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Posted on 08/28/2005 2:38:16 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. Thousands of people did not evacuate New Orleans. Outer bands of Katrina are reaching the Louisiana coast.
Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be in their safe locations.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
There is currently a due north wobble on the radar, but she is generally sticking to the nnw track. Even if she does go more northerly that brings her straight across about 30M E of NO. No way she gets any further E than pascagoula, and I give that a 10% chance at best. This will be an east LA, Gulfport, Biloxi landfall.
The cloudtops are warming. IT is called a fluctuation, if you look at almost all hurricanes, this happens late in the day (don't know the mechanics.) Then the clouds cool and deepen through the night. She may be slightly weaker , maybe 160 now, but she will crank back up before landfall. There is still no sheer, despite Steve Lyons wishful thinking and she is going tobe over the warmest water she has encountered in about 3 hrs. And that water holds 92 degrees all the way to landfall.
I think an estimate of hundred is far too low. It depends on how many idiots like my wife's cousin think the levees will protect them.
I really haven't been this upset in years. I need to turn off the computer and television and go for a run or something. My head is about to explode, and I don't even have a headache.
WHAT?!?
what are these people thinking.
CORRECTION:
I know those morons AREN'T thinking in the first place.
I can't comment on the eventual course of the Mississippi, but I'd say the chances of having a navigable channel on Tuesday are zero in the absence of a Dennis-like weakening before landfall.
Miles and miles of windblown sand in the wrong place that all has to be dredged before the Mississippi opens up again.
I dunno, I'm only a lowly mechanical designer working on my engineering degree very slowly but, the Superdome looks like a mushroom to me, I've seen mushrooms stick around through some pretty hefty storms a few small unrecorded twisters, while working on my grandparents farm during the summers.
To me, the only thing I would worry about is the vibrations. We had a bridge here in Philly shake violently and crack during a nice sunny afternoon due to the way a gust of wind cut through it's structure.
See for example my post 104 on the following linked thread (one of several such I posted earlier): http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1472213/posts?page=104#104
I don't think Shep will live. This is unbelievable that he is staying in this hotel. Why the hell didn't he get out or at least go to the Super Dome.
Even Geraldo isn't there..that should tell him something.
Shep seems just a little intense. Mrs Kjam says he must have torqued the boss somewhere along the line :)
I'm not sure that a windbag can function adequately as a sandbag.
I really appreciate your vortex data updates--thank you!
Doean't it make you wonder how the government will be able to help in the event of a large terrorist attack. I believe we will be all on our own.
I suppose those businesses figure that boarded windows won't keep water out. It's just so sad.
I'll bet the guy would never have made the call to evac without the president calling.
Mr. Mayor, please EVACUATE you have the legal authority!
Amen
My bet is that the superdome has a generator.
There's a guy with a surfboard in the Alabama surf as Katrina head for NOLA.
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