[AntiGuv]

A lot of Republicans have made decisions on whether to run this year with the assumption that this will be a very Dem-favorable election cycle. So, even if you're absolutely certain it won't be you still need to factor in the widespread belief among others when assessing their decisions.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"A lot of Republicans have made decisions on whether to run this year with the assumption that this will be a very Dem-favorable election cycle."

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That is certainly true, but when Kolbe announced his retirement that was not necessarily the case, and it seems to me that running in an open-seat situation in 2006 would still be easier than running against an incumbent Giffords in 2008.