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Poll: War concerns hampering Kean Senate bid (Kean leads 43-39)
San Jose Mercury News ^
| 30 August 2006
| Associated Press
Posted on 08/30/2006 11:11:16 AM PDT by okstate
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Talk about a misleading headline, since Kean is LEADING this race. And a "4-point lead" = "virtual tie"? More typical AP reporting...
1
posted on
08/30/2006 11:11:17 AM PDT
by
okstate
To: okstate
Hey, I'm concerned he'll go wobbly on the war.
But then again, I'm not voting for him anyway.
See tagline.
2
posted on
08/30/2006 11:12:28 AM PDT
by
Antoninus
(I don't vote for liberals, regardless of party.)
To: okstate
if the war were not a factor...Bravo Sierra
3
posted on
08/30/2006 11:12:44 AM PDT
by
rhombus
To: okstate
I am starting to think '06 won't be nearly as bad for the GOP as we have feared.
It is looking more and more like a status quo election and with a few breaks we might even pick up a seat or two.
To: okstate
43-39 DEADLOCKED!!!
5
posted on
08/30/2006 11:14:42 AM PDT
by
BallyBill
(Serial Hit-N-Run poster)
To: okstate
Maybe the war is a boon for Kean since the incumbent (sort of) is Menendez. Great spin!
To: comebacknewt
---
I am starting to think '06 won't be nearly as bad for the GOP as we have feared.
---
Evil Karl Rove is working a deal with the Mexican government to allow a large stash of weed to come across the border October 31st just in time for the November 2006 elections and all the "Vote or Die" liberal crowd will be too stone to vote.
7
posted on
08/30/2006 11:18:48 AM PDT
by
avacado
To: comebacknewt
I've been also thinking along those lines.
If we vote, and get most other GOP voters to vote, we will do fine.
8
posted on
08/30/2006 11:19:25 AM PDT
by
bill1952
("All that we do is done with an eye towards something else.")
To: okstate
Wow. The dude has a 4 point lead in NJ! This is great news.
9
posted on
08/30/2006 11:21:04 AM PDT
by
hawkaw
To: hawkaw
This is the first time any GOP challenger is leading a Democrat, I think. It is good news, even if Kean is no conservative. If he wins, it will go a long way towards offsetting possible losses elsewhere.
10
posted on
08/30/2006 11:56:57 AM PDT
by
TNCMAXQ
To: okstate
"Those asked about Bush and Iraq first gave Menendez a 41-39 percent edge. But respondents not asked to think about the war first gave favored Kean, 47-36 percent."
Here's the problem with this poll and others. The real truth about the war is that sadly enough, people DON'T CARE about it EITHER way. When the rodents turn out against the war they get 200 or less people no matter where. When Americans are asked to turn out to support the war the turn out is about 200 people.
NO MATTER WHAT THE "Experts" in the Beltway have talked themselves into believing, people just don't care about the war. When open ended surveys ask what issues are important to people, they say things like : the economy is bad, the war is bad, this is bad that is bad. These are answers from people who are not paying attention. They are pleasing the questioner. How can ANY thinking American say the economy is bad?
So the ratpollsters use the war question as a way of working for rat candidates. They are, in effect, saying "Hey you're losing, so you better tie your opponent to the war because nothing else is working."
Menedez is a thief. He was a thief when he was the mayor of Union and he was the Hudson County rat party's bag man for 12 years. Voters know this. But this is New Jersey where voters are dumber than in any other state.
Regardless of these bull shiite polls, if the brain dead voters in NJ are sick of ratcrap, menedez is gone. If they will eat another hot steaming plate of rat droppings, Kean is gone. It really is as simple as that.
11
posted on
08/30/2006 12:31:33 PM PDT
by
jmaroneps37
(John Spencer: Fighting to save America from Hillary Clinton..)
To: okstate
This is huge new, because a) he's had a steady lead, and b) because I think ALL the polls are, for some weird reason, undersampling Pubbies. If Santorum and Burns hold, and we lose Chafee, right now there is no change. But I think we'll also get MN for +1. Now, if Chafee has more starch in his drawers than I think, it could really get interesting . . . and downright suicidal for the Dems.
12
posted on
08/30/2006 12:35:26 PM PDT
by
LS
To: TNCMAXQ
I'll say again: I don't understand why, but ALL---that is EVERY ONE---of the polls this time out for some reason is undercounting Republicans. NONE of the polls is 2-3% close to where the GOP vote really is. So if you add 2-3% to all the GOP candidates, then we'll talk who might lose a seat. In 1996, every one of the polls---every single one---was off in Clinton's direction by anywhere from 1% to 6%. It's not "randomness," becuase not one single poll had Dole higher than where he finished, and if it was just an accident, one or two would have been off in Dole's favor. So there is some phenomena here no one has figured out yet.
13
posted on
08/30/2006 12:39:15 PM PDT
by
LS
To: Antoninus
Its unfortunate that Ginty has lost, but you can't hand the election to Menendez. You may not like having to simply take the lesser of two evils, but its a fact of life. Fight the RINO's in the primary, but always fight the RATS in November.
14
posted on
08/30/2006 2:30:03 PM PDT
by
MassachusettsGOP
(May the West and Republicans Always Win...)
To: LS
Actually, it looks like Kennedy will lose and it won't be as close as we'd thought.
The more interesting race right now is Bouchard in Michigan. It seems he's closed the gap to 6-7 points.
The only real chance for an upset right now in the midwest seems to be Bouchard/Stabenow. Kennedy/Klochbar has, unfortunately, been polling well into a double-digit lead for the Democrat for several polls in a row, including GOP polls.
Bouchard is popular in an area of Michigan where Stabenow garnered a boondoggle of votes last time. He was sheriff there, and has a good reputation. GOPers are hoping that's enough to win a tight race.
I had hoped Kennedy would pull the upset in Minnesota, but it looks like that ain't gonna happen. My hopes now lie with Bouchard, who seems to be making a real push with 70 days left.
Maybe, just maybe.............
15
posted on
08/30/2006 3:32:30 PM PDT
by
TitansAFC
("Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.")
To: LS
I agree with the complaints of the undersampling. However, NJ is an exception to the rule. It is one of maybe three states where the vote tally always favors the Democrat candidate more than the polls indicated. I think part of the problem is the "independents," who aren't really independent but Democrats who don't want to be identified with a party.
Undecideds in NJ always break overwhelmingly for the Democrat. New Jersey is very unique in that respect. That's why I need to see Kean 8-10 points ahead to believe he'll win a close race. Every election I hear about the chance of a Republican winning NJ, and every election they lose by double-digits when the tally actually comes in.
I really hope Kean builds some mojo.
16
posted on
08/30/2006 3:36:26 PM PDT
by
TitansAFC
("Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.")
To: okstate
The U.S. Senate race between Republican Tom Kean Jr. Is this the same Tom Kean who led 9/11 committee whitewash for the Democrats?
17
posted on
08/30/2006 3:50:26 PM PDT
by
RJL
To: RJL
No, it's his son who is running in NJ, I believe.
18
posted on
08/30/2006 4:03:07 PM PDT
by
okstate
To: TitansAFC
I hear what you're saying about NJ.
Unfortunately, I still have a bad feeling that we are going to have another big terrorist incident before November that will drastically shift the vote further to the GOP.
19
posted on
08/30/2006 4:31:08 PM PDT
by
LS
To: okstate
Since NJ is Latino north I doubt that Kean has a real chance war or not.
20
posted on
08/30/2006 4:38:10 PM PDT
by
Spirited
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