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Posted on 09/20/2005 6:16:38 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
My other house is in Sugar Land. I'm going to ride it out there.
So what are your views on evacuating Galveston? Where are they taking these people? What liability are they incurring by doing so?
So the upper right quadrant of Rita will pass over Key West, and the whole Keys? Is that right?
That is too close to the action for me! Stay safe.
I think he is a combo of jerk and oblivious, depending on the situation. It's not like it was going to cost him anything, since my other neighbor and I were going to foot the bill.
12z NAM shows even a stronger 500 mb ridge (600). Most forecasts and models have dropped the wsw, or even sw motion in the 6-24 hrs range. This ridge is quite circular, so a motion below 270 is plausible, even at a quicker pace than forecasted. Also, the western US through is flatter (and more credible). And finally, as this thread shows, current motion has no poleward component to it. Next 48 hrs will be critical, and I think Euro and GFS will start to show some shift of their track to the south.
BTW I still think this is a Texas storm (I am not out of the woods, GFDL on the NOGAPS grid still likes me ), but Brownsville-just north of Corpus are my high risk zone.
Pearland should be OK in all but a huge cat5. If you can handle no power, for a weeks or two you are fine. If not then go if/when Rita turns north. As long as Rita is heading west you are cool.
Don't forget that last year Charlie exploded from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 in four hours. I wouldn't expect that to happen with Rita as the conditions are pretty uniform as she crosses the Gulf, but you're going to have to make that decision no later than Thursday evening, and that's probably pushing your luck. It will be the mother of all traffic jams.
I have been saying Tx/Mex border all along, just don't see a move north, but NHC is very very good.
So did Audrey, that's why hundreds of people died. They were told to get a good nights rest and they could leave first thing in the morning. Well she sped up and slammed them around 4am I think.
Breaking: Galveston mayor anticipates MANDATORY evacuation about 5pm tomorrow.
My attitude has always been, thank God that Andrew had a fast forward speed, but now I am wondering, if it had been moving more slowly, is it possible that it would have been a little weaker? I suppose that's not necessarily the case though.
In and of itself forward movement, as long as there is no shear, doesn't really affect strength. However in any landfalling situation a faster storm will carry stronger winds farther inland.
There is no evacuation route from San Leon, so the trafic ram will be so bad that only a big cat 4 or 5 would motovate me to attempt it.
Where is this one going?
Also, tropical storm force winds 39mph expected by Friday morning, sooner than previously thought.
Somewhere in Texas.
GFS track back N to just S of Galveston on the new 12Z run.
Traffic ram probably describes it perfectly. ;-)
You are so gonna get me fired.
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