BREAKING on FOX [Israel believes] Missile that hit Haifa was fired by Iranian Guard

[RDTF]

more to follow

[Southack]

Wretchard at Belmont gets most things right, but what he has missed is the significance of what Iran *didn't* say.

Iran said that an attack on **SYRIA** would elicit an armed Iranian response.

Note that Iran said NOTHING about Israel's armed attacks on Hezbollah.

Likewise, Saudi Arabia just said that the current crisis is Hezbollah's fault.

In this manner Syria, The Arab League, Saudi Arabia, and Iran have hung Hezbollah out to dry.

...And the *only* way to understand why they are letting Israel finally smash Hezbollah is to go back to the documents that the U.S. seized from Zarqawi's safe houses over the past two years.

In one document, Zarqawi outlined his plan to use Syria against the U.S., then to turn on Assad and overthrow the syrian government.

In a more recent document, Zarqawi outlined his plan to trick Iran and the U.S. into going to war against each other.

...Which is what Al Qaeda and Hezbollah want. They want Iran in this fight because they are stronger with Iran fighting Israel/U.S. than without.

And to that end they are doing things such as launching missiles that would have an Iranian fingerprint. They are spreading the rumor that they are going to move the captured Israeli soldiers to Syria and Iran, etc.

These are not idle moves. There is a method to their madness; they want Iran and Syria to be drug into this war.

But it won't happen.

Bookmark this post. Check these facts over time. Syria won't get involved (past tough talk). Nor will Iran. Nor will Saudi Arabia.

Israel gets to smash Hezbollah. The Islamic Powers have given the Jews the green light.

[Allegra]

These are not idle moves. There is a method to their madness; they want Iran and Syria to be drug into this war.

But it won't happen.

Bookmark this post. Check these facts over time. Syria won't get involved (past tough talk). Nor will Iran. Nor will Saudi Arabia.

I hope you're right. I'm in a"should I stay or should I go" dilemma and am weighing my options while watching this situation closely.

I do not want to get stuck here during an all-out regional war.

[Southack]

The reason that you don't see Egypt massing its tanks and Jordan mobilizing its Army Reserves is the same...they are both pissed off at Al Qaeda bombing the hotels in Jordan and at Sharm al Sheikh.

Likewise, all of the regional players know as well as everyone else that the botched German prisoner swap of the PFLP terrorist in Europe for the captured German "tourist" in Iraq connected Al Qaeda to Hezbollah (because that's where the PFLP terrorist immediately fled when released - to Southern Lebanon's Hezbollah stronghold).

So Egypt and Jordan aren't going to go aid the people who bombed their big hotels; i.e. Hezbollah/Al Qaeda.

Nor do Iran and Syria appreciate the trickery that Al Qaeda/Hezbollah has been doing regarding dragging them into this war.

If Egypt was massing its armor and Jordan was mobilizing troops, it would be a different story.

But they aren't...and you can look to tangible actions (or inactions) like that to verify all that I have said above.

Is Egypt or Jordan mobilizing? Nope. Would Iran only fire 1 missile if they wanted to attack Israel? Nope.

Would Saudi Arabia blame Hezbollah if the kingdom was going to go to war with and for Hezbollah against Israel? Nope.

Would Iran just "forget" to warn Israel about attacking Hezbollah? No.

[Michael81Dus]

Yep, I have relatives in Lebanon (of course Christians), they say they´re supporting Israel on this - but the job must be finished. Hizbollah and the pro-Syrian powers must be thrown out of Lebanon. If that happens, then Lebanon may finally regain real independance.

[nopardons]

Great analysis!

[Kryptonite]

Bookmark this. The Israelis have been expecting exactly this sort of marginalization.

[Southack]

Precisely!

[Third Order]

That's an old missile... I think you mean the Trident D5

[AngelesCrestHighway]

lock and load...the Mideast is about to explode.

[AngelesCrestHighway]

But will these events put gay rights on the last page where they belong?

[livius]

Very good "capsule analysis," Scott! Well put.

[OldFriend]

Unfortunately, and dangerously, the left pretends that 9/11 never happened. Or worse, that it is simply something being used by President Bush to consolidate his power over the American people.

[SE Mom]

Been wondering what you're going to do...stay safe.

So many variables in play..very tough to see where this is going.

[Buckhead]

Interesting and perceptive. Going the other way, however, are many indications that Iran has been ardently preparing for and instigating this fight. They've infiltrated 60,000 young male "tourists" to southern Lebanon, and constantly promised that Israel would soon be destroyed, and are issuing statements urging Hamas and Hizbullah to keep fighting, and ordered Hizbullah to open the second front. There was a meeting between Ahmadinijad (sp), Assad and the famous terrorist Mugniyah, and I believe Mugniyah has been dispatched to southern Lebanon for this fight. Then there is the millenarian desire to provoke the return of the 12th Imam.

We shall see.

[JasonC]

Radar told them where it was fired from. Satellite and air recon photos told them who was at the firing location.

[commish]

Israel gets to smash Hezbollah. The Islamic Powers have given the Jews the green light.

Interesting theory South, and I truly hope you are right. A 2-3 week Isreali crushing of Hezbollah is much preferable to an all out regional war. I do know Lebanon would like nothing better than for Isreal to crush Hezbollah.

I think the biggest problem people had yesterday is that you didn't explain it like this -- to be brutally honest, you were a complete ass and came on here and attacked the poster for posting a news report they heard with thier own ears on Fox News. I personally thought that was bad form, which is why I piped up in thier defense a few times.

If you had made this post in the first 100 posts of this thread I think you would have seen a completely different reaction.

[Convert from ECUSA]

If this is true, Iran just stepped in it up to its elbows.

[Axeslinger]

I've said the same thing...Look at a map. Look where we've got troops...which country were we REALLY interested in? Kinda funny how there are now US troops on two of Iran's borders.

[Wolverine]

Report: Israel says Haifa MISSILE attack was staged … by Iran (SSM, 80km range)

Here’s the vid. It aired around 5:40 ET on FOX. Scroll to video, click start.

http://hotair.com/archives/top-picks/2006/07/13/report-israel-says-haifa-attack-was-staged-by-iran/

[bwteim]

Bump