Posted on 06/24/2006 11:03:12 PM PDT by RadicalSon2
And now for a reality check on the congressional debate about leaving Iraq.
Neither Democrats nor Republicans have a grip.
Republicans are right to nix the idea that U.S. troops should withdraw in six months. But the Bush administration has made such a hash in Iraq that U.S. troops have little chance of creating the "secure and united Iraq" that Republicans call for.
Bad U.S. policy and worse execution have left Americans with two unpleasant choices: Leave Iraq now and ensure that country's collapse, with awful consequences for them, us, and the entire Middle East; or stay on with no guarantee that perseverance will stabilize the country.
No wonder Democrats are frustrated; in such circumstances, it's hard for the most cogent critic to fashion a better policy. The Democrats know the Bush administration created a beachhead for Islamist terrorists in Iraq. They know the administration refrained from taking out Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2003, when he was a small fry in Iraqi Kurdistan; Kurdish intelligence officers urged U.S. officials in vain to bomb him. They know all this - even as Karl Rove claims that, if Democrats had had their way, Zarqawi would never have been killed.
No wonder many Democrats rage at administration hypocrisy. However, a policy based on anger won't work.
To understand the hard choices ahead, think of the U.S. troop presence as fingers in a crumbling dike surrounding Iraq. Pull them out now, and the dike will collapse; a New Orleans-level flood will inundate the region and send huge waves in our direction.
Keep the fingers in, and the dike will eventually collapse anyway unless it is shored up in the meantime. Everything depends on whether the new Iraqi government (and a more realistic White House) can pile on enough concrete slabs before the dike gives way.
In my latest trip to Iraq earlier this month, elected Iraqi political leaders from all communities - Shiite, Kurd and Sunni - told me U.S. troops should not be withdrawn now. Having dismantled all the institutions that held Iraq together, the United States has a moral obligation to help the new Iraqi government rebuild, according to these leaders - especially since U.S. officials have failed so badly, so far, in reconstruction efforts.
Iraqi leaders also say the violence would not die down if Americans left now. Instead, it would grow much, much worse.
Some Sunni insurgents who are fighting purely against U.S. occupation might return home. But the insurgent core of Baathists and Islamists are engaged in a struggle for power against the new majority of Shiites and Kurds. They are also out to destroy moderate Sunnis who are willing to join the new Iraqi system. That fight would go on.
Indeed, if U.S. troops leave too soon, Iraq could become a regional battlefield, with Iran supporting Iraqi Shiites, and Sunni Arab states giving aid to Iraqi Sunni fighters. Such a battle could rage indecisively for years as Sunni areas became a haven for terrorist training, creating an Islamist threat to the entire region.
But will the situation get better if the Americans maintain a large presence for a couple of years?
This depends on whether the new Iraqi government can perform. No one knows if its Shiite and Sunni leaders can reconcile and, together, undercut the core insurgents. U.S. officials would have to mediate. They would have to pony up more economic aid for Iraq from U.S. allies, including Arab countries (our aid funds, badly used, are running out). The White House would also have to promote a regional accord that pressed Iraq's neighbors to stop meddling in Iraqi affairs. All a very tall order.
But the costs of failure are so high that this new government must be given a chance over the next year. U.S. troops will be drawing down in 2007 because our military is overextended. By 2007 Iraqi officials will be asking for a status-of-forces agreement that defines where and how remaining troops will be used. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki says Iraq should take control of its security in 18 months.
In the meantime, Democrats should swallow their anger (and stop booing Sen. Hilary Rodham Clinton for opposing a timetable). Republicans should swallow their hubris; there are no guarantees that "staying the course" will produce the "victory" of their dreams. Everything depends on whether the Iraqi dike can be shored up before the floodwaters overwhelm Baghdad - and then head toward us.
And Trudy Rubin knows this. . . how? She has a real sky-is-falling mentality - all alarmism and now answers.
Oops. "NO" answers, not "now" answers. Up too late.
Lets put Trudy in charge. Given her mastery of the difficult task of putting consonants and vowels together, I am sure General Trudy could, in a matter of weeks, have the Baathists and Al Qaedites acting like they are at cotillion.
We see hundreds of these columns a week on FR, and I no longer get angry, I just shake my head. Cynisim is ALWAYS the safest route a columnist can take when she is going to comment on something she knows NOTHING about other than what she's read in The Nation or heard about on Air America.
This woman shows zero--ZERO--understanding of the subject about which she writes. Simply put--Lady, how dare you write about something you know nothing about?
This is precisely what I mean--WHICH elected leaders? WHO did you talk to, and how do you know whether they were telling you the truth, or what their motives are?
I could go to Washington tomorrow and speak to my congress critters, and then write the following: "In my last trip to Washington, elected US political leaders told me..." and it would mean NOTHING--absolutely nothing--without proper context; names, background, records of votes, etc.
Anyone who read my "account" would simply tote up what they know about the politicians I mention and laugh off what I wrote-- "You BOUGHT that BS? Don't you know he has union buddies, and his uncle is in the concrete business.." or whatever.
Instead, this DOPE talks about Iraqi "elected officials"--if she said that about DC, we'd just mock her--and she spouts off like she actually knows something secret, something special, something no one else knows. We're supposed to trust her judgment about "making a hash of Iraq" because, well, she went there.
I once spent a month in Atlanta--how many of you would think I could tell you ANYTHING about how the city runs based on that?
This kind of journalism is pure, unadulterated BS, cynical and without meaning.
I remember Alan Colmes trying to point this out to Tommy Franks on an episode of Hannity and Colmes...the reaction was one of the best laughs I've ever had: I believe it went like this:
"Well, I can tell you right now, Alan, that is flat-on-its-face absurd."
Colmes was whining: "So the whole thing is a lie, then?"
"Yes, it is."
Don't bother this blustery author with facts,she'll have none of it as she borrows liberally from current events,past history, current climate stories and Lord knows what else to contrive a make believe delimna,argue it and dispose of it as so much bother and not much else save for more evidence that George Bush is the worst President in recorded history.
If she had attended journalism courses in college she might have recieved an "incomplete" grade with a note that a passing "D" might be possible with a lot of rework.
As it is, none of whats been written here has any bearing on any thing except to show how totally out of touch lefties are from reality at this phase of their disengagement from it..
Trudy Rubin writes the Worldview column for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Her column usually appears on Wednesdays and Sundays. She can be reached at trubin@phillynews.com.
Her new book, “Willful Blindness, The Bush Administration and Iraq,” describes how the administration got us into Iraq and the prospects for getting out. This book of Rubin’s column from July 2002 - June 2004 draws on her extensive experience in the Middle East, four lengthy trips to Iraq and her close contacts with Iraqi officials, clerics and ordinary people.
In Willful Blindness, Trudy Rubin simplifies a complex story and lays out the steps necessary to stabilize Iraq. Visit www.trudyrubin.com for the most current listings of upcoming media and speaking appearances by Trudy and her thoughts on the Iraq situation.
http://www.buzzmachine.com/index.php/2006/02/08/heres-journalistic-principle/feed/
Poor Trudy ... a Conehead to the very end
I believe that too, Trudy, but if I had the ability to write a twice weekly column for a major newspaper, I think I'd feel the need to back it up with some concrete evidence.
Beyond that, this is where you loose any credibility with me:
In the meantime, Democrats should swallow their anger (and stop booing Sen. Hilary Rodham Clinton for opposing a timetable).
It's obvious you want Hillary to prevail for no other reason than you want Hillary to prevail.
lose
When a writer goes for the "stick your finger into something" analogy, I get soft.
Yet, I must still ask myself why, why we chose this region in particular to instill democracy? Why not try the instilling process on some isolated island first, succeed, and then implement what was learned on a larger scale?
Also, will their new constitution come with a built-in Bill of Rights? You know, like women having the right to wear burkhas. Like men having the right to throw rocks at someone's head while they stand buried up to the neck in sand? Camel democracy.
We didn't choose the Islamic countries, they chose us. We will be engaged in that and all other regions of the world from now on. Rome isn't Rome any more.
The Iraqi government will be pretty good by middle eastern standards, but pretty crummy by our standards, and we will have connections and levers of power all through it.
The security situation is not as bad as the Drive-By Media wants us to believe. Most of the country is secure. The Iraqi militia and police are growing in numbers and in ability. A a large percentage of the security in the country is under their control, with U.S, embeds and backup, but we will never pull all of our troops out. With our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, we have Iran sandwiched.
Our military is doing a magnificent job and having steady success, but you would never know that by listening to the Drive-By Media. They hate President Bush, they hate the military, they hate the U.S.A., and they are praying to their pagan gods that we leave in defeat. We won't.
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