Something I think is often overlooked in these polls is that the people who are usually at home to receive the phone call from the pollster (appear to be) tend to be democratic voting blocs (soccer moms, senior citizens, etc), and people who actually have time to sit there and yack with a pollster because they otherwise have nothing productive to do.
The republicans are (mostly) all out at work between 8 am and 7pm.
Therefore, the sample usually contains a greater number of democrats than republicans to begin with, assuming the sample was taken totally at random.
Having such a small gap, however, I would hazard to guess that the 2% deficit is actually a (at least) 4% surplus in favor of republicans, but does not play that way because the sample is heavily weighted towards democratic/ potential democratic voters. That is, there aren't enough republicans at home when the pollster calls, and if they are, they have better things to do than talk to a pollster.
I can't prove any of this. I'm not a statistician. I just feel it in my "gut". Feel free to flame me, if you wish.
I just hope Rush is right and the Republicans take the golves off and start calling these Libs for what they are, un-Patriotic. We need to do what we did to Max Cleland when he voted against (I beleive) the Iraq War funding. Call all those out on the carpet who voted against the renewal or the Patriot Act, who was opposed to wire-tapping, who support the NY Times in their reporting of the SWIFT Program.
Republicans need to put this front and center in campaign ads. Show the American people exactly who they are voting to keep in Congress.
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I am 'senior citizen, my daughter is a 'stay-at-home soccer mom' (her hubby, a U.S,Navy pilot, is a 'soccer dad', my daughters-in-law are stay at home moms....and we're all republicans.
Years ago, when ERA was making their last big push, I was our county Anti-ERA chairman (we beat them into the brush) -
The republicans are (mostly) all out at work between 8 am and 7pm.
That statement sounds like a "liberated" woman who beleives that if you are not working an outside job, you are a slacker???
Being a stay-at-home mom is one of the most difficult JOBS there is, and rewarding - and the commitment to raise ones own children, even if it means less material things, is commendable...they are, in my opinion, not slacking off because they don't traipse their little ones to day-care warehouses so they can keep up with the Jones and have 'status' in societys eyes. (There are many moms who have no choice, many more who just think they don't, and many who 'get it' and it has been my observation that those who would rather raise their own children full time, tend to be republican.)
I had the impression that stay-at-home moms trended towards republican women who value children more and who take being a full time parent as a serious commitment, not needing an outside job to feel validated...and also don't put monetary value over children and family???
Is there evidence otherwise?
> The republicans are (mostly) all out at work between 8 am and 7pm.
Absolutely. There is no way they would ever be able to poll me.
They take their polls at shopping malls in college towns and get the results that they want, but they have no predictive value.
You have a great point. And let's not forget about the pheonom of folks just no longer having "land lines", only cell phones!! We have one land line in our home, but only for the purpose of our computer. Even with high-speed connection you need a land line, but we never answer it, everyone who calls that number has to be a tele-marketer.