"Democrat lead in US House race drops to only two points"
Posted on 08/22/2006 5:55:48 AM PDT by teddyballgame
And just as I reported earlier today on the problems with the Gallup poll and other surveys showing a bias for Democrats, the Gallup poll suddenly reports a dramatic drop in the Democrat lead in the US House race to only two points.
In a poll taken over the weekend, the poll of registered voters shows that Democrats now lead only 47%-45% which is down from a nine percentage point lead earlier in August. This is well within the poll's margin of error (+-4%) so the race is essentially even. It is the best showing for Republicans in this poll since just before the 2004 November election when Democrats were ahead by four points among registered voters, but Republicans still won the popular U.S. vote and a 232-203 lead in House seats.
According to the poll, the sudden focus on the war on terror has greatly helped the GOP. The poll states that "President Bush's approval rating has topped 40% for the first time since February...Behind the movements: In the wake of the terror plot that British authorities say they broke up, Bush seems to have gotten a boost. Some of that may have reflected positively on Republican candidates as well.
(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...
Yeah, I was responding as if a philosophical thing.
Moving on....we both got a big clue, Coop. Of course Freepers all have a clue. We just got to sit and wait for the rest of the country to get one.
Especially the drive-by media.
"Democrat lead in US House race drops to only two points"
Most people aren't shallow enough to vote the way their "union" or AARP tells them to. They generally have more than one issue. A terror attack in the states would almost cinch a Repub win in November. The Dems would scream, "You see, we still aren't safe!", but they have no alternative other than to cut and run or negotiate with throat cutters.
Thanks for the ping.
Trust Democrats?
Security?
National?
No way Jose
They're not rational
I'm not saying this routine is getting old... Well, yeah, I guess I am saying that...
Rove sent Lament this lovely bouquet of stinkweed.
?????????????????????
I am 'senior citizen, my daughter is a 'stay-at-home soccer mom' (her hubby, a U.S,Navy pilot, is a 'soccer dad', my daughters-in-law are stay at home moms....and we're all republicans.
Years ago, when ERA was making their last big push, I was our county Anti-ERA chairman (we beat them into the brush) -
The republicans are (mostly) all out at work between 8 am and 7pm.
That statement sounds like a "liberated" woman who beleives that if you are not working an outside job, you are a slacker???
Being a stay-at-home mom is one of the most difficult JOBS there is, and rewarding - and the commitment to raise ones own children, even if it means less material things, is commendable...they are, in my opinion, not slacking off because they don't traipse their little ones to day-care warehouses so they can keep up with the Jones and have 'status' in societys eyes. (There are many moms who have no choice, many more who just think they don't, and many who 'get it' and it has been my observation that those who would rather raise their own children full time, tend to be republican.)
I had the impression that stay-at-home moms trended towards republican women who value children more and who take being a full time parent as a serious commitment, not needing an outside job to feel validated...and also don't put monetary value over children and family???
Is there evidence otherwise?
The GOP can win the DeLay seat. There have been six successful write-in campaigns for federal office since WWII. So, it is not easy, but it is possible.
Bingo!
> The republicans are (mostly) all out at work between 8 am and 7pm.
Absolutely. There is no way they would ever be able to poll me.
They take their polls at shopping malls in college towns and get the results that they want, but they have no predictive value.
I'm not surprised...also the polls while showing that the public wanted incumbants to lose...didn't translate to their own district...where they usually supported their own rep. I don't see any sea of change shift in general.
Thanks for the ping. Of course, we all know polls are worthless!
But that's not the point. Gerrymandering is under control of state legislatures -- not contributors to viable House candidates.
One does not "refuse" to contribute money to an unwinnable seat. One sends one's scarce resources to winnable districts. If a winnable seat gets won by the opposition, the power of incumbancy could make it unwinnable in the future. This must not be allowed to happen.
This should be a good time to ride a little wave of momentum and shake loose some fresh bucks for Rightroots and other conservative PACs and candidates.
Assume it is and fight like your life depends on it...which of course, it does.
I love your Patton graphic.
Will Diana Irey beat the favored incumbent? I don't know. Ask me in mid November. Is it "winnable?" Yes.
I guess you missed the part where I said I wasn't a statistican and I couldn't prove my assertions, or did you get all red in the face that you stopped reading before you got there?
However, when it comes to democratic voting blocs, two of the biggest are the soccer mom (the "remodeled feminist")and the FDR democrat, who has both an emotional (i.e they rememeber the Great Depression and thought FDR a Messiah, and his socialist programs just the greatest thing ever)and a financial (i.e. they get more money from Social Security, and Medicare benefits than they ever paid into either system, or even have a legitimate right to claim wiht a straight face) attachment to the government teat.
Certainly a good number of males aged, say 25-50, (whom we might assume would be mostly republicans voters because of economic and war issues, for the purposes of this argument)are not at home to answer the phone for this kind of stuff, nor do they have the time (for the record, I'm a 40 year old man, a professional, who's breaking his a** working 70 hour weeks so that his parent's generation can rob him blind in their old age).
Quite frankly, other than the two groups we've discussed and the welfare queens, who else would you assume is at home to answer a load of fool poll questions during daylight hours?
Just because what I have described might not apply TO YOU doesn't mean it doesn't apply at all. And once again, when I made those assertions it was with the disclaimer that I was no expert. I expressed an OPINION. Feel free to disagree with my opinion, but please read it and get a handle on what I'm trying to say before you unload on me.
bump
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