Troops are fingers in a dike around Iraq

Philadelphia Inquirer ^ | 6/18/06 | Trudy Rubin

[RadicalSon2]

And now for a reality check on the congressional debate about leaving Iraq.

Neither Democrats nor Republicans have a grip.

Republicans are right to nix the idea that U.S. troops should withdraw in six months. But the Bush administration has made such a hash in Iraq that U.S. troops have little chance of creating the "secure and united Iraq" that Republicans call for.

Bad U.S. policy and worse execution have left Americans with two unpleasant choices: Leave Iraq now and ensure that country's collapse, with awful consequences for them, us, and the entire Middle East; or stay on with no guarantee that perseverance will stabilize the country.

No wonder Democrats are frustrated; in such circumstances, it's hard for the most cogent critic to fashion a better policy. The Democrats know the Bush administration created a beachhead for Islamist terrorists in Iraq. They know the administration refrained from taking out Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2003, when he was a small fry in Iraqi Kurdistan; Kurdish intelligence officers urged U.S. officials in vain to bomb him. They know all this - even as Karl Rove claims that, if Democrats had had their way, Zarqawi would never have been killed.

No wonder many Democrats rage at administration hypocrisy. However, a policy based on anger won't work.

To understand the hard choices ahead, think of the U.S. troop presence as fingers in a crumbling dike surrounding Iraq. Pull them out now, and the dike will collapse; a New Orleans-level flood will inundate the region and send huge waves in our direction.

Keep the fingers in, and the dike will eventually collapse anyway unless it is shored up in the meantime. Everything depends on whether the new Iraqi government (and a more realistic White House) can pile on enough concrete slabs before the dike gives way.

In my latest trip to Iraq earlier this month, elected Iraqi political leaders from all communities - Shiite, Kurd and Sunni - told me U.S. troops should not be withdrawn now. Having dismantled all the institutions that held Iraq together, the United States has a moral obligation to help the new Iraqi government rebuild, according to these leaders - especially since U.S. officials have failed so badly, so far, in reconstruction efforts.

Iraqi leaders also say the violence would not die down if Americans left now. Instead, it would grow much, much worse.

Some Sunni insurgents who are fighting purely against U.S. occupation might return home. But the insurgent core of Baathists and Islamists are engaged in a struggle for power against the new majority of Shiites and Kurds. They are also out to destroy moderate Sunnis who are willing to join the new Iraqi system. That fight would go on.

Indeed, if U.S. troops leave too soon, Iraq could become a regional battlefield, with Iran supporting Iraqi Shiites, and Sunni Arab states giving aid to Iraqi Sunni fighters. Such a battle could rage indecisively for years as Sunni areas became a haven for terrorist training, creating an Islamist threat to the entire region.

But will the situation get better if the Americans maintain a large presence for a couple of years?

This depends on whether the new Iraqi government can perform. No one knows if its Shiite and Sunni leaders can reconcile and, together, undercut the core insurgents. U.S. officials would have to mediate. They would have to pony up more economic aid for Iraq from U.S. allies, including Arab countries (our aid funds, badly used, are running out). The White House would also have to promote a regional accord that pressed Iraq's neighbors to stop meddling in Iraqi affairs. All a very tall order.

But the costs of failure are so high that this new government must be given a chance over the next year. U.S. troops will be drawing down in 2007 because our military is overextended. By 2007 Iraqi officials will be asking for a status-of-forces agreement that defines where and how remaining troops will be used. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki says Iraq should take control of its security in 18 months.

In the meantime, Democrats should swallow their anger (and stop booing Sen. Hilary Rodham Clinton for opposing a timetable). Republicans should swallow their hubris; there are no guarantees that "staying the course" will produce the "victory" of their dreams. Everything depends on whether the Iraqi dike can be shored up before the floodwaters overwhelm Baghdad - and then head toward us.

[wildcatf4f3]

hey he got new Orleans in the metaphor....what great slop

[wildcatf4f3]

"having dismantled the institutions that helsd Iraq together"

The muderous baathist dictatorship

[wildcatf4f3]

I never listen to military analysts named "Trudy"

[Mo1]

Have ya ever noticed that the Left think everyone is a failure except them?

[Cricklewood]

who is this abomination trying to sound intelligible when all she can muster are talking points, recycled as they are.............

[ChadGore]

What's the best kept secret in Iraq?

The number of Americans killed by the Iraq Army in 2006 is zero.

The number of Americans killed by the Iraq Army in 2005 is zero.

The number of Americans killed by the Iraq Army in 2004 is zero.

The victory is 3 years old.

[Allegra]

Republicans are right to nix the idea that U.S. troops should withdraw in six months. But the Bush administration has made such a hash in Iraq that U.S. troops have little chance of creating the "secure and united Iraq" that Republicans call for.

The media and its wishful thinking strike again.

[rvoitier]

Brought to you by the Committee to elect Hillary Clinton.

[Watery Tart]

Having dismantled all the institutions that held Iraq together, the United States has a moral obligation...

Bring back the Rape Rooms® of the Klinton Administration! Oh, I mean the Rape Rooms® of the Saddam Administration! Wait a minute, bring back the Rape Rooms® of both Administrations!

[Fresh Wind]

I'm sorry, but what does this whiney little columnist know about the world?

Why, she reads the New York Times, of course.

[Darkwolf377]

Ah, I stand corrected.

[Allegra]

Just FYI...

Baghdad is restless again today. We've been hearing firefights all morning and we just heard an explosion in the last hour. We went up a few floors to look and from the smoke, it looks like the explosion was in or near Sadr City.

The terrorists are trying to make a stand against the coalition and Iraqi forces. What they need to figure out is that we are going to take Baghdad back. If they keep resisiting, they're just going to get wasted.

This is actually good in the long run...the scum are being drawn out so that they can face their fate.

[MinuteGal]

"I've been contemplating cancelling my subscription because of their (the Philadelphia Enquirer) overwhelming and naked left-wing bias."

"Anyway, all that aside, I have to respect the Inqy for publishing the Danish cartoons. So I've decided to keep my subscription."

The perfect encapsulation of why the deadly traitors in the MSM continue to draw pay checks.

Leni

[patj]

Now why would Tommy Franks know more about it than Trudy Rubin? She was there once, she should know. ;)

[don-o]

Having dismantled all the institutions that held Iraq together,

Rape rooms and mass graves are institutions?

[tomnbeverly]

Hey Trudy.... Just shut up... You don't have a clue... Do these news(?)papers even have editors anymore?

[jmaroneps37]

Will somebody tell this horse's ash that we have been in Germany and Japan for over 60 years, Korea for over 50 years and we are still on Bosnia ( clinochhio's Christmas just never seems to get here ).
This is such typical leftist "move the goal post" crap.

[TexKat]

Baghdad is restless again today. We've been hearing firefights all morning and we just heard an explosion in the last hour. We went up a few floors to look and from the smoke, it looks like the explosion was in or near Sadr City.

A US helicopter fires thermal balloons as it hovers over black smoke billowing from the site where a bomb exploded in Baghdad. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has unveiled to MPs a long-awaited national reconciliation plan aimed at quelling insurgent attacks and mounting sectarian violence.(AFP/Marwan Naamani)

Plumes of black smoke are seen beyond the minarets over the grave of ancient Sunni cleric Omar al-Sahrawardi, left, and the mosque also bearing his name, right, at the Sheikh Omar cemetary, after a bomb left in a plastic bag exploded in one of Baghdad's main markets, killing six and injuring 17 civilians, in the al-Shurja souk in Baghdad, Iraq Sunday, June 25, 2006. (AP Photo/Karim Kadim)

A market-seller, right, runs to remove merchandise as Iraqi firefighters try to extinguish fires which broke out, after a bomb left in a plastic bag exploded in one of Baghdad's main markets, killing six and injuring 17 civilians, in the al-Shurja souk in Baghdad, Iraq, Sunday, June 25, 2006. (AP Photo/Khalid Mohammed)

The wreckage of a vehicle is towed after a suicide bomb attack targeting an Iraqi military checkpoint, which wounded two soldiers, near a Sunni mosque in Baghdad, June 25, 2006. REUTERS/Thaier al-Sudani (IRAQ)

[woofie]

Bad U.S. policy and worse execution have left Americans with two unpleasant choices

The left says this kind of stuff over and over ...I dont see it ....I want them to point out specifically what they mean by this...what bad policy? what bad execution?