Shocker: Democrat lead in US House race drops to only two points (the worm is turning Smithers)

Human Events ^ | 8/22/06 | Election Dog

[teddyballgame]

And just as I reported earlier today on the problems with the Gallup poll and other surveys showing a bias for Democrats, the Gallup poll suddenly reports a dramatic drop in the Democrat lead in the US House race to only two points.

In a poll taken over the weekend, the poll of registered voters shows that Democrats now lead only 47%-45% which is down from a nine percentage point lead earlier in August. This is well within the poll's margin of error (+-4%) so the race is essentially even. It is the best showing for Republicans in this poll since just before the 2004 November election when Democrats were ahead by four points among registered voters, but Republicans still won the popular U.S. vote and a 232-203 lead in House seats.

According to the poll, the sudden focus on the war on terror has greatly helped the GOP. The poll states that "President Bush's approval rating has topped 40% for the first time since February...Behind the movements: In the wake of the terror plot that British authorities say they broke up, Bush seems to have gotten a boost. Some of that may have reflected positively on Republican candidates as well.

[HostileTerritory]

If Casey loses this, we may finally have that elusive first datapoint for the persistent "Santorum always runs behind and wins with 51%" meme.

[AuH2ORepublican]

President Bush got 53% and 57% in 2000 and 2004, respectively, in the NJ-05; he got 50% and 53% in 2000 and 2004, respectively, in the AZ-08. So the NJ-05 is at least 3%-4% more Republican than the AZ-08, and I would posit that President Bush's performance in Northern NJ and other parts of the Northeast understated the Republicanness of the district more than it did in Arizona (although Bush did underperform in AZ in 2000). I would call the AZ-08 a 53% GOP CD and the NJ-05 a 60% GOP CD.

But the fact that the Democrats didn't come close to defeating the very conservative Garrett means that the fact that supposedly many Republicans in those districts were liberal does not mean that they would be willing to vote for George W. Bush but not for a conservative House candidate. I would also note that Graf's most conservative position is on illegal immigration, and that's one issue on which Arizona voters are more conservative than the President.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"As for Giffords, the worst thing that could happen if she wins the seat and the Dems capture Congress, that she will be toast in '08 -- against Graf."

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I think Giffords is a strong candidate for the Democrats (she showed balls by resigning from the Senate last December in order to jump into the AZ-08 race), and would not be a pushover in 2008 if she won this year. But if Senate Majority Leader Timothy Bee (who is still in his 30s and whose Senate district lies wholly within the AZ-08) ran for the House seat in 2008, I think the GOP would win it fairly easily. Why didn't Bee run for the seat this year? Did early announcements by Graf and others convince him not to jump in?

[fieldmarshaldj]

I honestly don't know. Perhaps he was deferring to Graf, or maybe wanted to avoid a messy primary battle with multiple contestants.

[AntiGuv]

A lot of Republicans have made decisions on whether to run this year with the assumption that this will be a very Dem-favorable election cycle. So, even if you're absolutely certain it won't be you still need to factor in the widespread belief among others when assessing their decisions.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"A lot of Republicans have made decisions on whether to run this year with the assumption that this will be a very Dem-favorable election cycle."

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That is certainly true, but when Kolbe announced his retirement that was not necessarily the case, and it seems to me that running in an open-seat situation in 2006 would still be easier than running against an incumbent Giffords in 2008.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I could be in error on this, but Bee is on track to becoming AZ State Senate President for the 2007-09 session and may wish to use it as a jumping-off point to run for Governor in 2010 when the seat comes open. He just may not be interested in federal office and being a backbencher in DC when he's a power player in Arizona.

[AntiGuv]

Tim Bee seriously explored running for the AZ-08 open seat and is term limited out of his current office in 2008. The best explanation in my view for why he did not run is because he considered it too risky compared to the alternative (an excellent shot at AZ Senate President).

[SunkenCiv]

sorocrats -- my favorite recent keyword on FR (thanks to whomever originated it)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=sorocrats

[Fred Nerks]

The penny just dropped! I wondered why we were being hammered with Katrina images on the nightly 'news' - figured it couldn't just be the anniversary angle.

Then I remembered, there are, last I heard, some 100,000 expat US citizens living in Oz.

Aussies are being inundated (!) with 'poor poor folks in NO' and 'the government failed those folks' for the expat vote.

[185JHP]

Amazing but true: denizens of a major party's response to 9/11 was/is: "We deserved it" (!!!)

[Sam Spade]

Just flagging with this poll because I can't think of a better thread and I don't want to post a new one.

http://www.siena.edu/sri/results/2006/20th_Cong_Poll.htm

Siena College releases a poll today on NY-20 showing Sweeney ahead of Gillibrand by a 53-34 margin.

Although it's a uni congressional poll in the middle of the summer, it's at least an Indy poll. That entitles it to something, though I don't know what exactly. :)

[AuH2ORepublican]

Hey, CF, an independent poll of registered voters (taken in late August, mind you) was just released showing Congressman Sweeney up by 53%-34% in the NY-20. Do you still think he's going to lose in November?

[fieldmarshaldj]

It underscores my point that the frat house incident was silly and all but forgotten by the voters. I wonder if they have any polls taken in the PA Sherwood contest, the one I really worry about. I still can't believe he wasn't asked to step aside.

[Luke21]

A great post. Thank you.

[Luke21]

A "soccer mom" is a euphemism. These were the ladies who were ensnared by feminism and did so much damage with their votes back in the early nineties. They elected the Patty Murray's (who claimed to be one of them) and the Boxer's of the world.

"Stay at home" moms are the first line of defense against the ugliness and filth being taught to innocent children. There is a huge difference.

[george wythe]

The Dems peaked too early, assuming the previous polls were correct

[Luke21]

"I have always believed that if the RATS experienced for a week what Republicans suffer 24/7/365 from the MSM, they would all have a nervous breakdown. There is simply no comparison of the skepticism, disdain, bias, and outright hatred inflicted upon GOP candidates."

That is a fabulous observation. In the Reagan era, we were told every night and in every newspaper that people hated the Gipper, that they wanted a "nuclear freeze," and that Reagan created AIDS and homelessness while being a dangerous warmonger and a doddering, sleeping fool simultaneously. It was hysteria and it was swallowed by many. The silent majority had no voice at all.

Reagan's two off year elections were disasters. The GOP was overwhelmed by the press and its one sidedness. They peaked in the 1992 cycle, which elected Clinton and a boatload of female Democrat senators.

If the libs had to do anything but listen to CNN and Katie tell them what to feel, they would go even more insane than they are.

[Luke21]

I stopped watching Commie Span fourteen years ago.

[Luke21]

I didn't vote for Kolbe. I could never vote for that scoundrel. His voting record alone disqualifies him, never mind his lifestyle. He is a human rodent.

As for AZ-8, I live in it. It isn't conservative within the city of Tucson, which is a Bolshevik nest. But Cochise County and many of the outlying areas are Graf strongholds, or at least were. Graf forced Kolbe into mailing "Howdy Neighbor" mailings to every home in the district last time. These cheesy mailings showed Kolbe reading stories to kids on the porch. They should have taken pictures of him at one of his famous toga parties. I had a gay friend of mine go to one of them once.

Kolbe has been a rep here for almost a quarter century and Graf still got forty percent of the primary vote last time. He is not favored by the GOP establishment, because the border is his big issue. He might be another Tancredo if elected. This Giffords has bumper stickers on the back of every deranged driver I see, so she may be popular among the libs, who will try to nominate the biggest nut they can find. Make that second biggest because the biggest commie is already in the governor's office here. But right now, elections aren't even on people's minds, Labor Day is.