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Posted on 08/27/2005 8:05:55 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
A dome is the best roof to withstand winds.
Not really. SE LA does stick out into the GOM, so it's possible that more hurricanes would come near it thanks to that fact.
That was 1900...that was in the days when all deaths were reported. We live in a different day...and deaths are known to be underreported...
Is a Cat. 5 even possible that far north? The water needed to fuel such just doesn't get warm enough near Delaware, and I'm guessing that Ches. Bay isn't wide enough to sustain a 5.
No, I don't think so. There are some very warm waters leading up to NO, so perhaps the storm might be funneled there... But that's just speculation on my part.
You read the book too?
It was awful. A category 5 f**k-up by the federal govt. Hundreds of WWI vets dead as well as many locals killed because of incompetence.
I've been down in that area (and saw the memorial in Islamorada) and I'm amazed that anyone could have survived it.
TY :)
Cool website, thanks for the heads up.
Thanks!! Here I am a texan amd I got the year wrong:)
Thank you for posting this link. I remember that it was a big one. Knew a guy who was in Slidell at the time- he left.
The Atlantic is heating up, which is what is fueling all of these hurricanes with more frequency and strength, with the potential to stray farther north. It may be cyclical, it may be fossil fuel global warming, stay tuned.
"Several sources consider Hurricane Camille the largest single act of destruction in United States history (until Hurricane Andrew in 1992). To this day, Camille remains the most extreme meteorological event to take place in North America. Although there is some question as to the total death toll, the best estimates are - 255 people killed, and 8,900 injured. A number of people (50 - 75) were never found. Nearly 14,000 housing units were damaged, and 6,000 others were totally destroyed (Coburn 1977). The total damage from Camille was $4.2 billion ( in 1969 dollars). As of the 2001 hurricane season, Camille remains the most intense hurricane to enter the United States mainland."
To what's possible from Katrina:
"That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles. At the same time, high winds and tornadoes would tear at everything left standing. Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross.
Hundreds of thousands would be left homeless, and it would take months to dry out the area and begin to make it livable. But there wouldn't be much for residents to come home to. The local economy would be in ruins.
The scene has been played out for years in computer models and emergency-operations simulations. Officials at the local, state and national level are convinced the risk is genuine and are devising plans for alleviating the aftermath of a disaster that could leave the city uninhabitable for six months or more. The Army Corps of Engineers has begun a study to see whether the levees should be raised to counter the threat. But officials say that right now, nothing can stop "the big one." ...
"Filling the bowl" is the worst potential scenario for a natural disaster in the United States, emergency officials say. The Red Cross' projected death toll dwarfs estimates of 14,000 dead from a major earthquake along the New Madrid, Mo., fault, and 4,500 dead from a similar catastrophic earthquake hitting San Francisco, the next two deadliest disasters on the agency's list.
The projected death and destruction eclipse almost any other natural disaster that people paid to think about catastrophes can dream up...."
Probably not. Not only is it the warmth of the water but the hurricane draws in energy from all sides. That's why they tend to weaken as they approach land. Almost half the fuel for the storm is cut off. Also an approach perpendicular to land and fast would provide less weakening. As a hurricane went up along the coast it would have a much longer time of having less fuel i.e. heat and moisture.
Yes. I've been checking them from time to time. I'm putting up my shutters in the morning. My concern is that the last two hurricanes have just missed me by doing a last minute(s) turn to the east. If this one does the same, well, you know where that puts me. So...a little precaution never hurts.
Now 935 mb.... continuing down...
That's a good question. The bays aren't wide enough to sustain a 5, but it doesn't have to be a 5 to do damage. The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast have seen its share of hurricanes. There was a cat 1 or 2 hurricane in the 1970s that hit the Susquehanna River valley, and flooded Wilkes-Barre, PA, and many other communities along the banks, killing a bunch of people.
Katrina Rapidly Intensifying, Heads For Shore Posted: 12:50 AM 28 August 2005
This evening, Katrina has completed an eyewall replacement cycle and is currently intensifying at a rapid pace, with its appearance on satellite imagery growing more impressive by the hour and pressures falling at a fairly substantial rate within the center of the storm, currently at 936mb. Normally, this would support a storm near category 4 intensity; however, the maximum flight level winds found within the storm so far this evening have been 114kt, equating to a weak category 3 at the surface. This has been the trend so far with the storm -- to have lower wind speeds than the pressures would normally support -- but whether or not this continues remains to be seen.
Nevertheless, as the storm nears the diurnal convective max, moves further away from the eyewall replacement cycle, and hits the outer fringes of the Loop Current, the storm should continue to intensify through the overnight hours, potentially reaching beyond category 4 intensity by late morning Sunday.
Another eyewall replacement cycle is likely before landfall, but trying to predict the timing of such an event is beyond our capabilities at this point in time. First, the intensity forecast. Microwave data from around 8p ET suggest a very-well organized system with a developing eye (confirmed by recon) and a solid CDO feature. Buoys and satellite data indicate that sea surface temperatures ahead of the storm are slightly warmer than those it has just passed. As an aside, the intensity of the storm as it passed near the Dry Tortugas can be seen in the buoy data from that location earlier today, where the SST dropped from 85.5F to 82F over the course of a 24hr span. Nevertheless, SSTs ahead of the storm are around 90F, with sub-surface temperatures well into the mid 80s (as supported by a 89ft measurement of 88F at a reporting station about 100mi south of the projected landfall point).
(snip)
It is not out of the question for this storm to reach category 5 intensity sometime between now and then; given inner-core fluctuations, however, I do not believe that the storm would landfall at quite that intensity. Nevertheless, winds of 145-150mph are possible with this storm as it makes landfall.
(snip)
There is good agreement on landfall occurring early in the afternoon on Monday, though conditions will begin to deteriorate through the evening hours on Sunday. Given the agreement in the model guidance and how the steering flow is currently playing out, I feel reasonably confident in projecting a landfall along the SE coast of Louisiana between 10a-4p CT on Monday afternoon. This would take the storm slightly east of New Orleans -- a dangerous surge and flooding scenario for the city, to say the least -- and inland near the mouth of the Pearl River.
This track would also send high waves and surge well to the east of the storm, potentially flooding the coastline from Mississippi eastward to Escambia Bay, FL. Heavy rain will also be a concern with the storm, but given its intensity and track is not the greatest threat at this time.
I cannot emphasize enough the danger to the entire northern Gulf coast with the forecast track of this storm -- whether mine or the NHC's, which are in large agreement. Note that a track over SE Louisiana would result in very little weakening of the storm by the time it approached New Orleans given the marshy conditions of the lowlands near the Gulf shore.
(snip)
There is still some uncertainty as to where this landfall point will be, meaning that those in the warning area (as of the 11p NHC advisory) should seriously consider leaving for higher ground and rushing to completion all precuations to protect life and property.
To put it bluntly, get out now while you still have a chance. This has the potential to be a once-in-a-lifetime catastrophe at this point in time. Find a shelter, find relatives outside of the warning area, or simply find a hotel -- just do not hesitate to leave until it may be too late -- i.e. Sunday night.
Rest at link. ==================================
Lethal and dire predictions everywhere for those poor folks .. tomorrow's going to be harrowing for those who are elderly, disabled, without resources and vehicles and those attempting this last-minute lifesaving exercise. More prayers.
Doesn't help me much. I commute 100 miles per day.
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