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Winds Of Political Change Beginning To Favor Republicans
Real Clear Politics (originally in USA Today) ^ | 8/28/06 | Michael Barone

Posted on 08/28/2006 8:56:25 PM PDT by Rawlings

There seems to have been a change in the political winds. They've been blowing pretty strongly against George W. Bush and the Republicans this spring and early this summer. Now, their velocity looks to be tapering off or perhaps shifting direction.

When asked what would affect the future, the British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan famously said: "Events, dear boy. Events." The event this month that I think has done most to shape opinion was the arrest in London on Aug. 9 of 23 Muslims suspected of plotting to blow up American airliners over the Atlantic.

The arrests were a reminder that there still are lots of people in the world -- and quite possibly in this country, too -- who are trying to kill as many of us as they can and to destroy our way of life. They are not unhappy because we haven't raised the minimum wage lately or because Bush rejected the Kyoto Treaty or even because we're in Iraq.

They've been trying to kill us for years, going back at least to 1983, when a Hezbollah suicide bomber killed 241 American servicemen in Lebanon. Then they attacked the World Trade Center, the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and the USS Cole in Aden -- all while Bill Clinton was president. Sept. 11 woke us up to the threat. The political acrimony of 2004 and 2005 and this year made it seem remote. The London arrests reminded us it's still there.

We've had other reminders, too. For four years, Hollywood has seemed mostly uninterested in the war on terrorism -- in vivid contrast to its enlistment in World War II.

But this year, we've seen the release of "United 93," and, in "World Trade Center," Oliver Stone presents us not with one of his conspiracy theories but, instead, a story of heroism. On Sept. 10 and 11, ABC will devote six hours of prime time to "The Path to 9-11," a fast-paced, bracing docudrama that tells the story of the terrorists and the people who tried to stop them, from the first WTC bombing in 1993 to 9-11 itself. And this will be only one of many commemorations of the fifth anniversary.

As it happens, the London arrests came almost exactly 24 hours after antiwar candidate Ned Lamont, flanked by Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, claimed victory over Sen. Joseph Lieberman in the Connecticut Democratic primary. The Lamont victory -- and the rejection of the party's 2000 vice presidential nominee -- sharpened the contrast between the two major parties.

One, it seems, would withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible without regard for the consequences -- an initially popular position for those who consider our effort there either misbegotten or hopelessly bungled. The other, it seems, would stay the course until we achieve our goals -- one that may become more acceptable if people come to think that withdrawal would not make us safe. The London arrests seem to have accelerated this thought process.

Polls since the London arrests suggest what has been happening. Bush's job approval was up significantly in the Gallup Poll, usually the most volatile of national polls, and the Democratic margin in the generic question (Which party's candidate for the House would you vote for?) was sharply reduced. There was a similar trend in generic vote in the Rasmussen poll, which is ordinarily much less volatile than Gallup.

Connecticut polls showed Lieberman, running as an independent, ahead of Lamont, with Lamont having strikingly high negatives for a candidate with such limited public exposure. It seems to be a fact -- remember the Paul Wellstone funeral in 2002? -- that when most Americans see the hard left of the Democratic Party in action, they don't much like what they see.

Of course, they don't like to see violence in Iraq, either.

But the sectarian killings that flared up in Baghdad in June and July have been reduced -- by 30 percent, says ABC News -- by intensive patrolling by U.S. and, more importantly, Iraqi troops. It's not clear, of course, whether the reductions will continue. Other threats still exist, like Iran's nuclear program.

Earlier this summer, I thought that voters had decided that the Republicans deserved to lose but were not sure that the Democrats deserved to win, and that they were going to wait, as they did in the 1980 presidential and the 1994 congressional elections, to see if the opposition was an acceptable alternative. Events seem to have made that a harder sell for Democrats. A change in the winds.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; elections; gop; michaelbarone; midterms; predictions; republicans
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Whether this bump is permanent or not, the terror issue will (because it must) trump other issues. This, in my opinion, will help the GOP actually make gains in November. I think the GOP will get 1 or 2 in the House and 3 or more in the Senate. What does everyone else think?
1 posted on 08/28/2006 8:56:26 PM PDT by Rawlings
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To: Rawlings

bttt


2 posted on 08/28/2006 9:00:21 PM PDT by Hound of the Baskervilles (A)
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To: Rawlings

And when Bush gets in campaign mode, there are few as good as he is! LOL The dems wetdream is gonna give them sticky sheets, and that's about it.


3 posted on 08/28/2006 9:02:31 PM PDT by pissant
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To: Rawlings

Wait til after Labor Day when people have finished their vacations. Then the campaigns start. Advantage R.


4 posted on 08/28/2006 9:02:51 PM PDT by ClaireSolt (.)
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To: Rawlings
As in the last election, I believe that when people are standing there alone deciding which (figurative nowadays)lever to pull they will go Republican, because the alternative is too awful and dangerous to consider.
5 posted on 08/28/2006 9:04:21 PM PDT by Uriah_lost (M.I.E. Mainer In Exile I'll come back when the Massholes go home.)
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To: Rawlings

I think that's overly optimistic. I foresee Burns and Chafee losing in RI, and the Democrats winning all their contested seats. I see about a 6 or 7 seat pickup in the House. The only House democrat I can see losing is Boswell. (and Jefferson, to another Dem)

But it will never approach the netroots dream. Even with my scenario, they will cry, and it will be beautiful.


6 posted on 08/28/2006 9:04:39 PM PDT by RippyO
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To: Rawlings
"This, in my opinion, will help the GOP actually make gains in November. I think the GOP will get 1 or 2 in the House and 3 or more in the Senate. What does everyone else think?"
___________________________

I think the Pubs are going to lose most close races this time around. Down 4 seats in the senate and lose 7 seats in the house. The Pubs will still have majorities, but just barely and with the rino's that will force more moves to the left that majority won't last.

The wild card is Iran. When they test their first nuclear bomb the Pubs will lose their edge on the WOT issue.
7 posted on 08/28/2006 9:07:29 PM PDT by wmfights (Psalm : 27)
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To: Rawlings

Wouldn't the DemocRATS howl if they lost seats in both the House and Senate while having a "lead" in the polls going into election day?


8 posted on 08/28/2006 9:08:57 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: Rawlings
It seems to be a fact -- remember the Paul Wellstone funeral in 2002? -- that when most Americans see the hard left of the Democratic Party in action, they don't much like what they see.

The dems really aren't doing themselves any favors.

9 posted on 08/28/2006 9:11:06 PM PDT by hsalaw
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To: Rawlings

As long as we keep the power, I'll be satisfied. Good to see a positive article for the Republicans, for a change.

The Democrats really don't offer this country much....especially with what is going on in the world.


10 posted on 08/28/2006 9:11:32 PM PDT by TheLion
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To: Rawlings

bump for later read


11 posted on 08/28/2006 9:12:47 PM PDT by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: Rawlings

I hope that you are correct.The threat is out there and is close.I hope that the people of our country realize this and vote accordingly.


12 posted on 08/28/2006 9:13:00 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Defeat liberalism, its the right thing to do for America.)
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To: Paleo Conservative

Imagine, for one sweet moment, if Ricky wins his race, Murtha loses his, and the GOP sustained minor losses or even wins, and Jomentum carries the day in Connecticut. Can you imagine? If Jimmy Carville gave himself a pie-in-the-face with Russert, what will he do now? Will he die himself red? Don't think it can't happen either. Murtha's district went only 51-49 for Kerry and lots of money is going into that race. Rickypalooza is getting smokin' hot and Jomentum is back big time.

Now for a prayer: Please, Lord, let Howlin' Howie blow a gasket on November 7 on CNN. Please let John Murtha decide to join Al-Queda. Please let the nutroots move to France. Please, Almighty God.


13 posted on 08/28/2006 9:13:36 PM PDT by Rawlings (Tipton Time!)
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To: Rawlings
Barone nails it. The UK bombing plot COULD have been another 9-11. A friend argued with me that the UK resents that the US pressured them to make arrests, and I replied "Maybe if we'd been more aggressive with that computer we had in our possession 9-11 would never have happened."

If people get over their bad feelings about Iraq (and the childish need to make it "just go away" the way the dems want with their "redeployment")and high gas prices and such, they will be left with this thought: "Do I want to give power to the party that feels sorry for al qaeda agents at Gitmo?"

If they answer that question with intelligence, we win.

14 posted on 08/28/2006 9:13:58 PM PDT by Darkwolf377
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To: wmfights
The wild card is Iran. When they test their first nuclear bomb the Pubs will lose their edge on the WOT issue.

How so? Who is thinking "I'll put the Dems in power, they'll clear up this Iran mess"?

15 posted on 08/28/2006 9:15:22 PM PDT by Darkwolf377
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To: Rawlings

If people can think beyond what the mainstream media tells them to think and draw opinions based on facts and not bullshit I'd say the GOP stands a decent shot of at least maintaining the majority in the House and Senate !!!


16 posted on 08/28/2006 9:18:01 PM PDT by Obie Wan
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To: Darkwolf377

Other than the Iranians.


17 posted on 08/28/2006 9:18:39 PM PDT by maro
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To: Rawlings

Well if this change is permanent, maybe it will help Rep. Katherine Harris of Florida get elected to the Senate and defeat incumbent Democrat Nelson ! ?


18 posted on 08/28/2006 9:21:06 PM PDT by marc costanzo (I dare a Liberal to post on this forum !)
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To: Darkwolf377
I agree. Let Iran escalate the situation even more before the Nov. elections. It will only frighten and worry people more; therefore they will trend republican. The security moms will not vote democrat this fall.

For national security issues, the majority of americans WILL NOT TRUST A SF LIBERAL (PELOSI) LEADING THE HOUSE AND WUSSY REID (WHOM IS BECOMING MORE UNPOPULAR AT HOME EVERYDAY IN NEVADA, WHICH IS RED) LEADING THE SENATE to deal with the fanatics around the world. Pelosi and Reid would be controlling the purse strings and can vote to end funding the war in Iraq which would be a very big mistake. We have Iran in a tight spot now with troops on both sides of their borders where WE CONTROL THE AIRSPACE.

Make no mistake, the republicans have some great cards up their sleeves that will emerge before Nov.

Jefferson will be indicted. More about the leak investigations will be known and look for donks to be snarled up to their panties in them. It is no secrest DURBIN AND ROCKEFELLER have been quiet for a long time.
19 posted on 08/28/2006 9:24:51 PM PDT by jrooney ( Hold your cards close.)
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To: marc costanzo

I think it is going to take more than a shift in the political winds for that to happen. Her latest gaffe made national news.


20 posted on 08/28/2006 9:26:58 PM PDT by Prodn2000
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