19/2006 10:02:04 AM PDT by okstate
SOUTH BEND -- Democrat Joe Donnelly appears to be increasing his lead over incumbent U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola in what is still a tight 2nd District congressional race.
A weekend Tribune/WSBT-TV poll of 400 likely voters showed Donnelly with a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over Chocola, with 8 percent undecided and a 5 percent margin of error.
That compares to a July poll that showed Donnelly with a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over Chocola, with 13 percent undecided and the same 5 percent margin of error.
(Excerpt) Read more at southbendtribune.com ...
I was in South Bend on Saturday. I counted 4 Donnelly yard signs to zero for Chocola.
Not a good 'omen' for the Republicans--an incumbent in a 'red' state that can't hold his seat. This would be a big loss for the Republicans since the second district is not 'nut-case' blue--like Lake County.
I think that Donnelly has a chance if they keep his brother "Tommy Boy" under wraps and out of town. Maybe they should hire someone to keep an eye on him!
I'm still counting on the broken glass Republicans to show up, walking over broken glass to get to the polls. The liberals, who talk a great game, tend not to show up in off year elections in the same percentage as the Presidential election year. I also think they tend to write Chocola, and Hostettler, of Indiana's 8th Congressional District, off as political roadkill every two years. I'll believe it when I see it.
Oh well, I guess that Hoosiers in the 'second district' don't mind 'appeasement abroad'--and HIGHER TAXES at home.
I'm guessing this was a Bush district. Why can't Chocola hold it? I'm wondering the same thing also about Sodrel, in another Indiana district. If the GOP loses 2 in that red state it will be very bad.
I heard Club for Growth will be riding to Chocola's rescue. I think their help will put him over the top.
Probably three, because Hostettler in the 8th district is in trouble, too.
This is just another example of the disconnect between what the media likes to think are "likely voters" and who really votes. Chocola won't have a landslide but he has no skeletons, no major gaffs, and his district is more conservative than the MSM wants to admit. Unless he attacks a capitol police officer or kills an intern he is safe.
This state is not as red as you think. We had many years with a Dem governor. There are state reps that bounce back and forth every few years. We have sent Bayh to the senate. That alone should tell you something. He passes himself off as a fiscal conservative to the "independent" voters.
The polls are generally accurate whether you like them or not. The fact is that all of the public polls on IN-2 show Chocola losing. Granted Research 2000 leaned left about 2 points in 2004, but that's not enough to give Chocola the lead. I think he's probably going to lose.
It's not just Chocola in trouble in Indiana. Hostettler and Sodrel are, too, which should tell you that the state is not as red as you think.
Money is a decent point, but it only goes so far. Santorum leads in money in PA and he's still down by about this margin.
I don't know what national trend toward the GOP you see. Most polling of Senate races at least shows Rats have gained in the last month (the exceptions being New Jersey and Virginia). As for this race, as I stated in comment number one, Chocola has LOST ground since July.
Yes, the NRCC can and should pour money into the race. But again, is it enough? Because the Rats have made Chocola one of their targets, too.
Incumbency is becoming sort of a liability in this election, given national moods.
Yes, it's early. But in another sense it's late, too... only 7 weeks remain until election day now, and a 9-point (or even 6 point) deficit is difficult to overcome.
In my heart I hope you are right. But in my brain I know you aren't.
Someone help me out here - -
Everyone from Hannity to Limbaugh to Dick Morris is talking up the big turnaround in GOP fortunes.
But if you check polls like this one and those on Real Clear Politics (add in Rasmussen's GWB polling data of the last few days), the "surge" appears to be short-lived or statistical noise at best.
Wish I could say otherwise, but I think the GOP smiles are a bit premature.
You got to admit Daler that the RATs say Hostettler is going down every election. And every election, the Republicans pour in a lot of money and pull his bacon out of the fire. Why would this year be any different. I'm just saying that I hear the same RAT refrain every two years, and then reality sets in.
I listen to all those you mention and they have pointed out, as Gallup pointed out today that there has been movement in Republican numbers. Republicans fearful of bela pelosi as Speaker of the House are gravitating back to their party. I don't think this means that Republicans are becoming complacent if anything it makes me want to work harder for my party.
For instance, I picked up a vote for Dave Weldon, my Conservative Republican Representative. My wife and I ate at a restaurant and I convinced our waitress to cast a vote for Weldon. She was going to vote but didn't know who she wanted to support. I think Republicans are doing this all over the country. And it will translate into keeping the House and Senate in GOP hands or a wringing victory against the appeasers and defeatocrats.
Keep smiling and dialing, and we have a great chance to pull this off.
All our ground info, for ex., here in OH, is showing the polls aren't even close.
I'm even thinking the LS rule might be a little too tight.
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