[Southack]

Wretchard at Belmont gets most things right, but what he has missed is the significance of what Iran *didn't* say.

Iran said that an attack on **SYRIA** would elicit an armed Iranian response.

Note that Iran said NOTHING about Israel's armed attacks on Hezbollah.

Likewise, Saudi Arabia just said that the current crisis is Hezbollah's fault.

In this manner Syria, The Arab League, Saudi Arabia, and Iran have hung Hezbollah out to dry.

...And the *only* way to understand why they are letting Israel finally smash Hezbollah is to go back to the documents that the U.S. seized from Zarqawi's safe houses over the past two years.

In one document, Zarqawi outlined his plan to use Syria against the U.S., then to turn on Assad and overthrow the syrian government.

In a more recent document, Zarqawi outlined his plan to trick Iran and the U.S. into going to war against each other.

...Which is what Al Qaeda and Hezbollah want. They want Iran in this fight because they are stronger with Iran fighting Israel/U.S. than without.

And to that end they are doing things such as launching missiles that would have an Iranian fingerprint. They are spreading the rumor that they are going to move the captured Israeli soldiers to Syria and Iran, etc.

These are not idle moves. There is a method to their madness; they want Iran and Syria to be drug into this war.

But it won't happen.

Bookmark this post. Check these facts over time. Syria won't get involved (past tough talk). Nor will Iran. Nor will Saudi Arabia.

Israel gets to smash Hezbollah. The Islamic Powers have given the Jews the green light.

[Allegra]

These are not idle moves. There is a method to their madness; they want Iran and Syria to be drug into this war.

But it won't happen.

Bookmark this post. Check these facts over time. Syria won't get involved (past tough talk). Nor will Iran. Nor will Saudi Arabia.

I hope you're right. I'm in a"should I stay or should I go" dilemma and am weighing my options while watching this situation closely.

I do not want to get stuck here during an all-out regional war.

[Michael81Dus]

Yep, I have relatives in Lebanon (of course Christians), they say they´re supporting Israel on this - but the job must be finished. Hizbollah and the pro-Syrian powers must be thrown out of Lebanon. If that happens, then Lebanon may finally regain real independance.

[Kryptonite]

Bookmark this. The Israelis have been expecting exactly this sort of marginalization.

[Buckhead]

Interesting and perceptive. Going the other way, however, are many indications that Iran has been ardently preparing for and instigating this fight. They've infiltrated 60,000 young male "tourists" to southern Lebanon, and constantly promised that Israel would soon be destroyed, and are issuing statements urging Hamas and Hizbullah to keep fighting, and ordered Hizbullah to open the second front. There was a meeting between Ahmadinijad (sp), Assad and the famous terrorist Mugniyah, and I believe Mugniyah has been dispatched to southern Lebanon for this fight. Then there is the millenarian desire to provoke the return of the 12th Imam.

We shall see.

[commish]

Israel gets to smash Hezbollah. The Islamic Powers have given the Jews the green light.

Interesting theory South, and I truly hope you are right. A 2-3 week Isreali crushing of Hezbollah is much preferable to an all out regional war. I do know Lebanon would like nothing better than for Isreal to crush Hezbollah.

I think the biggest problem people had yesterday is that you didn't explain it like this -- to be brutally honest, you were a complete ass and came on here and attacked the poster for posting a news report they heard with thier own ears on Fox News. I personally thought that was bad form, which is why I piped up in thier defense a few times.

If you had made this post in the first 100 posts of this thread I think you would have seen a completely different reaction.

[dynoman]

Yes that is very interesting. A few things bother me though, one, what about Iranians in Lebanon? Would Iran really hang their own people there out to dry? Or are those rogue Iranians? Or are there no Iranians in Lebanon at all?

The other is that I find it a little hard to believe Syria and Iran could hate AQ/Hezbollah enough to let Israel steamroller them in spite of Z's "trickery" especially since both countries seem to have supported Z's efforts in Iraq and Hezbollah's against Israel. To cut off previous support to these groups is a major change of heart on the part of Iran and Syria, so major I don't trust it to be genuine. If this is the case this outcome is a big setback for them, and will probably be used against Israel/the West later. I can imagine Syria/Iran feel to good about, nor will forget about a setback like this at all.

[redgolum]

Very interesting analysis. Different angle from what I believe to be happening, but possible valid. I will remember that.

The next move in this game is Iran's and India's. If India moves against Pakistan, things will get more complicated in a hurry.

[Paul R.]

Interesting analysis. I would tend to agree with you as far as the governments of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan are concerned. Note that I discern between the govenments and the populace, esp. in Egypt and Saudi... Anyway, I hope you are right, but am not so sure about Syria and Iran -- are they doing anything to undercut Hezbollah? Quietly NOT supplying arms, for example? If Hezbollah's (or Hamas') leaders can hole up in Syria or Iran, and if they can still get arms, it's not much of a "smash" in the long run.

Also interesting & sad that these governments would believe what's in the U.S. recovered Zarqawi documents more than the left in the U.S. does...

[Marine_Uncle]

" Israel gets to smash Hezbollah. The Islamic Powers have given the Jews the green light."
Very good analysis. And I go along with all you wrote. Iran is to far away to have any effect on Israel other then providing what they have been doing, and Syria realizes it would get mannered so bad this time around the government would most likely collapse. And Iran certainly is not going to really come to the aid of Syria and vice versa with the US being entrenched in Iraq.

[Ancesthntr]

What you've completely discounted in your post #1041 is that the Iranian leader has been among the most vociferous of all Moslems. He's called for the destruction of Israel - not once, not years ago, but many times and very recently (like this past week). The guy seems to WANT a war, to bring their 12th Imam...and whether he's certifiable or not is rather immaterial, because he controls Iran.

The whole thread started with a claim that Iranian soldiers had fired some of the rockets that hit Israel. I realize that it may turn out not to be the case (fog of war and all that), but it is certainly NOT inconceivable that this would be the case...as you've claimed. You should have more of an open mind - it certainly IS possible, and the Israelis seem to believe it, so even if a stupid thing on Iran's part, you should at least admit the possibility of it being true.