Posted on 03/21/2006 7:12:49 AM PST by george76
"Weather Disaster of Historic Proportions" Could Strike as Early as This Year...
The northeast U.S. coast could be the target of a major hurricane, perhaps as early as this season, according to research announced today by the AccuWeather... Hurricane Center.
"The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," said Joe Bastardi, Chief Forecaster...
"The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane...not a question of if but when." ...
"If you examine past weather cycles that have occurred in the Atlantic, you will see patterns of storms," added Ken Reeves, Expert Senior Meteorologist and Director of Forecasting Operations ...
The current cycle and above-normal water temperatures are reminiscent of the pattern that eventually produced the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence, R.I...
The 1938 hurricane was the strongest tropical system to strike the northeastern U.S. in recorded history, with maximum gusts of 186 mph, a 15- to 20-foot storm surge and 25- to 50-foot waves that left much of Providence under 10-15 feet of water.
Forecasters at AccuWeather.com say that patterns are similar to those of the 1930s, 40s and 50s when storms such as the 1938 hurricane, the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricanes and the Trio of 1954--Carol, Edna and Hazel--battered the coast from the Carolinas to New England.
Because a hurricane of this magnitude has not made landfall in the northeastern U.S. in nearly 60 years, few Americans are even aware that hurricanes can and do directly impact this part of the country...
But the storm that struck Providence on Sept. 21, 1938, traveled northward along the Gulf Stream and first made landfall in Westhampton, Long Island before ripping a path across the island and continuing north to Rhode Island.
That storm is still regarded as the greatest weather disaster in Long Island history.
(Excerpt) Read more at a.accuweather.com ...
HIT San Francisco, not HIS..........sorry
I am a general contractor here in the Keys, but I have steered away from hurricane work. The insurance companies won't pay the going rate. In fact it's now almost five months since Wilma and folks are still waiting for their insurance checks. It's a sorry state of affairs.
Usually not as damaging. Some low lying areas in the greater Boston area see damage from storm surge. Hurricanes hitting southern New England in the fall often catch boating communities unprepared, so yachtsmen are always concerned ... property owners less so. When the 'big one' hits it will wipe out any low lying areas in its path ... guaranteed.
Dang, and I just paid my flood insurance premium. If I'd known we were in for a disaster of Federal propotions, I might have held out for the shower of blank checks and debit cards.
Here's what Bastardi had to say in early August of LAST YEAR.
Private forecaster eyes Carolinas
However, Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with private forecasting company AccuWeather, predicted most of the remaining storms this year will take a more easterly path than the June and July storms that entered the Gulf of Mexico.
"The most action will be from Aug. 15 to Oct. 15 along the Eastern Seaboard. I'm targeting the Carolinas for the worst," Bastardi said. "Also, there will be (landfalls) in New England and the Florida coast."
Of course, precisely ONE storm hit the entire east coast...Ophelia in the Carolinas...no New England hits, and of course the "action" Aug. 15 to Oct. 15 2005 remained in the Gulf as we know.
And ironically, for Ophelia, Busturdi and AccuBlunder forecast OPHELIA to cross Florida and enter the Gulf of Mexico so they could hype the chance of another New Orleans hit, so they managed to blow the one storm that DID go up the East Coast a bit.
It's entirely possible there's a big East Coast/New England Hurricane hit this year. That's possible every year. And Busturdi will forecast it EVERY year till it happens. And then the morons that generally comprise Busturdi fans will praise him to the heavens.
Basically the only admirable quality of Busturdi, who is otherwise a complete embarassment to his profession, is a refusal to link specific storms to global warming.
"Not if, but when" applies also to the overdue killer 9+ earthquake we're going to have here in Seattle, not to mention the (overdue?) eruption of Mt. Rainier which, when it goes, will ta
The whole term "overdue" is typically very badly misused in all disaster contexts.
It has NO application whatsoever to hurricanes; the failure of a given area to be hit by a storm doesn't increase the likelyhood of that area to be hit in the next year.
It has SOME seismic or volcanic application, but again it's often overused. It's invalid to proclaim the Cascadia megathrust "overdue." More accurate to say "possibly due." There have been MANY gaps between quakes on it FAR longer than 300 years. Some of the gaps are about 300 years long, however.
And Rainier doesn't even have to erupt at all to cause a catastrophe. It could simply spontaneously collapse causing a lahar wiping out thousands of homes without any eruption at all.
Until a freaking hurricane is IN the Atlantic and clearly heading in that general direction, I wouldn't put any stock in this story. Fear mongering among the global warming, junk-science crowd.
Last year New Orleans...this year Providence.
I'm just sayin'...
;-)
So is this the part where Boston and New York are going underwater because Kerry didn't win?
you say that like itsuhbadthing...
Joe was on FOX yesterday talking about this. Interesting.
I couldn't understand why anyone would complain about it. :)
Werks for me! We're moving to the MS Gulf Coast!! ;o)
Eventually you'll be right, so keep on predicting that.
Look at the graphic in #2. All of them cruise over or close to the Banks on their way north.
There was a tv show about this last year. The water came up so fast, that one family, whose house was out on a beach, couldn't make it to safety, so they got up into the attic to escape the rising waters. During the storm, their house came off it's foundation and started floating. The woman being interviewed remembers her mother praying in Thanksgiving because she heard a bouy bell and realized that they were floating across the bay, toward the mainland, and NOT out to sea. The house ended up on the shore a couple of hours later.
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