Posted on 08/22/2006 5:55:48 AM PDT by teddyballgame
And just as I reported earlier today on the problems with the Gallup poll and other surveys showing a bias for Democrats, the Gallup poll suddenly reports a dramatic drop in the Democrat lead in the US House race to only two points.
In a poll taken over the weekend, the poll of registered voters shows that Democrats now lead only 47%-45% which is down from a nine percentage point lead earlier in August. This is well within the poll's margin of error (+-4%) so the race is essentially even. It is the best showing for Republicans in this poll since just before the 2004 November election when Democrats were ahead by four points among registered voters, but Republicans still won the popular U.S. vote and a 232-203 lead in House seats.
According to the poll, the sudden focus on the war on terror has greatly helped the GOP. The poll states that "President Bush's approval rating has topped 40% for the first time since February...Behind the movements: In the wake of the terror plot that British authorities say they broke up, Bush seems to have gotten a boost. Some of that may have reflected positively on Republican candidates as well.
(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...
All dim candidates who voted against keeping our country safe should have non stop commercials saying they don't want to keep the country safe.
Something I think is often overlooked in these polls is that the people who are usually at home to receive the phone call from the pollster (appear to be) tend to be democratic voting blocs (soccer moms, senior citizens, etc), and people who actually have time to sit there and yack with a pollster because they otherwise have nothing productive to do.
The republicans are (mostly) all out at work between 8 am and 7pm.
Therefore, the sample usually contains a greater number of democrats than republicans to begin with, assuming the sample was taken totally at random.
Having such a small gap, however, I would hazard to guess that the 2% deficit is actually a (at least) 4% surplus in favor of republicans, but does not play that way because the sample is heavily weighted towards democratic/ potential democratic voters. That is, there aren't enough republicans at home when the pollster calls, and if they are, they have better things to do than talk to a pollster.
I can't prove any of this. I'm not a statistician. I just feel it in my "gut". Feel free to flame me, if you wish.
The polls are only trying to make it close so more people will come out and vote.
If they say the RATS are so far ahead, there will be a bigger GOTV movement by the Republicans while the RATS will kick back as they always do and hope the ballot stuffing carries the day.
Then when the Republicans win big time they call it a suprise and a moral victory. Keeping it close forces the RATS to GOTV.
Frankly, as long as the economy and the WOT are the Republicans talking points, they will win easily.
It's corruption, plain and simple.
As I've said for months, we will GAIN at least one senate and one to three House seats. (I had predicted one-to-five, but I think the GOP will screw up DeLay's seat, and possibly Ney's in OH.)
Jason and you have it right. The fact that on average, Dem's have an IQ of 10 points less than Pubbies translates to a lower turnout for them. "Likely voters" ALWAYS shows a higher result for Republicans than "registered voters."
I just hope Rush is right and the Republicans take the golves off and start calling these Libs for what they are, un-Patriotic. We need to do what we did to Max Cleland when he voted against (I beleive) the Iraq War funding. Call all those out on the carpet who voted against the renewal or the Patriot Act, who was opposed to wire-tapping, who support the NY Times in their reporting of the SWIFT Program.
Republicans need to put this front and center in campaign ads. Show the American people exactly who they are voting to keep in Congress.
Democrats do great in polls when it's a "unnamed" Democrat, it's when they actually have to put the name on the ballot when they get into trouble.
It is practically impossible NOT to screw up DeLay's seat. Before the Texas courts are through with this, you will have to write in your candidate's name with a Sharpie Number 4 Fine Line Marker *only* for it to count. It is a disgrace.
And don't forget the "Voter fraud!" and "Disenfranchisement of minorities!" after the elections are over.
Yep. That's why I reduced my prediction. Same think might happen with Ney's seat.
Which will be more than offset by the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Argh, for a second there, I thought this was a poll on Irey vs. One Evil Red Mutha. The generic polls aren't worth a pile of crap, anyhow. We all know unnamed rodents always seem to beat unnamed Republicans in these polls.
Proud of it or not, gerrymandering works to the GOP's benefit. There are more utterly lopsided districts for the Dems than for the Republicanns, which means an enormous number of Dems votes are "wasted" on candidates that are sure to get 80%+ from their districts, giving the GOP an edge in the remaining, more contestable districts.
Between this "gerrymander effect" and the "registerd/likely voter effect," a 47-45% split in Gallup is, in fact, extremely good news for the GOP. ........and should be causing deep consternation among the Dems (who hopefully will continue to be focused on ever more creative ways to hate George Bush).
The 5th year anniversary of 9/11 is going to sink the anti-security Dems, IMHO. It should overshadow any Katrina bs.
US House List:
Michele Bachmann (MN-06) $ 1,899.00
Chuck Blasdel (OH-6) $ 973.00
Max Burns (GA-12) $ 1,142.00
John Gard (WI-08) $ 1,105.00
Diana Irey (PA-12) $ 7,440.94
Jeff Lamberti (IA-03) $ 1,200.00
David McSweeney (IL-08) $ 1,153.00
Ray Meier (NY-24) $ 1,683.00
Rick O'Donnell (CO-07) $ 1,078.00
Peter Roskam (IL-06) $ 1,128.00
Van Taylor (TX-17) $ 3,267.00
Scott Tipton (CO-3) $ 1,605.00
Chris Wakim (WV-01) $ 1,918.00
Mike Whalen (IA-01) $ 1,194.00
US Senate List
Thomas Kean (New Jersey) $ 1,685.00
Mark Kennedy (Minnesota) $ 4,295.00
Mike McGavick (Washington) $ 2,004.00
Michael Steele (Maryland) $ 2,995.06
Bush's numbers are trending up as well. Donna Brazil admitted yesterday that the Republican base is coming back to Bush. If they come back in full force in November, Dems are in deep doo-doo.
Look at the two-month trend in the table I linked to. It's significant.
"We'll be getting "blow by blow" retrospectives about Katrina for the next two weeks, at least. If it works, it'll be for the next two months."
If there are no hurricanes in the next two weeks I do not think there will be much interest in the Katrina re-hash. People will enjoy their Labor Day holiday this year.
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