Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VIII

NOAA - NHC ^ | 29 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Category 4 Hurricane Katrina is approaching landfall in Eastern Louisiana. At 4:00AM EDT the storm's center was about 90 miles south of New Orleans.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Lake Ponchartrain Real Time Water Level

Wind Speed Data

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

Cut and Paste:

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_khou&props=livenoad

Fully-linked version of the live feeds (just in case a few people don't want to first open up WMP to cut-and-paste) -

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/

1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT

Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast

.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518 WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans via WESH-TV/DT Orlando - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38843.asx

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VII
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Robert A Cook PE]

Second point to consider: All that rain falling NOW right of NO hasn't combined (flowed together yet) into what little flood control drainage paths are available. (Some of which/many of which are going to be clogged with debris.)

BUT - all of the remaining rain up the Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley over the next 4 days of continual rainfall WILL eventually flow south into the same Mississippi flood plain. A few days after that, and ALL of that water will going into and through NO through what's left of the dikes.

IF there were holes in the initial pass of the hurricane, then the river water will cause even more flooding when it goes past.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 27
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 29, 2005

The eye of Hurricane Katrina is making its second northern Gulf
Coast landfall...near the Louisiana-Mississippi border.  WSR-88D
radar data show that the northern eyewall is very intense and
Doppler velocities are near 120 kt at an altitude of about 5000 ft
over extreme southern Mississippi.  This...along with observations
from Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft...supports
the current intensity estimate of 110 kt.  Steady weakening will
occur as the center moves over land.  However Katrina has such a
large and powerful circulation that it will probably retain
hurricane intensity for about 12 hours...bringing damaging winds
well inland.  The potential loss of life due to falling trees is a
major concern...as is freshwater flooding.   

The forward speed has increased slightly and initial motion is now
360/14.  The track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged. 
Katrina should accelerate north-northeastward in the flow between a
cyclone north of the Great Lakes and an anticyclone near the
southeastern United States coast over the next few days.  Katrina
is expected to lose tropical characteristics...and its identity...
later in the forecast period as it merges with a mid-latitude
cyclone.

Special thanks are extended to the United States Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter crews stationed at Keesler Air Force Base in
Biloxi Mississippi...who have been flying continuous missions
through Katrina even as their families and homes are being
seriously impacted by this hurricane.

Forecaster Pasch

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      29/1500z 30.2n  89.6w   110 kt
 12hr VT     30/0000z 32.3n  89.3w    65 kt...inland
 24hr VT     30/1200z 35.4n  88.3w    40 kt...inland
 36hr VT     31/0000z 39.0n  86.0w    30 kt...inland
 48hr VT     31/1200z 42.0n  82.5w    25 kt...extratropical
 72hr VT     01/1200z 47.5n  72.5w    25 kt...extratropical
 96hr VT     02/1200z 51.5n  67.0w    20 kt...extratropical
120hr VT     03/1200z...absorbed

[Diddle E. Squat]

I second the motion that you shutup with your nonstop cynicism. You have no idea what the actual damage is out there, nor whether this has been overblown or not. Can't know for hours. There are now reports from the NE side of the city that with the wind from the north, the lake is overtopping the levees, which if it continues is part of the worst case scenario that would flood the bowl. We won't know for hours if that continued and worsened, or subsided in time. Overtopping is the worst that can occur to a dam/levee, which can, if sustained, cause structural failure. There is confirmed water up to the roof from a levee break in another separate section of the city(its own levee). You have no idea how deep it is or if persons are trapped.

[sfimom]

I don't havea link but I heard that at least one children's hospital only evacuated the first floor.....

[cyborg]

LOL

[Mercat]

Don't tell GOD how big your storm is. Tell the storm how big your GOD is.

[Chasaway]

I don't know if it's just me, but I'm getting what looks like raw video on what was the WDSY streaming video. It's like two guys driving around in a car in the hurricane. Anyone else getting this?!

[sarasota]

Mix some peroxide with Tide and scrub with a toothbrush. Let rest for a couple of hours, rinse and re-apply until the stain is gone.

[HamiltonJay]

My sister told me this morning that her 7 year-old asked why almost all the people in the line were black.

So, did your sister tell her the REAL REASONS? Poverty is a product of familial and societal decay, not skin color. Single parenthood destroys societies... and that urban black communities have been choking themselves to death on the government checks for several generations now?

Or did she cop out and Go PC, and just go with they are poor and society is racist?

[FreeAtlanta]

My wife and I couldn't figure out why they didn't reverse the southbound lanes. We also were wondering why they didn't use school busses to get everyone out. I am sure that thousands could have been brought in from surrounding states.

[Spktyr]

Either:
1) It was occupied. (shudder)
2) When it was crushed, the headlight system shorted (not uncommon in that model).

[shield]

What happened to the great conservative 'David Asman'? Bill Hammer is a liberal loon...WHERE IS DAVID ASMAN?

[bobdsmith]

Why does it sound dumb?

Must be Bush's fault

[boss man]

Roger that.

Wait'll next Monday afternoon.

Ole Miss will really get knocked then by the TIGERS on ESPN.

[Steve_Seattle]

"I agree, it was a diverse representation of people, probably a fair representation of the population there."

It looked to me that at least 90% of the people at the Superdome were black. I don't know if NO is 90% black, but my assumption was that this was not a cross-section of the city, but mostly low-income people with no way to get out of town.

[dirtboy]

It is about the city not doing a damn thing for the poor, not the blacks.

It's staggering that they didn't have a plan in place to get everyone out of the city who wanted to get out. What would it take - 1,500 school busses from around the state picking up people and taking them to shelters further inland? The city planners diced with death and apparently didn't get snake eyes this time. But it was only a matter of miles and minutes that kept it from being far worse.

[jeffers]

"
Refineries capable of processing some 1.6 million barrels a day have shut down, they include:

-- Chevron's 325,000 barrel a day refinery in Pascagoula, Miss.

-- ConocoPhillips' 255,000 barrel a day Alliance refinery, south of New Orleans.

-- Valero Energy Corp.'s 260,000 barrel a day refinery in St. Charles.

-- Murphy Oil Corp.'s 120,000 barrel a day refinery in Meraux, La.

-- Exxon Mobil Corp.'s 183,000 barrel a day refinery in Chalmette, La.

-- Motiva Enterprises' 225,000-barrel a day Norco refinery, and its 235,000-barrel-a-day Convent
refinery.

-- Marathon's 245,000 barrel a day Garyville, La. refinery.
"

Shut down to ride out the storm or shut down due to damage?

[NautiNurse]

Not pissed off as much as we are tired after supporting our FReepers in harm's way for several days.

[nwctwx]

When the news is overblown and exxagerated, I will point it out.

This will easily be the worst storm since Andrew, and might surpass it. So, you should probably stop making light of the situation.

[Rennes Templar]

There was some discussion and info about Hemmer back in thread no. VI I believe. Bottom line is, he's a nice guy, finally got out of CNN, it was too liberal for him, CNN was glad to see him go, and he's glad to be with Fox.