12z NAM shows even a stronger 500 mb ridge (600). Most forecasts and models have dropped the wsw, or even sw motion in the 6-24 hrs range. This ridge is quite circular, so a motion below 270 is plausible, even at a quicker pace than forecasted. Also, the western US through is flatter (and more credible). And finally, as this thread shows, current motion has no poleward component to it. Next 48 hrs will be critical, and I think Euro and GFS will start to show some shift of their track to the south.
BTW I still think this is a Texas storm (I am not out of the woods, GFDL on the NOGAPS grid still likes me ), but Brownsville-just north of Corpus are my high risk zone.
I have been saying Tx/Mex border all along, just don't see a move north, but NHC is very very good.