It looks like they forecast a strong Cat 4 at landfall. As we've seen with this storm, Rita has always been about 10 mph above the blue-line. We shall see. Also the table for wind speed forecast is 'N/A' for 36 hours. Odd.
| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
|
Locked on 09/21/2005 4:38:48 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:
Locked - New Thread http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1488924/posts |
Posted on 09/21/2005 1:36:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.
Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.
Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA
Additional Resources:
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
That is the earthquake scale....
Whoops, too late -- probably already exceeded authorized bandwidth
Almost all storms exhibit a trochoidal (like a sine wave) wobble, sometimes with a quite long period (each wobble lasting 6-12 hours).
One problem with EasternUSWx is it's heavily populated by Northeastern Winter Snow weenies with fairly limited knowledge of the tropics.
That said, the beginnings of turns are indistinguishable from wobbles.
2. Did I hear the mayor say she and a skeleton staff were staying...ion the top floor of some building that is 37 feet above sea level..but they are expecting a 30ft+ storm surge? Does that make any sense?
1. The building at the end of the pier is probably the Balinese Room, famed gambling hall of the 1940s and 50s - many big names used to perform there (eg Frank Sinatra). As a side note, the pier out to the Balinese Room is so long because they would post someone as a lookout on land, and as soon as policemen started down the pier to investigate rowdiness, a signal was given and the gambling tables, one-armed bandits, etc. were hidden and the place became a nice, presentable dance hall within seconds (http://www.texasexplorer.net/BalineseRoom.htm).
2. If I understood correctly, the city officials will be staying at the San Luis Resort on Seawall Blvd (http://www.sanluisresort.com/). I can't imagine that it would be safe, with the entire front being glass.
We lived in Galveston in 2003-2004. It's really a quirky little island with it's own personality. We love that place.
The 908 mb pressure was from a dropsonde in the eye. The 914 mb pressure was extrapolated at a later time, which I guess is why NHC is using that number in their advisory.
Johnson Space Center is already closed. Heard they transferred control of the International Space Center to the Russians.
ComtemptofCourt has that answer in #1989 - "NHC uses a 6 hr mean motion. It is on or damn near the NHC forecasted track"
That one-hour shift toward the WNW may well be more of a wobble than anything else.
Very last satellite image looks a little more westward again, so maybe the northward movement was just a jog after all - but still bears close watching.
Her rants'll just have to get longer and longer as her list grows. I'm a little confused though : I thought the left was outraged with President Bush for not sending troops in before Blanco gave the OK because it would violate posse comatatis, but now they're outraged that NO is occupied by troops they wanted there and say should have been there sooner?
The brain of NASA is at the Johnson Space Center. And it's on the deadly northeast quadrant near Clear Lake.
Excellent info there......THANKS!
The traffic jam lanes are people evacuating from the coast. It looks like Galveston area from memory. The thin line of vehicles are those racing out to the coast to secure things before bugging out.
Well, from the vortex report you linked to, the 110 kts surface winds are something on the order of .8 of the 153 flight level winds, according to my rudimentary math skills.
I note that, during Andrew, one of the few surface installations to provide actual wind measurements after the opening moments of the strike, the anemometer on Fowey Rocks light, which is a fixed lighthouse, 133 feet tall, 4-5 miles offshore on the reef and edge of the Gulf Stream, stopped transmitting windspeed after apparently having its equipment damaged by wind alone (possibly augmented by flying spray?). But I definitely agree that most of the land based anemometers probably get hit by flying debris.
The 80 kt max at Dry Tortugas sounds right to me, according to what I'v heard of damage in the Keys.
I understand that the extreme winds exist in the eyewall, and rapidly diminish outward from there, keeping in mind of course that they are still very dangerous for many miles out. But eminently more survivable if one takes precautions. Such as occupying a strong structure on high ground. I feel fairly good about my chances if I can just avoid being in that eyewall. I know there are weird pockets and things moving around, though.
Since you've been taking something of a devil's advocate position on Katrina, I'm curious as to your interest in hurricanes? My own interest comes from years on the water, some of them professional, which require some knowledge of weather; also from having ridden out several hurricanes, including the north eyewall of Andrew in south Dade. And, IMO, an awareness of hurricanes is a prerequisite of living in places like Miami anyway.
However, I am not a scientist or anything close, nor nearly as knowledgable as some of the posters on these threads.
It looks like they forecast a strong Cat 4 at landfall. As we've seen with this storm, Rita has always been about 10 mph above the blue-line. We shall see. Also the table for wind speed forecast is 'N/A' for 36 hours. Odd.
That site (as well as storm2k) is also populated by high school kids who fancy themselves to be mets (floydbuster is one glaring example). You need to really know the credentials of the posters on those sites before and take what is posted in context.
that's what I thought, but Bastardi was explaining the same thing yesterday.
I'm putting the deep water kit back on my Jeep tonight, then....
Post 2039 was meant for you, not me.
This is what New Orleans fears most!
Indeed, Grand Isle, Louisiana (the eastern-most part of the Tropical Storm Watch) is due south of New Orleans.
In any case, where did they find the drivers?
I'm surmising not from the graveyards mary landrieu finds her workers from(paraphrased quote from Sen. landrieu "you can't get them to work on a sunny day").
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.