Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita continues to move toward landfall along the northwest Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations continue across Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. Lake Charles LA is providing evacuations by bus for residents who have no transportation.

Traffic gridlock in the greater Houston area was compounded by gasoline stations without fuel, long lines at those stations still carrying fuel, and record breaking temperatures on the first day of autumn.

Offshore drilling platforms and rigs, as well as oil refineries, petrochemical and natural gas plants are in the path of the storm. Wave heights recorded by buoy have exceeded 38 feet. The refineries threatened by Hurricane Rita are on higher ground than those affected by flooding from Katrina. As a result, speculation abounds regarding future prices for winter heating fuel and gasoline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KPLC-TV Lake Charles KPLC Streaming
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[mother22wife21]

Ping to the ride.

[Dane]

Below is a good link to find out the distances between cites on the TX/LA Gulf coasts.

Link

[NautiNurse]

That table doesn't predict landfall. It predicts that the storm will pass within 65nm of a point within a certain time. It is driven by geographic location of the storm at the point in time when the table was generated.

[cgk]

Oh wonderful. Here I was hoping a bunch of Texans were going to beat down some jerk who was trying to charge $10 a gallon.

[Ditto]

Would appreciate any info you have on the Bay Oaks area of south Houston. A friend just called and said they gave up on getting north (been in traffic on I45 since 4:30 am) and have turned around and headed back home. I don't know Houston real well, but memory serves that Bay Oaks is close to the bay.

Will it be prone to high storm surge?

[abb]

Well now Bastardi is selling Galveston again based on westward jog of past few hours...

[nhoward14]

No no no.... the airborne Volvo. Ron White said so.

[NautiNurse]

That is a great table. Needed it a few times this morning.

[LikeLight]

These hurricanes have opened my mind to grasping the full depravity of man.

[RoseofTexas]

"It's weakened to a C4 already? I keep hearing it will hit as a 4; but I thought it was a 5 and still strengthening last night?"

Let's no fool ourselves! Only God knows what this gal is about to do! I'm praying God will subside the Witch!!

[Ichneumon]

[Gulf is not landfall. Those are points expected to be 65NM from eye.]

I understand but if it the eye passes through those points it's gonna hit Western Louisiana. My point is Galveston and Houston are gonna be OK.

No, you're still reading it wrong. Those proabilities say that there's a chance of a wobble that'll take it close enough to the LA coast as it cruises WNW that there's 15% odds it'll pass within 65NM of New Orleans, etc., but that's NOT saying that it'll make landfall there. And the reason the Texas probabilities look low compared to the offshore LA probabilities is that it's pretty much CERTAIN to pass through certain sections of the Gulf, because it's almost on top of those locations already, while there's more of a "spread" in the places it might end up 24 and 48 hours from now, so their individual probabilities are lower, even though their combined probability (i.e. the probability that it'll hit *somewhere* on the Texas coast) is almost 100%.

[cgk]

How much does N.O. have to worry about the upper Mississippi getting any extra volume from Rita when she moves up? Any?

[LikeLight]

There's no gas there, that's the problem.

[Txsleuth]

Hi gang----

I have been busy topping off all of our cars today...just to drive the locals in the DFW area crazy!!!! LOL...just kidding!

The local radio shows have been going bonkers about the shortage of gasoline and the long lines at the stations.

I don't know if there actually is a shortage or if this is p

anic buying, but I will tell ya'll what IS panic buying.

I went to the grocery store and the first three people I saw, had 4-5 cases of bottle water in their baskets...and the water aisle was empty.

I highly doubt that they bought it to DONATE to the victims in Galveston or wherever Rita lands...lol

Thread 5, huh? How many did we end up with for Katrina?

[Dog Gone]

All of the most likely landfall points are in Louisiana.

Um, that's the coming within 65 nautical miles of those points, not landfall, and it's currently south of Lousiana, as it approaches shore it will defintely get closer to Louisiana, thus fulfilling your prophecy, sort of, but not really.

[ARealMothersSonForever]

Thank you for keeping this running. The roads are a little chaotic. Definate improvement over the course of the day.

[blam]

I went out around 4:00pm today and put 30 gallons of gas ($2.60 gal) into my 55 gallon Y2K gas tank and there was a guy there saying he was on his way to Houston to pick up his elderly mother. I asked him if he was kidding, he said no. He hasn't the slightest idea what is going on in and around Houston...it's an 8 hour drive to Houston even under good conditions.

[ekwd]

My cousin lives just north of 290-Jones Rd. intersection in NW Houston. Would you happen to know if that area is flood prone?

[Carolinamom]

If your son loses power, Guenevere, he'll have to pretend those Ramein noodles are potato chips. Surely, he got food that doesn't necessarily require cooking or heating.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

I was kind of thinking about waiting until AFTER the storm - doubt it will be that easy then....;^)