Hurricane Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 20 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Michael Goldsberry]

My other house is in Sugar Land. I'm going to ride it out there.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

So what are your views on evacuating Galveston? Where are they taking these people? What liability are they incurring by doing so?

[eyespysomething]

So the upper right quadrant of Rita will pass over Key West, and the whole Keys? Is that right?

[MEG33]

That is too close to the action for me! Stay safe.

[LBelle]

I think he is a combo of jerk and oblivious, depending on the situation. It's not like it was going to cost him anything, since my other neighbor and I were going to foot the bill.

[shield]

From the Eastern Weather discussion forum, post 10:36 AM :

12z NAM shows even a stronger 500 mb ridge (600). Most forecasts and models have dropped the wsw, or even sw motion in the 6-24 hrs range. This ridge is quite circular, so a motion below 270 is plausible, even at a quicker pace than forecasted. Also, the western US through is flatter (and more credible). And finally, as this thread shows, current motion has no poleward component to it. Next 48 hrs will be critical, and I think Euro and GFS will start to show some shift of their track to the south.

BTW I still think this is a Texas storm (I am not out of the woods, GFDL on the NOGAPS grid still likes me ), but Brownsville-just north of Corpus are my high risk zone.

[jpsb]

Pearland should be OK in all but a huge cat5. If you can handle no power, for a weeks or two you are fine. If not then go if/when Rita turns north. As long as Rita is heading west you are cool.

[No Blue States]

"I'd wait a couple of more days. When is the cut off for canceling without penalty?"

I havent checked with them yet but decided any money I lose doesnt matter if a big hurricane is going to hit the area. I dont want to get in the way of residents returning and rebuilding.
But the area will need the tourist dollars im sure, ill wait at least 24 hrs to make a decision.
It doesnt look good with Dog Gones graphic showing 9 of 13 models with a TX landfall. Or the NHC forecast track.

We are looking forward to the vacation but it pales in comparison to what yall who live along the coast are dealing with. We could go north or west instead but there is no ocean there. :(
I almost feel guilty even mentioning it. Ill wait a day or 2 before canceling and see if the track changes.

[Dog Gone]

we will only have 24 hours to determine if we need to evacuate. Damn. Well good news is cat 3 will be surviveable (barely) where I'm at.

Don't forget that last year Charlie exploded from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 in four hours. I wouldn't expect that to happen with Rita as the conditions are pretty uniform as she crosses the Gulf, but you're going to have to make that decision no later than Thursday evening, and that's probably pushing your luck. It will be the mother of all traffic jams.

[jpsb]

I have been saying Tx/Mex border all along, just don't see a move north, but NHC is very very good.

[CajunConservative]

So did Audrey, that's why hundreds of people died. They were told to get a good nights rest and they could leave first thing in the morning. Well she sped up and slammed them around 4am I think.

[Miztiki]

Breaking: Galveston mayor anticipates MANDATORY evacuation about 5pm tomorrow.

[Sam Cree]

My attitude has always been, thank God that Andrew had a fast forward speed, but now I am wondering, if it had been moving more slowly, is it possible that it would have been a little weaker? I suppose that's not necessarily the case though.

[Strategerist]

In and of itself forward movement, as long as there is no shear, doesn't really affect strength. However in any landfalling situation a faster storm will carry stronger winds farther inland.

[jpsb]

There is no evacuation route from San Leon, so the trafic ram will be so bad that only a big cat 4 or 5 would motovate me to attempt it.

[jpsb]

Where is this one going?

[Miztiki]

Also, tropical storm force winds 39mph expected by Friday morning, sooner than previously thought.

[Strategerist]

Somewhere in Texas.

GFS track back N to just S of Galveston on the new 12Z run.

[Dog Gone]

Traffic ram probably describes it perfectly. ;-)

[numberonepal]

You were in control from the moment you bent over the pool table.

You are so gonna get me fired.