If people get over their bad feelings about Iraq (and the childish need to make it "just go away" the way the dems want with their "redeployment")and high gas prices and such, they will be left with this thought: "Do I want to give power to the party that feels sorry for al qaeda agents at Gitmo?"
If they answer that question with intelligence, we win.
You mentioned something else that has not been mention - here - and may play a part. Gas prices are going down! They are not nearly as low as this time last year, but 25 cents is 25 cents. And what if they go down nationwide another 30-40 by November? Would that not be good news for the Pubbies?