It's not just Chocola in trouble in Indiana. Hostettler and Sodrel are, too, which should tell you that the state is not as red as you think.
Money is a decent point, but it only goes so far. Santorum leads in money in PA and he's still down by about this margin.
I don't know what national trend toward the GOP you see. Most polling of Senate races at least shows Rats have gained in the last month (the exceptions being New Jersey and Virginia). As for this race, as I stated in comment number one, Chocola has LOST ground since July.
Yes, the NRCC can and should pour money into the race. But again, is it enough? Because the Rats have made Chocola one of their targets, too.
Incumbency is becoming sort of a liability in this election, given national moods.
Yes, it's early. But in another sense it's late, too... only 7 weeks remain until election day now, and a 9-point (or even 6 point) deficit is difficult to overcome.
In my heart I hope you are right. But in my brain I know you aren't.