As I've said for months, we will GAIN at least one senate and one to three House seats. (I had predicted one-to-five, but I think the GOP will screw up DeLay's seat, and possibly Ney's in OH.)
It is practically impossible NOT to screw up DeLay's seat. Before the Texas courts are through with this, you will have to write in your candidate's name with a Sharpie Number 4 Fine Line Marker *only* for it to count. It is a disgrace.
The Ney seat is apparently safe... our preferred candidate will make the ballot.
The distinction between RVs and LVs can be as high as 7% favorable swing toward the GOP, not just 2-3 points as indicated above.
If we are within 2 points on the generic ballot now, we will hold the House comfortably in November. As to "oversampling Republicans," this has never happened in polling history.